1. DES Chapter 2 1 A Complete Corporate Valuation for a Simple Company

2. DES Chapter 2 2 Three types of value Book value: the company’s historical value as shown on its financial statements. Market value: the current price at which an asset can be bought or sold. Intrinsic value: estimate of the value an individual buyer places on an asset.

3. DES Chapter 2 3 Objective: Objective is to provide a sound basis for estimating the intrinsic value of a stock. This intrinsic value is also called its fundamental value. The process is known as fundamental valuation—Warren Buffet is very successful at identifying a company’s fundamental value!

4. DES Chapter 2 4 The three basic concepts of valuation Investors can only spend cash so "Cash is good and more cash is better." Cash today is worth more than cash tomorrow. Risky cash flows are worth less than safe cash flows. These three imply the value of a company depends on the size, timing, and riskiness of its cash flows.

5. DES Chapter 2 5 Steps in the corporate valuation Determine weighted average cost of capital Estimate expected future free cash flows--- cash flows available to all investors—called free cash flows (FCFs). Discount free cash flows at the average rate of return required by all investors Find value of company

6. DES Chapter 2 6 Estimating the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Company has two types of investors Debtholders Stockholders Each type of investor expects to receive a return for their investment The return an investor receives is a “cost of capital” from company’s viewpoint.

7. DES Chapter 2 7 Cost of Debt MPR’s cost of debt: r D = 9%. But MPR can deduct interest, so cost to MPR is after-tax rate on debt. If tax rate is 40%, then after-tax cost of debt is: After-tax r D = 9%(1-0.4) = 5.4%.

8. DES Chapter 2 8 Cost of Equity Cost of equity, r s, is higher than cost of debt because stock is riskier. MPR: r s = 12%

9. DES Chapter 2 9 Weighted Average Cost of Capital WACC is average of costs to all investors, weighted by the target percent of firm that is financed by each type. For MPR, target percent financed by equity: w S = 70% For MPR, target percent financed by debt: w D = 30% (More….)

10. DES Chapter 2 10 WACC (Continued) WACC= w D r D (1-T) + w S r S = 0.3(9%)(1 - 0.4) + 0.7(12%) = 10.02%

11. DES Chapter 2 11 Free Cash Flow (FCF) FCF is the amount of cash available from operations for distribution to all investors (including stockholders and debtholders) after making the necessary investments to support operations. A company’s value depends upon the amount of FCF it can generate.

12. DES Chapter 2 12 Calculating FCF FCF = net operating profit after taxes minus investment in operating capital

13. DES Chapter 2 13 Financial Statements Balance sheet Assets (all of MPR’s assets are used in operations) Operating assets Operating current assets Property, plant, and equipment (PPE)

14. DES Chapter 2 14 Operating Current Assets Operating current assets are the CA needed to support operations. Op CA include: cash, inventory, receivables. Op CA exclude: short-term investments, because these are not a part of operations.

15. DES Chapter 2 15 Operating Current Liabilities Operating current liabilities are the CL resulting as a normal part of operations. Op CL include: accounts payable and accruals. Op CA exclude: notes payable, because this is a source of financing, not a part of operations.

16. DES Chapter 2 16 Balance Sheet: Assets 200720082009 Op. CA162,000.0168,000.0176,400.0 Total CA162,000.0168,000.0176,400.0 Net PPE199,000.0210,042.0220,500.0 Tot. Assets361,000.0378,042.0396,900.0

17. DES Chapter 2 17 Balance Sheet: Claims 200720082009 Op. CL57,911.562,999.766,150.0 Total CL 57,911.5 62,999.7 66,150.0 L-T Debt136,253.0143,061.0150,223.0 Total Liab.194,164.5206,060.7216,373.0 Equity166,835.5171,981.3180,527.0 TL & Eq.361,000.0378,042.0396,900.0

18. DES Chapter 2 18 Income Statement 200720082009 Sales400,000.0420,000.0441,000.0 Costs344,000.0361,994.2374,881.6 Op. prof.56,000.058,005.866,118.4 Interest11,678.712,262.812,875.5 EBT44,321.345,743.053,242.9 Taxes (40%)17,728.418,297.221,297.2 NI26,592.727,445.831,945.7 Dividends21,200.022,300.023,400.0 Add. RE5,392.75,145.88,545.7

19. DES Chapter 2 19 NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Taxes) NOPAT is the amount of after-tax profit generated by operations. NOPAT is the amount of net income, or earnings, that a company with no debt or interest-income would have. NOPAT= (Operating profit) (1-T) = EBIT (1-T)

20. DES Chapter 2 20 Calculating NOPAT NOPAT= (Operating profit) (1-T) = EBIT (1-T) NOPAT 09 = 66.1184 (1-0.4) = 39.67104 million.

21. DES Chapter 2 21 Calculating Operating Capital Operating capital (also called total operating capital, or just capital) is the amount of assets required to support the company’s operations, less the liabilities that arise from those operations. The short-term component is net operating working capital (NOWC). The long-term component is factories, land, equipment.

