2. Military technology comes from club to attack/defense robots by Research and Development (R&D) Dr. György Seres 2003

3. What’s the difference between animal and human being?

4. Only human being uses military technology. What’s the difference between animal and human being?

5. Military technology comes from club to attack/defense robots by Research and Development (R&D)

6. I show selections from history of Military R&D for illustration

7. Selections from history of Military R&D Attacker tools

8. Version 1.0 Version 3.0 Version 4.0 Version 2.0 Beta version Versions of clubs

9. Swords and sabres

10. Individual distance shooting

11. Artillery

12. Bombs

13. Selections from history of Military R&D Defense tools

15. Selections from history of Military R&D Military vehicles

17. Selections from history of Military R&D Attacker-defender vehicles

19. Unmanned land, undersea and air combat vehicles

20. Selections from history of Military R&D Effective defense against air attack or submarines can be realized by a concerted military system only.Effective defense against air attack or submarines can be realized by a concerted military system only. That’s why the general system theory and the cybernetics were born in the time of Second World War in England.That’s why the general system theory and the cybernetics were born in the time of Second World War in England. Large integrated military systems could not have been created in absence of theoretical results of military R&D.Large integrated military systems could not have been created in absence of theoretical results of military R&D.

21. Selections from history of Military R&D Systems

22. Air Defense System

23. Strategic Defense Initiative ( SDI or Star Wars)

24. Selections from history of Military R&D Future

25. “”The nature of modern warfare demands that we fight as a joint team. … Joint Vision 2010 provides an operationally based template for the evolution of the Armed Forces for a challenging and uncertain future. ….” John M. Shalikashvili Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff By US Army

26. Digital battlefield

27. By US Air Force „Air Force 2025” The Air Force University conducted a study to identify the concepts, capabilities, and technologies the United States will require remaining the dominant air and space force in the first quarter of the 21st century. The study was called Air Force 2025.

28. Worldwide C 4 I system

29. Virtual theatre of war

30. By NMD Team The primary mission of National Missile Defense is defense of the United States (all 50 states) against a threat of a limited strategic ballistic missile attack from a rogue nation. Although intended to protect the United States only, the proposed NMD system will not work without the use of radars in Europe or in territories controlled by European countries.

31. National Missiles Defense system ( NMD )

32. First conclusion Only two type of weapons were developed, against which wasn’t effective defense!

33. Only two types of weapons were developed against which wasn’t effective defense! Club Nuclear weapon &

34. Defensive tool against club was the frightful mask only

35. The SDI was planned as defensive tool against nuclear weapon It hasn’t been realized,but as a result the USSR collapsed It hasn’t been realized, but as a result the USSR collapsed

36. Nevertheless, which defense tool did save the earth from the nuclear war?

37. It is the remembrance of Hiroshima and Nagasaki! This “tool” kept Stalin and Truman in 50’s, Khrushchev and Kennedy in 60’s, and leaders of the rogue nations nowadays back from using of nuclear weapons.

38. I developed a model for study of Military R&D, ( like an old model creator ) Universal model of military system

39. Military system can be a system of any level, from a military alliance to a digital warrior. Alliance, national armed forces, branches, weapon systems, military vehicles, etc. Universal model of military system

40. Military system Universal model of military system Alliance, national armed forces,... military vehicles,... digital warrior

41. Inputs of military system are requirements, conditions, influences, resources from its Environment Outputs are attributes, capabilities, signals, reactions, losses to its Environment Universal model of military system

42. Purpose Military system Environment Attributes, capabilities, signals, reactions, losses Requirements, conditions, influences, resources Inputs Outputs Universal model of military system

43. I begin describing of system from its environment. Why ? Think about Napoleon’s war against Russia, Hitler’s war against the Soviet Union, war of France and USA against Vietnam, or wars of Arabic States against Israel ! –Outcome of these wars did not mirror the power ratio, because attackers paid no enough attention to environmental influences –- Russian Winter, Vietnam Jungle, patriotism of the people, or help of the Diaspora.

44. Environment of military system Environment’s subsystems are: Friendly –Command, –cooperative, –logistics. Enemy –Attack, –defense. Neutral –Geographical, –political –climatic, –meteorological, –daytime, –etc.

45. Purpose Military system Environment Environment of military system Friendly Neutral Enemy Command, cooperative, logistics Geographical, political, meteorological, etc. Attacker/defender

46. I continue describing of system with its purpose. Why ? Think about the Iraq wars of President Bush senior and junior! –The US took no notice of political environment when defined the purpose of the Second Gulf War - reactions of dominant powers of the EU or Russia, and neighboring Islamic States, or domestic force of different Islamic groups.

47. Purpose of military system Purpose of military systems can be determinated by its environment (excluding terrorist military systems, which determinate own purpose itself) Survival Result

48. Determined by friendly environment result can be: –deterrent, –threat, –victory, –defense, –intelligence, –destroy, –occupation, –extortion, –etc. Main result of military systems must be determined by friendly environment

49. Determined by neutral environment result can be : –surviving a desert storm, –surviving a snow, –surviving a sea storm –etc. … but purpose can be determinated also by neutral environment

50. Determined by enemy environment result can be: –Camouflage, –retreat, –etc. … also purpose can be determinated by enemy environment

51. Purpose Military system Environment Purpose of military system Survival Result Camouflage, retreat, etc. Survival of weather storm, etc. Friendly Neutral Enemy Losses Deterrent, threat, victory, destroy, defense, intelligence, occupation, extortion,, etc.

52. Subsystems of military system Before describing the subsystems of military system - before opening the „black box” -, we must place it into its „normal” situation: to the armed combat. Military system can be play attacker or defender role in the armed combat.

