1. UQAM/EC Canadian Contribution to MAP D-PHASE R. McTaggart-Cowan, M. Desgagne, J. Cote, S. Gravel, C. Girard, A. Erfani, J. Milbrandt, C. Jones University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM) / Environment Canada, Quebec, Canada

2. UQAM/EC Outline ● Canadian motivation and support ● Description of the GEM modelling system ● Multiscale comparison of events in the MAP and Vancouver 2010 regions – Dynamical and physical representation of heavy precipitation episodes in the model ● Opportunity for “proof of concept” and verification

3. UQAM/EC Proposed Support Canadian operational / on-demand support for MAP D-PHASE

4. UQAM/EC Motivation for Involvement ● Regional experience from the original MAP project – Identified problems by “stressing” the system – Motivated improvements to model formulation ● Proof of concept for high resolution short- term forecasting in mountains – valuable for Vancouver Olympics 2010 project – Venues are particularly sensitive to precip amount and species

5. UQAM/EC Model Description ● Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model has been developed extensively since the MC2 was used in MAP ● GEM runs in global (uniform/variable reso) + LAM configuration – unified model structure ● Non-hydrostatic primitive equations solved using an Implicit SL scheme Operational GEM Regional stretched Configuration

6. UQAM/EC Model Description ● Self-nesting allows for a consistent use of physical parameterizations: – Kong and Yau microphysics (2 liq, 2 ice) – upgrade to Milbrandt and Yau is possible – TKE boundary layer closure – Kain-Fritsch convection (10 km MAP-Regional domain only) ● This allows nesting of hydrometeor species – important to reduce spin-up

7. UQAM/EC Predictability: Large Scale ● Synoptic scale patterns modulate the internal structure of the systems – they must be well-represented MAP IOP-2 Cyclone enhanced IR image 1200 UTC 20 September 1999 Vancouver snow (35cm Cyprus) enhanced IR image 0600 UTC 8 March 2006

8. UQAM/EC Predictability: Large Scale ● Despite satellite DA, useful predictability can be <6h on West Coast ● Ensemble techniques may be an approach Observation increment from AMSU-A brightness temperatures 14 Feb 2006 Observation increment of radiosonde temperatures for 16 June 2006 x

9. UQAM/EC Regional Modelling ● Use of an intermediate domain (10km) will promote development of mesoscale signal and permit hydrometeor nesting

10. UQAM/EC High Resolution Modelling ● During MAP, MC2 ran with smoothed (approximately x5) orography – GEM will run with full resolution field

11. UQAM/EC High Resolution Modelling ● MAP revealed problems with the MC2 – New vertical coordinate (Schar) developed – Numerical inconsistency eliminated ● Reduction of GEM waves is a priority GEM with standard backgroundGEM with modified background Vertical motion fields from the GEM for a cosine idealized mountain case (C~.5) Model Dynamics

12. UQAM/EC High Resolution Modelling ● Advanced microphysics scheme is being developed for GEM – 3 moment bulk with 2 liquid, 4 ice phases (Milbrandt and Yau) 100 20 40 60 80 0 10 1 10 0 10 -1 10 -2 Multimoment bulk estimate of DSD N(D) Diameter Observed 1 Moment Bulk 3 Moment Bulk ● Accurate DSD shape prediction important for fall speed estim- ates and conversion rate calculations Model Microphysics

13. UQAM/EC High Resolution Modelling Model Microphysics CLOUD (CLW) RAIN ICE / SNOW GRAUPEL / HAIL Kong and Yau 1 Moment Microphysics 1 Moment mass Unobserved heavy precip on the lee side Almost no graupel formed (low riming rates) Pockets of liquid water are known to form in persistent terrain-induced updrafts and provide ideal regions for rapid riming growth of snow

14. UQAM/EC RAIN ICE (pristine crystal) SNOW (large crystals / aggregates) GRAUPEL HAIL (ice pellets) CLOUD (CLW) High Resolution Modelling Model Microphysics Milbrandt and Yau 3 Moment Microphysics Windward and leeward precip in line with obs Large graupel growth rates by riming 3 Moment mass

15. UQAM/EC High Resolution Modelling ● Multimoment microphysics scheme reduces known accumulation and lee-side heavy precipitation problems with single moment schemes (e.g. IMPROVE case) ● High resolution in steep terrain will challenge the numerics of GEM ● High resolution verification data is hard to obtain but invaluable in scheme evaluation and further development

16. UQAM/EC Verification and Development ● MAP and MAP D-PHASE produce unique verification datasets ● D-PHASE will also be useful for model intercomparison at very high resolution – Quasi-operational status will yield statistically significant results on un-tuned cases – May be able to address the question of how much resolution is really needed? (> 3km)

17. UQAM/EC Conclusions ● Addition of development cycle helps us to realize the full potential of MAP D-PHASE Development Cycle added to Canadian Operational Support ● Coupled or offline hydrology model development will be integral for Vancouver 2010 forecasting