22. DES Chapter 2 22 Net Operating Working Capital NOWC =Operating current assets – Operating current liabilities This is the net amount tied up in the “things” needed to run the company on a day-to-day basis.

23. DES Chapter 2 23 Net Operating Working Capital NOWC = Operating CA – Operating CL NOWC 09 = $176.4 – $66.15 = $110.25 million

24. DES Chapter 2 24 Operating Capital Operating capital = Net operating working capital (NOWC) plus Long-term capital, such as factories, land, equipment.

25. DES Chapter 2 25 Operating Capital = NOWC + LT Op. Capital Capital 09 = $110.25 + $220.50 = $330.75 million This means in 2009 MPR had $330.75 million tied up in capital needed to support its operations. Investors supplied this money. It isn’t available for distribution.

26. DES Chapter 2 26 Investment in operating capital Operating capital in 2008 was $315.0423 million Operating capital in 2009 was $330.75 million MPR had to make a net investment of $330.75 – $315.0423 = $15.7077 million in operating capital in 2009.

27. DES Chapter 2 27 Calculating FCF FCF = NOPAT – Investment in operating capital FCF 09 = $39.67104 – (330.75 – 315.0423) = $39.67104 – $15.7077 = $23.96334 million

28. DES Chapter 2 28 There are five ways for a company to use FCF 1. Pay interest on debt. 2. Pay back principal on debt. 3. Pay dividends. 4. Buy back stock. 5. Buy nonoperating assets (e.g., marketable securities, investments in other companies, etc.)

29. DES Chapter 2 29 Reinvestment Bucket Free Cash Flow Bucket

30. DES Chapter 2 30 How Did MPR use its FCF? Paid dividends: $23.4 million Paid after-tax interest of: $12,875.5 (1-0.4) = $7.7253 million For a total of $31.1253 million! This is $7.162 million more than the $23.9 million FCF available! Where did it come from? MPR increased its borrowing by $150.223 – $143.061) = $7.162 million to make up the difference.

31. DES Chapter 2 31 Corporate Valuation Forecast financial statements and use them to project FCF. Discount the FCFs at the WACC This gives the value of operations

32. DES Chapter 2 32 Value of Operations: Of course, this requires projecting free cash flows out forever.

33. DES Chapter 2 33 Constant growth If free cash flows are expected to grow at a constant rate of 5%, then this is easy: 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 FCF 23.96325.16126.41927.74029.12730.584 There is an easy formula for the present value of free cash flows that grow forever at a constant rate…

34. DES Chapter 2 34 Constant Growth Formula The summation can be replaced by a single formula:

35. DES Chapter 2 35 The value of operations

36. DES Chapter 2 36 Value of Equity Sources of Corporate Value Value of operations = $501.225 million Value of non-operating assets = $0 (in this case) Claims on Corporate Value Value of Debt = $150.223 million Value of Equity = ? Value of Equity = $501.225 - $150.223 = $351.002 million, or just $351 million.

37. DES Chapter 2 37 Value of Equity Price per share = Equity / # of shares = $351 million / 10 million shares = $35.10 per share

38. DES Chapter 2 38 A picture of the breakdown of MPR’s value

39. DES Chapter 2 39 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) ROIC can be used to evaluate MPR’s performance: ROIC = NOPAT / Total operating capital in place at the beginning of the year

40. DES Chapter 2 40 ROIC calculation ROIC 09 = NOPAT 09 / Capital 08 ROIC 09 = 39.67104 / 315.0423 = 12.6%. This is a good ROIC because it is greater than the return that investors require, the WACC, which is 10.02%. So MPR added value during 2009.

41. DES Chapter 2 41 Economic Value Added (EVA TM ) (also called Economic Profit) EVA is another key measure of operating performance. EVA is trademarked by Stern Stewart, Inc. It measures the amount of profit the company earned, over and above the amount of profit that investors required. EP = NOPAT t – WACC(Capital t-1 )

42. DES Chapter 2 42 Calculating EVA EVA = NOPAT- (WACC)(Begng. Capital) EVA 09 = NOPAT 09 – (0.1002)(Capital 08 ) EVA 09 = $39.67104 – (0.1002)(315.0423) = $39.67104 – $31.56742 = $8.1038 million (More…)

43. DES Chapter 2 43 Economic profit… This shows that in 2009 MPR earned about $8 million more than its investors required. Another way to calculate EP is EP t = (ROIC – WACC)Capital t-1 = (0.125923 – 0.1002)$315.0423 = $8.1038 million

44. DES Chapter 2 44 Intuition behind EP If the ROIC – WACC spread is positive, then the firm is generating more than enough “profit,” and is increasing value. But, if the ROIC – WACC spread is negative, then the firm is destroying value, in the sense that investors would be better off taking their money and investing it elsewhere.

45. DES Chapter 2 45 Applications of the corporate valuation model Mergers and acquisitions Evaluate how much a target is worth under various operating scenarios Value-based management Make decisions with the goal of increasing the company’s value Fundamental investing Identify firms that are worth more than the current stock price