1. CHAPIN HALL Permanency, Disparity and Social Context Fred Wulczyn Chapin Hall, University of Chicago

2. CHAPIN HALL Main themes Substantive/theoretical interest Further exploration of the ecological similarity hypothesis with respect to exit rate disparities. The role of social context vis-à-vis child welfare outcomes. Methodological focus Discrete Time models as an extension of general event history models (e.g., Cox models). Multi-level models.

3. CHAPIN HALL Disparity, Permanency, and Social Context The Black/White violence gap When the context in which children are raised is accounted for, the Black/White violence gap is diminished (Wilson and Sampson). Differences are a function of the fact the Blacks are much more likely to live in communities where the mechanisms of social organization differ significantly. Raises the question - to what extent have we accounted for context in our models of outcome disparities in the child welfare system ? What can we say about the places where disparity is greatest?

4. CHAPIN HALL The Questions Reunification Black children are reunified more slowly. Is this true across a range of contexts? Adoption Black children are adopted more slowly. Is this true across a range of contexts? Guardianship Black children are placed in guardianship arrangements more quickly. Is this true across a range of contexts?

5. CHAPIN HALL Basic Findings REUNIFICATION Compared to White children, Black children exit to reunification more slowly (.68 to 1). ADOPTION Compared to White children, Black children exit to adoption more slowly (.71 to 1). RELATIVES (e.g., guardianship) Little difference when children are discharged to relatives.

6. CHAPIN HALL Interpretation These results show the effect of race on each of three exit types. These are, however, average effects. The findings say nothing about the extent to which the race effect varies. Leads to a simple question - is the race effect the same everywhere?

7. CHAPIN HALL Relative rates of exit do vary Across 400 counties, Black children are reunified as fast or faster in nearly 50% of the counties. Across 400 counties, Black children are adopted as fast or faster in nearly 50% of the counties. Rate of Reunification: Black Children Relative to Other Children Rate of Adoption: Black Children Relative to Other Children

8. CHAPIN HALL Interpretation These results suggest that the magnitude of the so-called race effect differs: Where Black children move more slowly than other children, the range is considerable. In many counties, Black children actually achieve permanency as fast or faster than other children. Leads to a second question What else can we say about the counties, where Black children leave placement at rates above those observed for other children?

9. CHAPIN HALL What attributes of place matter? County poverty rate? Proportion of families headed by females? Placement rate per 1,000? Proportion of county residents that are Black?

10. CHAPIN HALL Poverty Rate of Exit: Black Children Relative to White Children Accounting for county poverty rates: Adjusts the race effect slightly which means that once we adjust for the county poverty rate, rates of exit are not as different. Impact on reunification is more substantial. Children in poor counties go home more slowly and more Black children live in poor counties.

11. CHAPIN HALL Family Structure Rate of Exit: Black Children Relative to White Children Accounting for family structure: Adjusts the race effect slightly which means that once we adjust for how many female headed families live in the county, rates of exit are not as different. Impact on all types of permanency is substantial. Children in counties with more female headed families go home more slowly and more Black children live in counties with more female-headed households.

12. CHAPIN HALL Racial Composition (Percent Black) Rate of Exit: Black Children Relative to White Children Accounting for racial composition: Adjusts the race effect significantly: Once we adjust for how many Blacks live in the county, rates of exit are not different. At the child level, no impact of race on reunification rates. Black children are adopted more quickly.

13. CHAPIN HALL Placement Rate Rate of Exit: Black Children Relative to White Children Accounting for placement rate: Adjusts the race effect slightly: Black/White reunification gap is not significant; Adoption and relative gaps are significantly different

14. CHAPIN HALL Full Model Rate of Exit: Black Children Relative to White Children Child level characteristics: Babies are slower to be reunified; are adopted and discharged to relatives more quickly Children in foster homes reunify more slowly; are adopted more quickly; are discharged to guardianships more slowly In the first 6 months, likelihood of reunification and guardianship is high, adoption is low Race effect on reunification and adoption is diminished County level characteristics: Percent Black slows the average rate of reunification; no level one effect Higher placement rates tend to push exit rates up

15. CHAPIN HALL Summary and Implications Place matters: 42 percent of Black children are admitted to placement in counties where their rate of adoption is as fast or faster than other children. 36 percent of Black children are admitted to placement in counties where their rate of reunification is greater. There are two important questions: Is there disparity? To what extent does disparity vary and why are more important questions. Faster and slower are crude indicators of quality, at best.

16. CHAPIN HALL Summary and Implications (con’t.) Limitations Too few child, family, and county characteristics Research and methods Researchers have yet to exploit fully advances in multi-level analysis. Until we do... Theory How best to address the issue of residential segregation and its impact on the child welfare system Policy and practice Disparity is not a one dimensional issue. It is problematic to treat it as such. Research is action.