1. Why People vote Group factors and Issues

2. Clearly Stated Learning Objectives Examine the 2008 Election in the broader context of American electoral history Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2008 Election.

3. REGION It is not what it used to be

4. The Solid South A key component of the Roosevelt coalition – 11 states of the Confederacy Provided 52% of necessary votes for Wilson in 1916 47% of the necessary votes for victory in 1932 31% of Kennedy’s vote in 1960 43.7% for Jimmy Carter in 1976 – Crucial for Opportunity Costs for Democratic Candidates

5. Why the South Used to be more important Shared the characteristics of an important group – Large – Reliable The GOP Southern Strategy changes this

6. The Shift in the South 56.6% of Bush’s necessary votes in 2008 – The GOP needs it, the Dems can win without it Only 1 Non-southern Democratic Candidate from 1948-2008 won election Obama Mobilizes African American Voters in large states (FL, NC, VA)

7. Why Region is not as Important Mobility National exposure of the Media Region is an intervening variable, as primary factors really push vote

8. Region in 2008

9. Cities and Suburbs Urban areas and Rural Areas America is becoming less rural Obama dominates cities, and wins the burbs

10. Where We live

11. Gender and Marriage The Gender Gap Why?

13. Gender in 2008

14. Marriage Married People vote Republican Singles vote Democratic

15. Marital Status

16. Decline of Security Moms

17. Issue voting in 2008 Only 1 issue really mattered

18. Issue voting Can be very difficult Candidates try to avoid taking issue stands Economic issues are easy to vote upon

19. Most Important Issues

20. The Economy The events of 9/14

21. Economics Retrospective voting Prospective voting

22. Economics

25. Retrospective voting on Bush Bush is Unpopular

27. McCain Vs. Bush In the best position of any Republican to run against Bush In reality no way to distance himself from Bush

28. The Third Term

29. The War in Iraq No longer the salient Issue of the election Good news from Iraq did not change people’s minds Obama could claim opposition from day 1

30. Iraq

31. Health Care Not as important as you might think (9% most important problem) People are worried, but don’t specify policy

32. Energy Policy One of the reasons McCain goes with Palin Never panned out as an issue Cheap oil throughout the fall

33. Drilling

34. Terrorism The only Issue where McCain beats Obama The problem for McCain is that no one cared

35. Terrorism

36. Immigration No One cared Neither candidate had anything to gain by raising the issue