1. Fifth European Space Weather Week 17 th - 21 st November 2008, Page 1 SSA Programme Fifth European Space Weather Week 17 – 21 November 2008, Bruxelles N.Bobrinsky, ESA

2. Fifth European Space Weather Week 17 th - 21 st November 2008, Page 2 Need for a European SSA  Space assets have become indispensable enablers for a wide spectrum of applications. The European independent utilisation of space for research or services depends on the capability to safely operate the European space infrastructures.  SSA serves the implementation of the strategic missions of the European Space Policy based on peaceful use of outer space by all states, by supporting the autonomous capacity to securely and safely operate the critical European space infrastructures  Space based capabilities are indispensable to realise this commitment in an effective manner. The dependency on these space based assets will grow, as evident also outside Europe. This dependency raises concerns, because any shutdown of even a part of the space infrastructure would have major consequences for economic activities and would considerably impair the organisation of e.g. emergency services.  SSA also serves the EU “Lisbon objectives” by supporting the development of new applications, new jobs and new market opportunities in the space sector  Space Situational Awareness can be seen as a basis for any future measures (political, diplomatic, regulatory, technical) to guarantee access to space

3. Fifth European Space Weather Week 17 th - 21 st November 2008, Page 3 Status of ESA’s initiative supporting the establishment of a European SSA ESA has performed in 2006-2008 several industrial studies, the outcome of which was:  the compilation of a SSA Users’ Needs list (established by a selected group of Users Representatives)  The translation of these needs into technical requirements  the identification of high level architectural options  the identification of potential technological gaps A Users' representatives group continuously supports ESA in this initiative. The Group is composed by representatives of EU Military Staff, EDA, EC, Ministries of Defence of I, F, UK, E, D, B, N, by National Space Agencies of I, F, UK, E, D, B, N, CH, by the UN-WMO, by commercial operators (e.g. Inmarsat, Eutelsat) and insurance companies (e.g. MARSH). This User’s Group will continue its advisory role during the execution of the SSA Programme. Consultation of ESA Member States at Council level has taken place in December 2007. The SSA initiative has been very well received. As a result, an Enabling Resolution (March 2008) has mandated ESA to prepare a Programme Proposal for the next ESA Ministerial Council in November 2008.

4. Fifth European Space Weather Week 17 th - 21 st November 2008, Page 4 Objectives and general context  The general objective is the establishment of a reliable and coherent SSA Programme covering the time frame 2009 – 2019. The first phase will consist of a SSA preparatory Programme and will cover the period 2009 - 2011  2009 - 2011 : Governance, Data Policy Requirements, architecture of the future European SSA system, delivery of precursor services radar bread boarding, pilot Data Centres  Period 2 (2012 – 2019): Implementation of a fully operational European SSA system  The first part of this Programme, the SSA preparatory Programme, is being prepared for approval at the MC 2008.  The second part of this Programme, the SSA-Period 2, will be prepared taking into account the results of the SSA preparatory Programme, and is planned to be submitted to the approval of ESA Member States at the MC2011 (tbc). It will cover the timeframe 2012-2019.

5. Fifth European Space Weather Week 17 th - 21 st November 2008, Page 5 Services delivered by the European SSA System (1) Survey and Tracking  Detection and Tracking of objects in Earth-bound orbits (LEO, MEO, GEO, HEO)  Identification and correlation of tracked objects  Establishment of a catalogue  Tasking of radar and optical sensors for follow-up observations  During the development / prototyping phase, distribution of optical and radar tracking data, according to an agreed Data Policy  Identification of high-risk conjunctions between tracked objects, issue of alerts and recommendations for avoidance manoeuvres  Prediction of high-risk re-entry events and initiation of alert procedures  detection of on-orbit explosions or collisions and issue of alerts Imaging (not addressed during the Preparatory Programme)  Imaging of objects in Earth-bound orbits (LEO, MEO, GEO, HEO )  Provision of information about the state of man-made space objects  Provision of information about the state (deployment, pointing, …) of satellite appendices  Provision of information for the visualization and identification of space objects

