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Dummy variables in the simple dynamic model.

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Presentation on theme: "Dummy variables in the simple dynamic model."— Presentation transcript:

1 Dummy variables in the simple dynamic model

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5 Dummy variables and the VAR

6 The simplified model can be written as: The expected value of the process and the cointegration relations becomes:

7 The dynamic properties of the data can now be expressed as: where It is easy to see that:

8 Illustration

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10 Are the observed outliers additive or innovational?

11 An additive outlier in real money stock

12 The Danish VAR model with dummy variables

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14 The unrestricted VAR with dummies

15 We need to distinguish between:

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