1. 1 Roland NUSSBAUM Managing Director of Mission Risques Naturels (FR) Chairman of Natural Hazards Working Group Comité Européen des Assurances (CEA) “The International Catastrophic Risks Forum" Bucharest, October 1st 2007 Risk mapping and zoning approaches in European insurance markets

2. 2 Risk mapping and zoning approaches in Europe OUTLINE Typology of CAT extended coverages in European insurance markets Introducing CEA relevant activities User needs, data and scope of developments Flood and seismic hazard zoning tools Conclusions Annexes

3. 3 Typology of NATCAT extended coverages in European insurance markets Compulsory Optionnal Insurers are not risk carryer * * * New / modified extended coverages: Recently put in place In project……… + + + Color intensity according to market penetration of extended cover: FLOODS and/or SEISMIC RISK * * * + * * * * *

4. 4 COMITE EUROPEEN DES ASSURANCES oFederation of European insurance associations www.cea.assur.org www.cea.assur.org oProperty Committee oNatural Hazards Working Group (NH WG)

5. 5 Cooperations & experience sharing between CEA markets Mutual information on market situation and developments Hazard mapping and zoning Insurers and flood risk prevention Catastrophic claims management Climate change : report July 2007 * Downloadable on CEA’s website: www.cea.assur.orgwww.cea.assur.org

6. 6 1.Users’ needs, data, services and scope of developments French experience Conducted by MRN

7. 7 7 Categories of needs within insurance Evolution in France Solvency II CATNAT Regime Safety managmeent plan Susbtainablity reportng duties for companies Régime CATNAT Offre outils modélisation Solvency II CATNAT Evolution of ins. regime Trends Accumulation modelling Site by site scoring Site by site scoring modelling Type of service Portfolio exposure eval° and monitoring Asset allocation Prevention incentive Risk exposure eval° Prevention and crisis preparedness within insurance company Risk accumulations Reinsurance underwrinting Rapid evaluation of total claim Crisis management Claims consistency control Purpose Statistics Acturarial sc. Risk management Real estate assets porforlio managment Reinsurance cessions Claims management Underwriting risk survey Job

8. 8 Data, services and scope of use Prevention policy categories of data Scoring Site by site Exposure Assessment Modelling Service / General interest Public policy Competition Private market players Vulnerability Loss records Territories Insurance portfolios Private assets Referentials Underwriting ? Hazards scope

9. 9 2. Flood and seismic hazard zoning tools General comments

10. 10 Flood and seismic hazard exposure

11. 11 Floods, storms and earthquakes Annual probability of exceedance = f(losses) Sources: DFNK, GFZ

12. 12 2.1. Flood zoning tools used by european insurance markets A CEA Contribution to EXCIMAP Atlas and guide of good practices to be published by EU Commission DG ENV See Annex to CEA report “Reducing the Social and Economic Impact of Climate Change and Natural Catastrophes Insurance Solutions and Public-Private Partnerships” July 2007

13. 13 Typology & evolution of flood hazard zoning tools on European insurance markets (USA) UK FR : MRN 2004-7 Service Intranet Market players with data modeling tools from agencies market / project Proprietary developments at market initiative PPPs Hazard data UK : Informal agreement ABI(+CML) - EA AU : PPP VVO – LM Public site NFIP / FIRM ? ? ? BE 2006 DE : ZURS 1 & 2 CZ : FRAT AU : HORA 2007 IT : SIGRA T ? 2004-6 Directives : FLOODS INSPIRE PL : project

14. 14 2.2. Seismic risk in European insurance markets First results of enquiries and best practices exchanges between CEA Member Associations

15. 15 Seismic risk Availability of hazard maps ?

16. 16 seismic hazard information availability Source : B. Ranguelov, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, at SENS’2006, June 2006

17. 17 SEISMIC ZONES FROM 2004 (3 ZONES) G R E E C E II Exposed properties per seismic zone

18. 18 Seismic risk Availability of PML scenarios

19. 19 3. Conclusions Huge technical developments by insurance markets, based on GIS technologies and modelling, to improve cat insurability Positive effect of best practices exchange between insurance markets: role of CEA – invitation to join CEA Natural Hazard Working Group activities EU policies: INFSO / INSPIRE, R&D / FP7, REGIO, ENV / Climate change adaptation strategy, flood action programme / Flood directive…) favour the trends towards PPPs for: odata production, sharing and dissemination, ojoining efforts in exposure assessments  Deterministic  Probabilistic opromoting insurance services as economic incentives for risk prevention

20. 20 www.cea.assur.org www.mrn-gpsa.org roland.nussbaum@mrn.gpsa.fr Thank you for your attention

21. 21 Annexes to the presentation Additionnal maps and illustrative examples Risk mapping and zoning approaches in Europe

22. 22 Plans de prévention des risques (PPR) Developing a professional tool for scoring indicators about their adequacy and efficiency Sources : DDE 65 et 94 Situation / (hazard, municipality) Test on Absence ofPPRassets PPR approved assets + adequacy PPR mature assets + adequacy + efficiency

23. 23 Intranet geoservices infrastructure offered by MRN to French insurance companies Through a unique access point, insurance companies have two categories of services : - online consultation of a site exposure and report edition - downloading of numeric data sets on natural hazard zonations

24. 24 This example shows a consultation of the information available for flood and subsidence hazards at the following adress: 1 rue Bannier 45 000 Orléans The MRN geoservices intranet platform

25. 25 Multi-sites « scoring » for an insurance portfolio the various addresses have been geocoded, these insured sites are then « qualified » with respect to hazard, according to i available data and considering their credibility

26. 26 Modelling of an EQ on the French Riviera synthetic event synthetic event Magnitude 6.1 Magnitude 6.1 Epicenter: in the sea, near Menton city Epicenter: in the sea, near Menton city

27. 27 Modelling of an EQ on the French Riviera VULNERABILITY CLASSES OF EXPOSED MUNICIPALITIES IN PACA REGION Asset Module

28. 28 Damage estimate Module Modelling of an EQ on the French Riviera Economic loss estimate = % damage X nb dwellings X surfaces X replacing cost/ m 2 Estimate of the amount of damage to dwellings par municipality About 47 000 dwellings 9 G€ of insured dammage

29. 29 Best practice exchange on flood zoning data by insurance markets AU http://geoinfo.lfrz.at/website/egisroot/services/ehora2/viewer.htm FR Public zoning tools used by insurance markets GK1 GK4 GK3 GK2 B DE Insurance market proprietary zoning tools CZ

30. 30 UK situation: EA agreement with ABI

31. 31 ITALY : SIGRA project integrating site by site and portfolio tools

32. 32 High Low Qualitative assessment of risk awareness level

33. 33 EQ extended coverage: compulsory or not?

34. 34 Market penetration of EQ coverage

35. 35 Form of EQ insurance market organisation

36. 36 EQ prevention requirements