1. © 2006 Warren B. Powell Slide 1 From stochastic optimization to housing permits Navigating the pot-holes to implementation in the real-world Seventh New Jersey Universities Homeland Security Research Consortium Symposium November 20, 2006 Rutgers University Warren Powell Sophia Kim ‘06 CASTLE Laboratory Princeton University http://www.castlelab.princeton.edu © 2005 Warren B. Powell, Princeton University

2. © 2006 Warren B. Powell Slide 2 Hurricane Katrina – A Predicted Tragedy FEMA (2001): “A major hurricane hitting New Orleans is one of the three likeliest, most catastrophic disasters facing the country.”

3. © 2006 Warren B. Powell Slide 3 How can we help? Better infrastructure »Stronger bridges, dams and levees Better forecasting »Provide more advance warning Better evacuation procedures »Reverse flow lanes to increase network capacity »Buses and ambulances for those who need them Getting resources to those who need them: »Food and water »Medicine and medical personnel »Security (police, national guard) »Housing (“FEMA trailers”)

4. © 2006 Warren B. Powell Slide 4 Trailers vs. Mobile Homes Trailers Portable Less expensive than a mobile home. Can be placed in disaster zones Immediate set-up and operation

5. © 2006 Warren B. Powell Slide 5 FEMA trailers Pre-positioning FEMA trailers to respond to disasters »How much to buy? »When? »Where to place them? After the disaster: »Getting the trailers to those who need them as quickly as possible.

6. © 2006 Warren B. Powell Slide 6 Measuring the uncertainty

8. © 2006 Warren B. Powell Slide 8 Two-stage problems Two-stage resource allocation under uncertainty

9. © 2006 Warren B. Powell Slide 9

10. © 2006 Warren B. Powell Slide 10 Two-stage stochastic program Probability of a scenario Second stage costs and decisions First-stage acquisition and positioning costs.

12. © 2006 Warren B. Powell Slide 12 Computing probabilities

13. © 2006 Warren B. Powell Slide 13 Alternate trailer locations

14. © 2006 Warren B. Powell Slide 14 As storage locations are moved closer to the manufacturer, it is cheaper to order more trailers

15. © 2006 Warren B. Powell Slide 15 Implementing the second stage solution Step 1: Learn the actual demand »Forecast demand as hurricane approaches »Measure actuals as they are happening Step 2: Ship trailers to where they are needed Step 3: Incur costs

16. © 2006 Warren B. Powell Slide 16 Forecasting demand URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED... HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...ALL WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. THE VAST MAJORITY...OF TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS. Message received by Brian Williams on his Blackberry

17. © 2006 Warren B. Powell Slide 17 Forecasting demand URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED... HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...ALL WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. THE VAST MAJORITY...OF TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS. Message received by Brian Williams on his Blackberry

21. © 2006 Warren B. Powell Slide 21 Information The concept of an air drop of supplies was one we apparently introduced to the director of FEMA during a live interview on Nightly News on Thursday evening. He responded by saying that he'd been unaware of the thousands gathered at the Convention Center. Later that evening an incredulous Ted Koppel on ABC was left with no choice but to ask if the FEMA director was watching the same television coverage as the rest of the nation. Brian Williams, Sept 5 2005

22. © 2006 Warren B. Powell Slide 22 Implementing the second stage solution Step 1: Learn the actual demand Step 2: Ship trailers to where they are needed »Where to move them to? Need locations, housing permits »Logistics Need drivers, tractors and trailers »Decisions Need someone to actually make the decision Step 3: Incur costs

23. © 2006 Warren B. Powell Slide 23 Decisions From MSNBC: For nine days a mobile communications unit has been sitting in Germany with a chartered plane standing by, ready to provide desperately needed equipment for first responders. Company officials complain they’ve placed hundreds of calls and can still get no answer from FEMA. “This is the most frustrating exercise in futility I’ve had in my entire professional life,” says satellite services provider Uri Bar- Zemer. Last Friday, Mississippi asked FEMA for 20,000 trailers for temporary housing. On Monday, when nothing had happened, Sen. Trent Lott of Mississippi asked President Bush to intervene personally. The next day he was told that 400 trailers were on the way. “Just put it anywhere,” Lott said Tuesday, “Just get them there. We’ll put them in the right place!” Thursday, NBC News found hundreds of trailers still sitting in a facility in Georgia. “I believe that this response has been chaotic, indecisive and has caused the loss of lives that was unnecessary and unacceptable,” says Bullock.

24. © 2006 Warren B. Powell Slide 24 Decisions From MSNBC: For nine days a mobile communications unit has been sitting in Germany with a chartered plane standing by, ready to provide desperately needed equipment for first responders. Company officials complain they’ve placed hundreds of calls and can still get no answer from FEMA. “This is the most frustrating exercise in futility I’ve had in my entire professional life,” says satellite services provider Uri Bar- Zemer. Last Friday, Mississippi asked FEMA for 20,000 trailers for temporary housing. On Monday, when nothing had happened, Sen. Trent Lott of Mississippi asked President Bush to intervene personally. The next day he was told that 400 trailers were on the way. “Just put it anywhere,” Lott said Tuesday, “Just get them there. We’ll put them in the right place!” Thursday, NBC News found hundreds of trailers still sitting in a facility in Georgia. “I believe that this response has been chaotic, indecisive and has caused the loss of lives that was unnecessary and unacceptable,” says Bullock.

27. © 2006 Warren B. Powell Slide 27 Implementing the second stage solution Step 1: Learn the actual demand Step 2: Ship trailers to where they are needed Step 3: Incur costs »Real costs Transportation, fuel, housing »Human costs

30. How can we help?