6. Fifth European Space Weather Week 17 th - 21 st November 2008, Page 6 Space Weather  Spacecraft and payload operations’ radiation protection.  Thermosphere modelling for spacecraft drag calculation  Launcher radiation protection for operations  Space environment modelling for spacecraft design  Human space flight radiation protection  Ionospheric interference for navigation satellite signals  Space environment modelling for SSA survey and tracking Near Earth Objects (NEOs)  Detection and tracking of all NEOs above a given size or risk threshold  Determination of the orbit state  Identification and ranking of NEO collision risks with the Earth (e.g. Tunguska (Siberia), 1908)  Production of warnings about potential NEO impacts  Provision of liaison between observers, data analyzers and politicians  Study of possible mitigation measures Services delivered by the European SSA System (2)

7. Fifth European Space Weather Week 17 th - 21 st November 2008, Page 7 Security aspects affecting the SSA Programme  Some of the elements of the Programme will be subject to restrictions and security regulations due to their potential political sensitivity.  This concerns mainly the core element for the Space Surveillance activity, as well as the corresponding Data Centres entrusted with the tasks of collecting and distributing data and providing the related services.  The element related to Space Weather and NEOs activities is not so sensitive and no specific restrictions in the handling of the collected data is anticipated.  During the execution of the Programme, the security aspects of the Programme will be coordinated through a unit in charge of Governance and Data policy aspects, under guidance of an internal ESA Steering Board.

8. Fifth European Space Weather Week 17 th - 21 st November 2008, Page 8 European SSA – high level overview Ground-based Radar and Optical Sensors Ground-based Space Weather Sensors Space Sensors SSA Center(s) User 1User 2User 3User XUser 5User 4 Key for the success of SSA realisation is a concept based on agreed European needs/requirements and data sharing policy. SSA Data Policy

9. Fifth European Space Weather Week 17 th - 21 st November 2008, Page 9 European SSA System – Functional Diagram

10. Fifth European Space Weather Week 17 th - 21 st November 2008, Page 10 Breakdown of the SSA Preparatory Programme in independent elements  The Delegations requested the SSA preparatory Programme to cover 3 years (2009 – 2011), and be split in four elements: a)Core element (Governance, Data Policy, Data Security, SSA general architecture, Space Surveillance precursor services) b)Space Weather element (including some NEOs activities) c)Radar element (bread boarding of essential radar sub-systems), in close coordination with ESA’s technology Programmes such as the TRP and GSTP – Enabler of the core element d)Pilot Data Centres element (prototyping of the required Data Centres). This is an enabler of the core and Space Weather elements.

11. Fifth European Space Weather Week 17 th - 21 st November 2008, Page 11 Financial envelopes of the four SSA elements  All participating States will have to subscribe to the core element to a level of at least 0.25 GNP.  The participation to the other elements is optional  The core element has a fixed envelope of 20 MEUR  The other elements have their envelope tentatively fixed at the following levels: - Space Weather element:11 MEUR - Radar element:11 MEUR - Pilot Data Centres element:13 MEUR  This brings the value of the SSA preparatory Programme to an estimated amount of 55 MEUR

12. Fifth European Space Weather Week 17 th - 21 st November 2008, Page 12 The SSA-Period 2 Programme will continue activities related to the SSA domains, with the main focus on the consolidation of the ground-based infrastructure and deployment of a space-based infrastructure:  Finalisation of the development and further deployments of the ground- based Facilities deployed under SSA-Period I  Enhancement of precursor operational services to fully-fledged operational services  Development and Launch of an initial space-based infrastructure. This could include the deployment of satellites at various Earth-bound orbits with instruments dedicated to survey & tracking and space weather.  The definition and subsequent deployment of a satellite at Lagrange point L1 could as well be initiated during the period 2, for the fulfilment of services related to Space Weather applications currently provided by the SOHO mission. SSA-Period 2 activities