53. Survival Result Opposition of military systems: the armed combat Losses Defender military system Survival Result Losses OBJECTIVE Strikes Friendly enemy Neutral Enemy friendly Environment Intelligence Losses Attacker military system

54. Functional model of military system Standard – cybernetics – functional subsystems of military system are: –intelligence, –command & control, –executive.

55. Functional model of subsystems of armed combat can’t be managed

56. Second conclusion If we open „black box” of military system by functional way, its model will be unmanageable from point of view of R&D. That’s why I open „black box” of military system by structural way. Structural model of military system

57. Structural subsystems of military system are: Organization Technology Human System allocates inputs requirements, conditions, influences and resources from environment among its subsystems, and integrates their attributes and capabilities for reaching the purpose of system.

58. Purpose Military system Environment Structural model of military system Survival Result Friendly Neutral Enemy Technology Human Organization

59. A special type of military systems is the military robot, in which –personnel of human subsystem does not stay within physical framework of system, –computer takes over its role, –staff determines purpose, and can intervene into the work of system by reprogramming or remote control from friendly environment, –survival isn’t purpose by definition A special model of military system: military robot

60. Purpose Military system Environment Survival Result Friendly Neutral Enemy Technology Human Organization A special model of military system: military robot

61. Purpose Environment Survival Result Friendly Neutral Enemy Technology Computer Organization Human Military robot A special model of military system: military robot

62. How Hollywood picture them with very rich fantasy …

64. How development engineers created them with very poor fantasy

65. Third conclusion This model of military system is universal, because it is suitable for study :

66. any level of military systemsany level of military systems coherence among human, technology and organization subsystemscoherence among human, technology and organization subsystems influence of different purposes for military systemsinfluence of different purposes for military systems Consequently: subsystems of armed combat can be studied by this model

67. Survival Result Defender subsystem Survival Result OBJECTIVE Friendly enemy Neutral Enemy friendly Environment Attacker subsystem Model of armed combat (comparable systems)

68. Survival Result Survival Result OBJECTIVE Friendly enemy Neutral Enemy friendly Environment Technology Human Organization Human Technology Model of armed combat (comparable systems)

69. Attacker and defender military systems attach to each other by their Technology subsystem in armed combat

70. Survival Result Survival Result OBJECTIVE Friendly enemy Neutral Enemy friendly Environment Technology Human Organization Human Technology Model of armed combat (comparable systems)

71. Model of armed combat (non-comparable systems) Because two armed forces engaged using comparable military technology last in 1975, in Vietnam War, and the two antagonistic superpowers the USA and the USSR had comparable military technology in 1991, we study armed combat, when technology level of adverse military systems isn’t comparable.

72. Model of armed combat (non-comparable systems) This case of the armed combat has three main types: 1.„Kamikaze” type, if survival is not been purpose of the weakest side.

73. Model of armed combat „Kamikaze” type

74. Survival Result Survival Result Friendly enemy Neutral Enemy friendly Environment Technology Human Organization Human Technology Model of armed combat „Kamikaze” type Annihilation OBJECTIVE

75. Model of armed combat (non-comparable systems) This case of the armed combat has three main types: 1.„Kamikaze” type, if survival is not been purpose of the weakest side. 2.„Yugoslavia” type, if the weakest side’s reconnaissance and strike capabilities practically break off after the first strikes of enemy.

76. Survival Result Survival Result OBJECTIVE Friendly enemy Neutral Enemy friendly Environment Technology Human Organization Human Technology Model of armed combat „Yugoslavia” type

77. Model of armed combat (non-comparable systems) This case of the armed combat has three main types: 1.„Kamikaze” type, if survival is not been purpose of the weakest side. 2.„Yugoslavia” type, if the weakest side’s reconnaissance and strike capabilities practically break off after the first strikes of enemy. 3.„Guerilla” type, if the strongest side can’t improve its reconnaissance and strike capabilities, because the weakest side has more experience from the neutral – geographical, meteorological or political – environment

78. Survival Result Survival Result Friendly enemy Neutral Enemy friendly Environment Technology Human Organization Human Technology Model of armed combat „Guerilla” type

79. Survival Result Survival Result Friendly enemy Neutral Enemy friendly Environment Technology Human Organization Human Technology Model of armed combat „Guerilla” type

80. Terrorist using of military system I demonstrate how we can use this model for study using military technology by terrorist systems. Terrorist systems use military technology against innocent people, who have no technology and organization.

81. Survival Result Neutral Terrorist state Environment Technology Human Organization State-terrorist using of military system Using of military system by a terrorist state against innocent people usually does not result losses

82. Terrorist using military technology with human „carrier”

83. Terrorist using of civil technology

84. Survival Result Neutral Terrorist Environment Technology Human Organization Terrorist using of military system For terrorists result is often more important than survival.

85. Anti-terrorist using of military system Anti-terrorist using of state military system can be successful if it tries to prevent terrorist attack,it tries to prevent terrorist attack, it has direct information about all of subsystems of terrorist military system – including information of human intelligence,it has direct information about all of subsystems of terrorist military system – including information of human intelligence, it strikes all subsystems of terrorist military system – including financial founds of organization from terrorist environment.it strikes all subsystems of terrorist military system – including financial founds of organization from terrorist environment.

86. Survival Result Organization Human Technology Survival Result Neutral Terrorist Environment Technology Human Organization Anti-terrorist using of military system State

87. Fourth conclusion This model of military system is universal, because it is suitable for study :

88. any level of military systemsany level of military systems coherence among human, technology and organization subsystemscoherence among human, technology and organization subsystems influence of different purposes for military systemsinfluence of different purposes for military systems armed combat, if technology level of sides isn’t comparablearmed combat, if technology level of sides isn’t comparable role of technology in terrorist military systemrole of technology in terrorist military system Consequently, for study of main trends of military R&D