1. GOP Coalition 1968-2004 Key Groups –Sunbelt –Evangelicals –Affluent suburbanites –White working class Key Policies –Military spending –“Traditional family values” –Opposition to counter culture –End support for racial equality Silent Majority Speech I know it may not be fashionable to speak of patriotism or national destiny these days. But I feel it is appropriate to do so on this occasion …And so tonight -- to you, the great silent majority of my fellow Americans -- I ask for your support Nov. 3, 1969

2. 1948 Electoral College Map

3. 1988 Electoral College Map

4. Old vs. New Democrats 1984 Mondale-Hart 1992 Clinton v. Tsongas 2000 Gore v. Bradley 2008 Hilary v. Obama

5. New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Oregon. 5% or less margin 2004

6. 2008 Election The Declining White Working Class: Still Central Election Outcomes in Purple States White College Graduates: Growing and Trending Democratic, Especially in Purple States New Minority Voters: Particularly Important in Fast Growing Purple States It’s the Metros, Stupid Growing Areas are Mostly Trending Democratic –Source: Ruy Teixeira and William Frey, The Political Geography of America's Purple States: Five Trends That Will Decide the 2008 Election, Brookings Institution Oct 10.

13. “Real Plumbers of Ohio” Declining Income –average annual income of “plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters” $47,930. (BLS 2007) –Income increased 15.5% 2000-07, but consumer prices increased 17.7% Health Care –2000 57% of firms with less than 10 employees –2000 45% of firms (Kaiser Family Foundation ) Paul Krugman, Real Plumbers of Ohio, Oct 20, 2008

20. Matt Dowd on Hispanic Vote "We can't survive as a party without getting more of the Hispanic vote.” “Both political parties understand that it's a demographic that is probably one of the most important – you know, who's going to have majority status in this country." As a realistic goal, we have to get somewhere between 13 and 15 percent of the black vote and 38 to 40 percent of the Hispanic vote

22. GOP- anti immigrant rhetoric GOP Controlled House passes Sensenbrenner Bill- “felonization of all undocumented immigrants” NRSC Ad links illegal immigrants to terrorists - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjVdALIgfBI

23. Biggest Protests in a Generation

25. Bye-bye GOP % Hispanic Vote, exit polls

26. Oportunidad BO: I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message. Voiceover: The cost of a college education is a real worry for many families. But under the Obama Plan a student can earn the first $4,000 of tuition through community service. Putting a college education within everyone's reach. And the Obama Plan offers scholarships to recruit more teachers to make sure our children are ready (smart/prepared).

27. Ataques (Radio Version) ANNOUNCER 1: Wow, have you heard the terrible lies that John McCain and the Republicans are saying about Barack Obama? How horrible. [ANNOUNCER 2:] Well, it doesn't surprise me. The republicans will say anything to distract the public from the economy. [ANNOUNCER 1:] My neighbor - who has 2 kids - lost her job and her health insurance last week. And her husband, who works in construction, is about to lose his. I don't want to hear any more attacks. I want to know what the candidates will do for us. [ANNOUNCER 2:] Well, that's why Barack Obama is my candidate. Instead of continuing George Bush's same failed policies - like John McCain wants to do - Barack Obama understands what our community needs from a President. He has specific ideas to help us. [ANNOUNCER 1:] Under Obama, the middle class will receive three times more relief than with McCain. Obama will cut our taxes! [ANNOUNCER 2:] And what matters to me is that Obama has a plan to give health insurance to all. My neighbor will be saved! [ANNOUNCER 1:] Barack Obama and the democrats are the change we need.

35. Why Not an EDM? Swing Member of Coalition –College educated voters –White working class Very Safe –Latinos/African Americans –Women