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Fin 4201/8001 1 Lklklk Behavioral Finance
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Fin 4201/8001 2 Lklklk Overconfidence
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Fin 4201/8001 3 Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick Disposition effect - Reference points Pride & Regret = Pain & Pleasure
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Fin 4201/8001 4 House Money Cognitive dissonance Consider the past
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Fin 4201/8001 5 Lklklk Mental Accounting
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Fin 4201/8001 6 Lklklk Forming Portfolios
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Fin 4201/8001 7 Representativeness and Familiarity
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Fin 4201/8001 8 Lklklk Social Interaction
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Fin 4201/8001 9 Lklklk Emotion and Decision
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Fin 4201/8001 10 Lklklk Self Control and Decisions
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Fin 4201/8001 11 Prospect Theory Value Function
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Normal Distribution A large enough sample drawn from a normal distribution looks like a bell-shaped curve. Probability Return on large company common stocks 99.74% – 3 – 49.3% – 2 – 28.8% – 1 – 8.3% Mean 12.2% + 1 32.7% + 2 53.2% + 3 73.7% The probability that a yearly return will fall within ± 1 standard deviation (± 20.5%) of the mean is approximately 68%. 68.26% 95.44%
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