1. Microsimulation in the UK: the current state of play Dr Paul Williamson Dept. of Geography University of Liverpool

2. ModelInstitutionStaticDynamicABMTax-benefitDemographicOtherPublic MultipleDWPXXXX MultipleTreasuryXXXX PPIXXX IFSXX OPERAStirlingXXX MOSESLeedsXX SCOTSIMLiverpoolXX SAGEMODSouthamptonXXX SimBritainSheffieldXXX EUROMODEssexXXX LawsonEssexX?XXX AndersonEssex S-ParamicsSIASXXX SimDELTADSCXXX SOCSIMLSEXXX CARESIMUEAXXX FEARLUSMLURIX ADaPTSouthamptonXX ?YorkX ?LeedsXXX Current MSM in the UK: an overview

5. % of non-fitting synthetic combinations PARTIALLY CONSTRAINED DISTRIBUTIONS DistributionRural (South West) ‘Middling England’ (East Mids.) Deprived industrial (North) Deprived urban (Outer London) SEG / Household composition 0000 SEG / Rooms0.5000 Household composition / Dependants 0000 Dependants / Tenure0000 Sex / marital status / tenure 161.5 3.0 Illness / sex01.500 Synthetically estimated spatial microdata

6. Telephony: 2005/6 Simulated household weekly telephone bill (landlines) (FES 2005/6) EEDA, LSOA level Ward level comparison with BT billing data (EEDA, Ward level) Spearman rho = 0.7796, p < 0.001

7. Simulated ‘work time’ ONS Time-Use Survey (2001) and Census 2001 East of England, LSOA Validation: –(Spearman rho = 0.8404, p < 0.001) –Strong correlation with Census 2001 ‘work time’

8. % More happy than usual 2001 2011

9. Happiness & Life Events EventCorrelation Top 5 negative associations Relationships (mine ending)-0.178 Death (parent)-0.166 Healthparent-0.139 Death (other)-0.137 Employment job loss-0.129 Top Five positive associations Relationships (mine starting)0.160 Employment job gain0.097 Finance (house)0.097 Pregnancy (mine)0.084 Pregnancy (child's)0.053

10. OPERA (1) Costs (% disposable income) of various Local Tax structures

11. (2) Change in costs given changing Dementia prevalence

12. Workflow Research Object Portlet MOSES

14. Simulation Database Aggregate To Migrant Population Aggregate To Vacant Dwellings Migrant generation model Spatial Interaction Model Compute dwelling preference for each migrant Update Location and Dwelling Characteristics 1 4 3 2 5 2 ‘Conventional’ migration distribution procedure

15. ABM in MOSES Observed MSM ABM

16. Modelling Individual Consumer Behaviour

17. ABM v. MSM?

18. t4t4 t1t1 t2t2 t3t3 The Global Epidemic Simulator

19. Modelling Needs and Resources of Older People to 2030 (MAP2030)

20. SOCSIM

21. Average number of living grand children and grand parents (complete)

22. CARESIM: adding new cohort of people now aged 45-64 + Need to simulate pensions & retirement

23. CONCLUSION In a number of fields UK MSM is world-leading Challenges All models Maintenance/updating/upgrading/validation Increased collaboration Increasing user base Academic models Greater public policy influence