1. 1 Roberto Pitea Regional Research Officer for Africa and the Middle East International Organization for Migration (IOM), Cairo Cairo, 20 – 21 September 2010 Demographic change and human mobility in the Arab region

2. 2 Overview 1) Introduction 2) Current human mobility trends 3) Future demographic trends 4) Future urbanization trends 5) Key challenges and opportunities

3. 3 Current mobility trends The Arab region is both origin, destination and transit region for different categories of migrants and mobile populations The UN estimates a total of 28.6 million migrants in the Arab region in 2010 (UNPD, 2009). Over half of them (15.1 million) are living in countries of the GCC. Forced migration contributes to human mobility in the Arab region, which hosts 4.7 million Palestinian refugees and an estimated 2 million Iraqi refugees (IOM, 2010). However, labour migration remains the major driver of mobility in the region.

4. 4 Current mobility trends Income and development differentials are the main drivers behind the mobility of workers in the region: –The average GDP per capita in Arab countries is 8,200 USD, ranging from almost 75,000 USD in Qatar to 2,090 USD in Yemen (UNDP, 2009). –The average GDP per capita in South Asia (major region of origin of migrants in the Arab region) is 2,905 USD –Average GDP per capita in Europe (major region of destination for Arab migrants) is 24,775 USD –The unemployment rate in the region has reached 14.2 per cent in 2009, among the highest in the world (global average is 6%).

5. 5 Current mobility trends Arab migrants according to regions of destination. Source: DRC (2007)

6. 6 Current mobility trends Remittance trends: outflows and inflows Source: World Bank in IOM (2010)

7. 7 Arab Population in 2050 : 556 million Youth (0 -24) in 2050 : 200 million (36%) Arab Population in 2010 : 336 million Demographic Scenario Youth (15-24) in 2050 : 80 million (14%) Youth (0 -24) in 2010 : 178 million (53%) Youth (15-24) in 2010 : 67 million (20%) Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (Population Division). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

8. 8 Dempographic scenario On average, an additional 325,000 people will enter the 15-24 age group every year between now and 2050; But, most Arab countries will see sharp drops in the growth rate of younger groups; Doubling young labour forces (Iraq, OPT and Yemen); Faster transition to an aging labour force (Algeria, Lebanon, and Tunisia); Destination countries will face labour force reductions (except Libya, Oman and Saudi Arabia).

9. 9 Demographic Scenario Demographic window of opportunity Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (Population Division). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

10. 10 Demographic scenario Total Dependency ratios* in 2010 Total Dependency ratios in 2050 56 Average * Number of children below 15 and people older than 65 for every 100 adults 27 UAE 90 West Bank and Gaza 48 OECD 71 OECD 60 Tunisia 52 Average 48 Qatar KSA Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (Population Division). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

11. 11 27 33 Tunisia Demographic scenario Dependency ratios* in 2010 Dependency ratios in 2050 Child DR:Number of children below 15 for every 100 adults Old Age DR: Number of people over 65 for every 100 adults 22 2 UAE 85 6 OPT 24 23 OECD 26 45 OECD 29 19 KSA

12. 12 Key implications High proportion of youth (youth bulge) : –Ensuring education for all means falling quality of education and/or higher government spending; –Labour markets cannot generate enough job opportunities to absorb unemployed workers and new entrants. Decline in (child) dependency ratios : –Demographic window of opportunity can accelerate development outcomes and processes

13. 13 Key challenges Source: IOM (2010) based on UNESCO (2006) Public expenditure on education in select Arab countries

14. 14 Key challenges Source: IOM (2010) based on ILO (2007) Youth unemployment by level of education and gender.

15. 15 Arab Population in 2050 : 556 million Urban population in 2050 : 413 million (74%) Arab Population in 2010 : 336 million Urbanization Scenario Urban population in 2010 : 191 million (57%) Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (Population Division). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, http://esa.un.org/

16. 16 Urbanization scenario In 1950, only 25 % of the total population in Arab countries lived in cities This percentage has increased to 57 % in 2010 and is estimated to reach 74% in 2050 The fastest increase in urban population between 2010 – 2050 will take place in less developed Arab countries

17. 17 Urbanization Scenario (urban population, in ml and as percentage of total population) Source: UN DESA –Population Division (2007) 2010 7.8 32 % 2050 34.9 60% Yemen Million % 2010 18.7 45 % 2050 32.0 74% Sudan 2010 34.0 43% 2050 75.6 62% Egypt 2010 18.4 57% 2050 32.0 75% Morocco 2010 11.7 55% 2050 25.8 74% Syria

18. 18 Key implications Demographic and environmental factors compound to create complex socio- economic vulnerabilities –Declining investment/Loss of productivity of agricultural sector Rapid increase in urban population: –Strain on resources and services –Rapid growth of informal urban settlements (slum areas) –Increase demand for natural resources (food, fuel, construction material…)

19. 19 Key challenges and opportunities Current push factors Unemployment and underemployment especially of youth Conflict and instability Future additional push factors Socio-economic Accelerating urbanization Demographic transition Environmental* Intensification of natural disasters Increased warming and drought affects agricultural production and access to water Rising sea levels makes coastal areas uninhabitable Competition over natural resources may lead to conflict and in turn displacement Current pull factors Income and development differentials Education and employment opportunities Security Future additional pull factors Socio-economic Demographic transition (ageing) in countries of destination Environmental Access to sustainable forms of livelihoods *Adapted from IOM (2009) Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence

20. 20 Key challenges and opportunities The Arab region will undergo significant demographic changes in the next decades These changes will have an impact on socio- economic development and, in turn, human mobility. Environmental factors will compound to these changes, resulting in more complex mobility dynamics.

21. 21 Thank you