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Aims Develop a methodology to study the impacts of low consequences/high probability events Apply this methodology to the implications of a 5-6 metre sea level rise on the Rhine delta, the Rhone delta, and the Thames estuary Assess the implications using risk assessment and optimal control theory
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Work Package 1 Project management (1.1) Estimating the impacts of a 5-6 metre sea level rise (1.2) Scenario development framework (1.3) Risk assessment (1.4) Social values and representations (1.5) Optimal control (1.6) Synthesis (1.7)
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Case Studies Development of draft scenario –What are the issues? 0 th draft –Who are the stakeholders and experts? Stakeholder selection & interviews –Interviews partly as preparation, partly as basis for 1 st draft; views expressed in private may differ from views expressed in public Workshop with stakeholders –Confront the various views with each other Scenario report (incl. Summary)
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Time line Start: November 2002 March 2003: 0 th draft June 2003: Impact estimates, guidelines for workshops; 2 nd project meeting October 2003: Workshops with stakeholders March 2004: Scenario reports; 3 rd meeting September 2004: Dissemination workshop October 2004: Final report
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Output We promised reports only, but perhaps we should strive for –A report for each case study, detailing impacts, methods and results –A paper for each case study –Perhaps a separate paper on impacts? –Perhaps a paper on stakeholder methodology? –Perhaps a paper on social representation? –A paper on risk assessment –A paper on optimal control –A summary paper as an introduction to either a special issue or an edited volume
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Agenda - Thursday 12:00-13:00 Lunch 13:00-14:15 Welcome & introduction 14:15-15:00 Rhine 15:00-15:30 Break 15:30-16:15 Thames 16:15-17:00 Rhone 17:00-17:30 Discussion on case studies 19:30- Dinner in La Siciliana
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Agenda - Friday 9:30-10:15 Impacts 10:15-11:00 Stakeholders 11:00-11:30 Break 11:30-12:00 Optimal control 12:00-13:00 Logistics etc –Consortium agreement –Toth & Nicholls and the case studies –Next meetings –Other issues 13:00- Lunch and adjourn
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