1. A Dynamic Delphi System Connie White, Murray Turoff New Jersey Institute of Technology

2. A Dynamic Delphi System, RIP Delphi – A Brief Introduction Decision Driven Rounds Methodology Pilot Study

3. Traditional Delphi Defined “ Delphi may be characterized as a method for structuring a group communication process, so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with complex problems.” (Linstone and Turoff)

4. Traditional Delphi Defined Uses rounds Feedback is selective Group Consensus is desired Deviates merge towards the median All the time in the world

5. Dynamic Delphi Asynchronous interaction  Participate anytime  Participate in any part  All information is presented by all participants Rounds are determined by changes in decisions

6. Dynamic Delphi Fast Decision Making Experts can have a ‘no vote’ or ‘delay voting until further information comes forth’ Visual Feedback  Aids for non-technical experts for large heterogeneous group

7. Thurstone’s Law of Comparative Judgment Set of unidimensional items Calculates one group opinion from many No predetermined scale length - relative Scale is visual feedback  Semantic differentials (ranking)  Identify equivalence perceptions (clusters)  Indicate extreme differences of group selection (democrat/republican)

8. Ordinal Interval Scale 1 2 3 4 5 6 |----------------|----------------|-----------------|-----------------|----------------| Hospital Ambulance Police Superdome From low to high of importance during Katrina – where resources go after the levees break

9. Thurstone’s Interval Scale.24.29 4.5 7.5 ---|------|------------------------------------|----------------|---- Hospital Ambulance Police Superdome From low to high of importance during Katrina – where resources go after the levees break

10. Atomic Decision Making example Hurricane Katrina

11. Set of Unidimensional Data {command and control, hospital, nursing home, super dome, police station headquarters, ambulance}

12. Paired Comparisons (nursing home, hospital), (ambulance, police headquarters) (super dome, hospital) (ambulance, super dome) Best reflects expert’s judgment breaking down complex problems into their atomic units

13. Changes of Decisions X1X1 X2X2 X3X3 X4X4 X1X1 _______ 60%80%90% X2X2 40% _______ 55%100% X3X3 20%45% _______ 85% X4X4 10%0%15% _______

14. Changes of Decisions X1X1 X2X2 X3X3 X4X4 X1X1 _______ 111 X2X2 0 11 X3X3 00 1 X4X4 000

15. Changes of Decisions X1X1 X2X2 X3X3 X4X4 X1X1 _______ 40%20%10% X2X2 60% _______ 45%0% X3X3 80%55% _______ 15% X4X4 90%100%85% _______

16. Changes of Decisions X1X1 X2X2 X3X3 X4X4 X1X1 _______ 000 X2X2 1 00 X3X3 11 0 X4X4 111

17. Thurstone (clustering)

18. Thurstone (ranking) D>A>F>G>C>E>B.

19. Future Pilot Study Pair-wise Comparison vs Ranking  Better reflects expert’s view?  Faster?  When n = 5? n = 20?