1. The Two Parties Today Third parties tomorrow?

2. Parties as organizations
PAO PIE PIG
Parties as organizations

3. Number of civil servants and federal civilian employees

4. PAO PIE PIG
Parties as organizations
Parties in the electorate

5. Increasing number of “Independents”?

6. Stable number of partisans

7. PAO PIE PIG Parties as organizations Parties in the electorate
Parties in government

8. President’s Average Legislative Success

9. Can an “outsider” to the political system become President of the United States?

10. 3rd Party Candidates with 5% of PV
Year
Name
Party
Percent
1848
Van Buren
Free Soil
10%
1856
Fillmore
Whig-American
21%
1860
Breckinridge
Southern Democrat
18%
Bell
Constitutional Union
12%
1892
Weaver
Populist 8%
1912 TR
Progressive
27%
1924
LaFollette
16%
1968
Wallace
Amer. Independent
13%
1980
Anderson
Independent 6%
1992
Perot
Reform
19%
1996

11. 19th vs. 20th Century 3rd Party Candidates
Issue-based parties/
Grass roots parties
Candidates join existing movement
20th Century
Personality-based campaigns
Parties built around personalities and personal crusades

12. Barriers to Third Party Success
Single member district, plurality system
Electoral College

13. 8 minor party candidates have won Electoral Votes…
1832: Anti Masonic party, 7EV
1856: Know-Nothing Party, 8 EV
1860: Constitutional Union Party, 39 EV
1892: Populist Party, 22 EV
1912: Progressive Party, 88 EV
1924: Progressive Party, 13 EV
1948: Dixiecrat Party, 39 EV (2% of PV!)
1968: American Independent Party, 46 EV

14. Barriers to Third Party Success
Single member district, plurality system
Electoral College
Ballot Access Restrictions
Campaign Finance Laws
Hard to raise money
Hard to get media attention
Hard to recruit strong candidates
Most voters are loyal to a party

15. Significant Nader votes, 2000
State (ev)
Nader % of vote
% of votes separating Bush and Gore
FL (25)
1.63%
.01%
NM (5)
3.55%
.06%
IA (7)
2.23%
.32%
OR (7)
5.04%
.44%
WI (11)
3.62%
.22%