1. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meetings 2005 SRNWP Business Meeting 5 October 2005 Ljubljana (Slovenia) Short-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Programme

2. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)2 Agenda The Network of Consortia Programme OPERA: Compositing necessary EUCOS II (2007 – 2011): Action required Soundings: BUFR besides TEMP STORMNET (Dominique) Model comparison Hub for high resolution precipitation observations Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs GPS Zenital Total Delays SRNWP PEPS Other points

3. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)3 Agenda The Network of Consortia Programme OPERA: Compositing necessary EUCOS II (2007 – 2011): Action required Soundings: BUFR besides TEMP STORMNET (Dominique) Model comparison Hub for high resolution precipitation observations Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs GPS Zenital Total Delays SRNWP PEPS

4. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)4 The Network of Consortia HIRLAM Denmark*, Finland*, Iceland*, Ireland*,Netherlands*, Norway*, Spain*, Sweden* COSMO Germany*, Greece*, Italy*, Poland (Warsaw Branch), Romania, Switzerland* ALADIN Austria*, Belgium*, France*, Portugal*,Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary*,Moldova, Poland (Cracow Branch), Romania,Slovakia, Slovenia ALADIN – LACE Austria*, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary*,Slovakia, Slovenia UKMO United Kingdom* 26 NWS are Members of the SRNWP Programme * EUMETNET Member

5. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)5 Agenda The Network of Consortia Programme OPERA: Compositing necessary EUCOS II (2007 – 2011): Action required Soundings: BUFR besides TEMP STORMNET (Dominique) Model comparison Hub for high resolution precipitation observations Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs GPS Zenital Total Delays SRNWP PEPS Other points

6. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)6 OPERA II 2004-2006 Responsible Member: FMI ; Project Manager: Asko Huuskonen Data hub at the Met Office: rain. Also VAD and VVP (wind profiles). From the OPERA Programme Decision, Point E: - To compile a set of European reference product and quality algorithms. Planned from the OPERA Programme was a European composite that the Met Office would produce every day (00-24 UTC accumulated rain). From the “List of Decisions” of the 23rd EUMETNET Council, 14th Dec. 2004 under OPERA: “20’000 euro will be released to start the developments of the hub system, excluding any work on compositing” Reason (Minutes Final Draft of C23, page 3): “rain accumulation products had a commercial value and, therefore, [...] would place the OPERA programme in competition with the private sector”

7. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)7 Recommendation At the 12th Meeting of the SRNWP Programme held the 5th of October 2005 in Ljubljana, the NWS delegates passed the following recommendation: The European Short-Range NWP community asks the EUMETNET Council to recall its decision taken at its 23th Meeting (14th of December 2004 in Reading) to exclude from the OPERA Programme “any work on compositing” (Point 1 of the List of Decisions). Radar compositing is needed by the Short-range NWP community for - validation and verification of the precipitations of the meso-scale LAMs - definition of better initial conditions by assimilation of precipitations It would be a waste of time and resources if the same work (holding the radar data from the hub and making a composite) should be done in several NWS.

8. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)8 Agenda The Network of Consortia Programme OPERA: Compositing necessary EUCOS II (2007 – 2011): Action required Soundings: BUFR besides TEMP STORMNET (Dominique) Model comparison Hub for high resolution precipitation observations Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs GPS Zenital Total Delays SRNWP PEPS Other points

9. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)9 Purpose of EUCOS Agreed by EUMETNET Council in November 2000: “EUCOS is the ground-based observing system designed to serve the needs of General Numerical Weather Prediction (GNWP) over Europe” Aim of the EUCOS preparatory phase (2000-2001): “To define an optimised design for a composite observing system which would serve regional scale numerical weather prediction requirements” Aim of present phase of EUCOS (2002-2006): Deployment of this composite observing system. EUCOS terminates the 31st of December 2006. A second phase (2007-2011) is planed

10. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)10 Red: EUCOS Upper Air Design Blue: Other radiosondes This figure illustrates the current complete Upper Air Network in Europe from which the current EUCOS designated radiostations were selected

11. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)11 The revised observing system EUCOS considered that the experienced development and implementation these last years of new observing systems such as - wind profilers - radar wind profiles (VAD and VVD) and - the massive growth of AMDAR would allow to significantly reduce the number of upper-air soundings stations.

12. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)12 E-AMDAR Network The E-AMDAR network has developed significantly since the time of preparing the original EUCOS upper-air design, as illustrated below:

13. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)13 31 selected radiosondes and 2 ocean platforms The EUCOS Radiosonde Network Redesign

14. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)14 3 and 6 hourly AMDAR profile 2008 potential

15. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)15 Selected daily E-AMDAR profile coverage

16. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)16 The proposed revised EUCOS design

17. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)17

18. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)18 Recommendation Considering that the Proposed Revised Design presented in the “Review of the EUCOS Upper-Air Network Design” of 18 May 2005 does not consider the observational requirements needed for the high-resolution short-range NWP models, the European Short-Range NWP community asks the EUCOS Programme Board and the EUCOS Advisory Group to significantly increased the density of observations and to make sure that this density remain sufficient at night. More generally, the delegates of the 12th Meeting of the SRNWP Programme held the 5th of October 2005 in Ljubljana ask that in the second phase of the EUCOS Programme (2007- 2011) the same attention, priority and resources be given for the observation of the meso-scale as it will be done for the observation of the synoptic scale.

19. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)19 Agenda The Network of Consortia Programme OPERA: Compositing necessary EUCOS II (2007 – 2011): Action required Soundings: BUFR besides TEMP STORMNET (Dominique) Model comparison Hub for high resolution precipitation observations Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs GPS Zenital Total Delays SRNWP PEPS Other points

20. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)20 Migration to Binary Code BUFR code for dissemination of radiosonde data would permit - exact time of measurement - transmission of the actual sonde coordinates during ascent - higher vertical resolution data - simpler code (no A-, B-, C-, D-group) Vaisala has indicated that his sonde and software are already able to provide the information in BUFR, but some implementation work is needed at the NWS. The WWW Department of the WMO is making efforts to encourage migration to binary based code. Europe could play in this effort a leading role.

21. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)21 Recommendation At the 12th Meeting of the EUMETNET SRNWP Programme held the 5th of October 2005 in Ljubljana, the NWS delegates ask the EUCOS Manager to take the necessary measures in order to make sure that the dissemination on the GTS of the radiosonde data between the European NWS will take place in BUFR code as encouraged by the WWW Department of the WMO and as stipulated by the 14th Session of the WMO-RA VI* (5 -15 September 2005 in Heidelberg). * the relevant WMO document is not yet publicly available (21 Oct. 2005)

22. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)22 Agenda The Network of Consortia Programme OPERA: Compositing necessary EUCOS II (2007 – 2011): Action required Soundings: BUFR besides TEMP STORMNET (Dominique) Model comparison Hub for high resolution precipitation observations Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs GPS Zenital Total Delays SRNWP PEPS Other points

23. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)23 Agenda The Network of Consortia Programme OPERA: Compositing necessary EUCOS II (2007 – 2011): Action required Soundings: BUFR besides TEMP STORMNET (Dominique) Model comparison Hub for high resolution precipitation observations Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs GPS Zenital Total Delays SRNWP PEPS Other points

24. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)24 Model comparison Three times – in Council or ICWED Meetings – our Directors have expressed the wish of a model comparison over Europe It has to be cheap. Thus only our basic models will be compared: - LM (version run by the DWD) - Aladin-France (Toulouse) - HIRLAM (reference version at FMI) - UM (North-Atlantic / Europe version)

25. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)25 Facts Today the Met Office compares daily the precipitations of these 4 models over Great-Britain (24-hourly accumulated) The Met Office has been chosen for this comparison as the task will consist in an extension of the above mentioned work

26. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)26 Plan Verified will be from T+0 to T+48 at 6h intervals: - precipitations - mean sea level pressure - 2m temperature - 10m wind Scores for precipitations: - frequency bias - equitable threat score - log-odds ratio - Hansen-Kuipers skill score

27. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)27 Results and Costs Results Monthly mean statistics will be calculated and published on the Met Office external internet site under password protection Costs The costs that will be submitted to the EUMETNET Council will amount to the salary of a scientist for 9 months per year

28. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)28 Agenda The Network of Consortia Programme OPERA: Compositing necessary EUCOS II (2007 – 2011): Action required Soundings: BUFR besides TEMP STORMNET (Dominique) Model comparison Hub for high resolution precipitation observations Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs GPS Zenital Total Delays SRNWP PEPS Other points

29. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)29 Data hub for high resolution, non GTS, 24-hourly accumulated daily precipitations The spatial density of the SYNOP precipitations is absolutely inadequate for the validation and verification of the very high resolution models Creation of a “data hub for precipitation observations” as already done by EUMETNET at the Met Office for the radar, wind-profiler and GPS ZTD data (“one stop chop” strategy)

30. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)30 Situation today in Europe Who is collecting today in Europe 24-hourly accumulated high-resolution precipitation observations? DWD (for Consortium COSMO) ECMWF (data from the Members) EU Project ENSEMBLES EUROGRID show-case (non yet accepted) Report in the SRNWP web site http://srnwp.cscs.ch/Documents/HighResolutionPrecipitations.htm

31. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)31 Candidates Two very good candidates: = DWD - does already this work for the COSMO Members - collects 24-hourly accumulated precipitations from some 4’500 stations = ECMWF - receives the data from the Members and associated Members - collects 24-hourly accumulated precipitations from some 17’000 stations - makes gridded analyses

32. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)32 Agenda The Network of Consortia Programme OPERA: Compositing necessary EUCOS II (2007 – 2011): Action required Soundings: BUFR besides TEMP STORMNET (Dominique) Model comparison Hub for high resolution precipitation observations Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs GPS Zenital Total Delays SRNWP PEPS Other points

33. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)33 Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs Action now endorsed by EUCOS

34. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)34

35. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)35

36. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)36 Agenda The Network of Consortia Programme OPERA: Compositing necessary EUCOS II (2007 – 2011): Action required Soundings: BUFR besides TEMP STORMNET (Dominique) Model comparison Hub for high resolution precipitation observations Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs GPS Zenital Total Delays SRNWP PEPS Other points

37. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)37 GPS Zenital Total Delays At its 24th Meeting (April 2005), the EUMETNET Council adapted the E-GVAP Programme (EUCOS-GPS Water Vapour). DMI as Responsible Member (Henrik Vedel) The Met Office will run the data hub. The Met Office already collects radar data (rain and winds) and wind profiler data. >>> the data hub strategy (one stop chop) begins to become effective

38. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)38 Agenda The Network of Consortia Programme OPERA: Compositing necessary EUCOS II (2007 – 2011): Action required Soundings: BUFR besides TEMP STORMNET (Dominique) Model comparison Hub for high resolution precipitation observations Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs GPS Zenital Total Delays SRNWP PEPS Other points

39. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)39 SRNWP-PEPS a regional multi-model ensemble in Europe Internet: www.dwd.de/PEPS Short-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Programme EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005 3-5 October 2005 Ljubljana (Slovenia) Presentation of Michael Denhard

40. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)40 20 weather services / 23 forecast products Denmark HIRLAM 16 ECMWF +60h 0, 6, 12, 18 Finland HIRLAM 22 ECMWF +54h 0, 6, 12, 18 Ireland HIRLAM 16 ECMWF +48h 0, 6, 12, 18 Netherlands HIRLAM 22 ECMWF +48h 0, 6, 12, 18 Spain HIRLAM 22 ECMWF +24h 0, 12 Norway I HIRLAM 11 ECMWF +30h 0, 12 Norway II HIRLAM 22 ECMWF +30h 0, 12 Sweden I HIRLAM 11 ECMWF +48h 0, 6, 12, 18 Sweden II HIRLAM 22 ECMWF +48h 0, 6, 12, 18 Belgium ALADIN 15 ARPEGE +60h 0, 12 Austria ALADIN-AUSTRIA 9.6 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12 France ALADIN-FRANCE 11 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12 Croatia ALADIN-LACE 8.9 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12 Czech Rep. ALADIN-LACE 11 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12 Hungary ALADIN-LACE 11 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12 Slovakia ALADIN-LACE 11 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12 Slovenia ALADIN-LACE 9.5 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12 UK I UKMO-LAM 12 UM global +48h 0, 6, 12, 18 UK II UKMO-EU 12 UM global +48h 0, 6, 12, 18 Germany LM 7 GME +48h 0, 12, 18 Switzerland aLMo 7 ECMWF +72h 0, 12 Italy Euro LM 7 EuroHRM +60h 0 Poland LM 14 GME +72h 0, 12

41. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)41 PEPS-Grid with a grid spacing of 0.0625° (~7 km) covering Europe The ensemble size depends on location and every PEPS grid point has its own probability distribution Probabilities (Nearest Neighbour) SRNWP-PEPS

42. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)42 Ensemble Products Ensemble mean. Forecast periods +06...+30h (24 hours), +06...+18h and +18...+30h (12 hours) Total precipitation (accumulation), sum of convective and large scale precipitation Total snow (accumulation) ), sum of convective and large scale snow Maximum 10 m wind speed Maximum 10 m wind gust speed 2 m minimum/maximum temperature Probabilistic products. Forecast period +06...+30h (24 hours) Probabilities of total precipitation Thresholds: > 25, > 40, > 70 mm Probabilities of total snow Thresholds:> 1, > 5, > 10, > 20 cm Probabilities of maximum wind speed Thresholds: > 10, > 15, > 20, > 25 m/s Probabilities of maximum wind gust speed Thresholds: > 10, > 15, > 20, > 25, > 33 m/s Probabilistic products. Forecast periods +06...+18h and +18...+30h (12 hours) Probabilities of total precipitation Thresholds: > 20, > 50, > 100 mm Probabilities of total snow Thresholds: > 1, > 5, > 10, > 20 cm Probabilities of maximum wind speed Thresholds: > 10, > 15, > 20, > 25 m/s Probabilities of maximum wind gust speedThresholds: > 10, > 15, > 20, > 25, > 33 m/s

43. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)43 Maximum Ensemble Size depends on main run and meteorological parameter Maximum Ensemble Size Total precip. Total snow Wind speed Windgust speed Temperature 00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC 2019208 767-7 19208 87818

44. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)44 Ensemble Mean 21/01/2005 00 UTC +06...30

45. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)45 21/01/2005 00 UTC +06...30

46. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)46 Cut-off times SRNWP-PEPS runs operationally since December 2004

47. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)47 Mask of areas without sufficient models Wind gusts provided by COSMO and some ALADIN countries statistical estimation of wind gusts within PEPS? Statistics of availability of models Additional products more synoptic oriented parameters indices of convectivity Precipitation median instead of mean lower thresholds PEPS-Meteograms (provided by Meteoswiss ) runningunder wayplanned

48. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)48 Validation Comparison with COSMO-LEPS Scoring probabilistic forecasts Ensemble Calibration Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) Raftery et. al., 2005 BMA for precipitation runningunder wayplanned

49. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)49 Thank you to the contributing Weather Services !

50. EWGLAM/SRNWP Annual Meeting 2005, 3-5 October 2005, Ljubljana (Slovenia)50 Agenda The Network of Consortia Programme OPERA: Compositing necessary EUCOS II (2007 – 2011): Action required Soundings: BUFR besides TEMP STORMNET (Dominique) Model comparison Hub for high resolution precipitation observations Dissemination of hourly SYNOPs GPS Zenital Total Delays SRNWP PEPS Other points