1. Mapping future snow cover in Idaho Brandon C. Moore University of Idaho

2. Outline Model Development Validation Results Future Research

3. Model Development Why start from scratch?  Develop in-depth understanding  Complicated models Inputs  Temperature  Precipitation Outputs  Snow cover  SWE  Snow depth  Snow density  Runoff

4. Model Development Anderson, E.A., 1976. Brown, R.D., B. Brasnett, and D. Robinson., 2003. Singh and Singh.

5. Model Validation Validation at “high quality” SnoTEL locations  Determined by experienced SnoTEL users Force snow model with observed monthly temperature and precipitation Provides baseline of quality of the model

6. Model Validation

7. Remote Sensing Imagery  Snow Cover Extent  Snow Water Equivalent Hydrologic model comparisons USGS streamflow data

8. Model Results Modeled April 1974 snow cover for the state of Idaho

9. Model Results Modeled April 2093 snow cover for the state of Idaho

10. Model Results Modeled April 2077 snow cover for the state of Idaho

11. Model Results Trend in the fraction of Idaho snow covered.

12. Model Results Elevation trend in statewide snow cover

13. Model Results Figure from Mote et al, 2005

14. Model Results March trend in SWE (1950- 1999)

15. Future Research Model Validation  As outlined previously Multiple downscaled climate scenarios  GISS-ER, IPSL-CM4, CCSM3, PCM1 Move toward finer spatial resolution  1/8 th degree to 1/16 th degree

16. Future Research Snow Cover Imagery  1990 – 2003 NOHRSC Difficulties  Multiple formats  Projection Issues  Spatial Resolution  2001 – present MOD10A2 8-day composite  Dataset for the Western US