1. PSCN 110: Introduction to American Government Public Opinion: Sources, Shapes, Variation, and Measurement Dr. Bradley Best Asst. Professor Buena Vista University

2. Public Opinion: Initial Thoughts > Public Opinion (definitions): “Those opinions held by private persons which governments find it prudent to heed.” ~ V.O. Key “Opinions are the result of complex value and belief calculations that establish a sensible fit between the outer world and life experiences.” ~ W. Lance Bennett “The aggregation of people’s views about issues, situations, and public figures.” ~ FPJV

3. Initial observations: – Although often expressed and actively related, in one form or another, public opinion can remain silent (known as latent opinion) Decisions and actions of public officials are often shaped by what they suspect will be the public’s response (known as the law of anticipated reactions) – Each issue is more or less salient in the minds of individuals and Americans collectively Salience = importance or relevance

4. A closer look at Bennett’s definition: Values “…things people find most important in life.” “…necessary conditions for the good life.” examples: justice, individual liberty, responsibility to one’s community Beliefs “…the facts people take for granted about the world.” example: marriage is the foundation of American life

5. Sources of public opinion Socialization Personal experience Self interest Education Reference groups The media

6. Public opinion is “situational” – Bennett (1980) - refers to the expression of opinion about a specific issue, at a specific time, in the context of a specific set of social and political conditions [moral: opinion is not fixed. It is dynamic, ever- changing.] [see Figure 5.1] If we examine opinion data, we are likely to see variation: ~ across space (IA vs. FL vs. NY) - intersubjectively (me vs. you) ~ across time (temporal variation) http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm ~ across issues / questions

7. Public opinion varies (continued): – Three terms used to describe this variation: Direction - (“I do not support the war in Iraq.”) Intensity – (“45% of Americans strongly prefer a reduction in federal income tax rates.”) Stability (or volatility) – (“Since August, the percentage of Americans saying that they approve of the job G.W. Bush is doing as President has never been lower than 48% and never higher than 51%.”)

8. Public Opinion: Explaining Variation National opinion (perhaps regional variants, as well) anchored in political culture – Yet, Americans demonstrate relatively low levels of awareness, interest, and constraint Being aware entails significant information costs Awareness and strength of opinion spikes within issue publics Individual opinion rooted in political socialization, individual psychology – Agents of socialization – family, schools, peers (and others) – Personal experiences, self-interest, education, reference groups, media – individual’s cognitions – how he/she processes new information in view of values and beliefs (key point: party ID is a powerful filter in processing information and forming opinions about new issues.)

9. Variation in Public Opinion – A closer look at two explanations – Education [Figure 5.2] More education  more tolerant More education  higher political efficacy (“I can make a difference”) – Group membership [Figure 5.3] Difference rooted in experiences, interests, levels of ed. Reference group influence – look to the opinions of persons in your group – Example: women/men, union membership, racial identity, rural / urban

10. Public Opinion and the Individual – Key concept: constraint (presence of an underlying structure and, therefore, consistency, in person’s attitudes, opinions, issue positions) Mass public vs. political and party elites: ~ opinion constraint ~ issue constraint ~ ideological constraint (moral: for mass public, opinion is more social than logical in construction; mass public is pragmatic)

11. Public Opinion: Measurement Our concerns: (1) Methodology (just a “whiff” of it here) ~ 20 th century (1930s) – dawn of modern survey research (Gallup) ~ How do social scientists get the numbers? surveys, interviews - key terminology (populations, samples, randomness, representativeness) ~ Surveys (asking good questions and asking them intelligently) - key concerns: validity and reliability - mistakes/errors in question wording (see F, P, V, pp. 128-34) ~ other mistakes social scientists make that undermines confidence in data - selection effects (selection bias) – never let the sample determine itself (TV call-in polls) - sampling error and measurement error

12. (2) Interpreting the numbers (margin of error) Example: 52% of respondents say “war in Iraq was mistake” (95% confidence level, +/- 3 percentage pts.) ~ Key pt: If we were to conduct 100 samples from the population, 95 would produce a result within this range (49%- 55%) ~ margin of error issue arises only when we use a sample Want to know more? Take a course in descriptive stats.

13. Characteristics of Public Opinion Americans know less than you might think. – Figure 5.6 – what does this say about information costs? Are information costs are not equal for all persons. – Issue publics – people with particular interests and knowledge that make gathering information less costly (example: Doctors might pay more attention to government decisions regarding health care)

14. Figure 5.8 – inconsistency in American public opinion – What does this data suggest about the sophistication of Americans’ attitudes and opinions?

15. Public Opinion – By the Numbers http://www.umich.edu/~nes/nesguide/gd- index.htm#9 http://www.umich.edu/~nes/nesguide/gd- index.htm#9

16. Opinion Polling Basics http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/ (Roper Center for Public Opinion Research)