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Spatial Indices of Upwelling 1) Coastal Topography
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Premise Average spatial patterns of coastal ocean processes are strongly influenced by topography and bathymetry
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How to quantify coastal topography?
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‘Coastal Anomaly’ Broitman and Kinlan 2006 MEPS, In press
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BaysHeadlands
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(Embayments) 0 +1.0 (Headlands) Normalized residual from smoothed coast COASTAL STRUCTURE Along-coast Distance (km) Scale of Smoothing (km)
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Smoothing Scale=1000 km COASTAL STRUCTURE
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Smoothing Scale=50 km COASTAL STRUCTURE
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S. Africa WNAChile Coastal Topographic Index
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Easily calculated Data readily available Arbitrarily high resolution Can index processes at multiple scales Indirect index; index of upwelling or any other process depends on nature of coupling Not dynamic (no time component) Oversimplified? Cons Pros
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SST
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Spatial Indices of Upwelling 2) SST-derived indices
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time longitude latitude Coastal SST
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Latitudinal mean at each pixel
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Topographic Index and dSST Spatial Series
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C) Topo vs. Δ SST Correlation between Topo and dSST indices
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Correlation with Bakun Regional Index
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Ecosystem Structure
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Spatial patterns of kelp and phytoplankton Biomass Areal cover
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chl-a vs. kelp Spatial Cross-Correlations
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A) Topo vs. kelp B) Topo vs. chl-a C) Topo vs. Δ SST Spatial Cross-Correlations
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Jones et al 1988, Cont Shelf Res
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Approximately the same characteristic scale Alongcoast scales: Variogram Analysis
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VariableNugget (SE)Sill (SE)Range (SE) (km) Kelp0.35 (0.09)0.65 (0.09)188 (100) Chl-a0.13 (0.08)0.87 (0.08)178 (34) ΔSST † 0.008 (0.007)0.992 (0.007)151 (18) Coast Anomaly0.04 (0.03)0.96 (0.03)161 (40) Alongcoast scales: Variogram Analysis
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Onshore Community Patterns
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South Africa 58 sites along 2000 km of coast WNA 73 sites along 6000 km of coast Chile 26 sites 1000 km of coast
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What scale of coastal features matter to the process you’re interested in? Correlation between variable of interest and topographic index at each smoothing scale
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-25-20-15-10-50510152025 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Along-coast Lag Distance (km) Cross-Correlation Scale of pattern is just part of the question Peak @ 15 km in the poleward direction
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Correlations with Coastal Anomaly – South Africa
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Correlation with Coastal Anomaly – Mussels CHILE SOUTH AFRICA
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Chile – Upwelling-Recruitment Dynamics Seen in Bare Space?
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Coastal Topography and Physical Forcing CHILE SOUTH AFRICA
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Correlation with Coastal Anomaly: Mussels CHILE SOUTH AFRICA
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Correlation with Coastal Anomaly: Trophic Grps CHILE SOUTH AFRICA
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Long-term Average Recruitment vs. Topography at 21 Coastal Sites Green=Chthamalus Black=Balanus
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Balanus r2=0.84, p<0.0001 Multiple regression with: Topo10km, Topo150km, Coastal Coordinate (linear latitudinal trend)
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Other processes correlated with topography
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Aside… Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling for Data Integration & Complex Hypothesis Testing
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Santa Barbara Offshore Ocean Nearshore Ocean Site 3 Site 4 Site 2 Site 1 Offshore Larval Pool
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Santa Barbara Offshore OceanNearshore Ocean Recruitment Offshore Larval Pool Sea Temp (SST) Chlorophyll A Current Recruitment 16 points in time, each describing previous month
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0, 1, m 2 R it ~Poisson(F t H it e i ) k,S Likelihood: Parameters: Priors: N(0,10 -3 ) vague Data: SST t-TS G it R it IG(10 -3,10 - 3 ) vague N(0,10 -3 ) vague Links: F t = k + S TS *SST t-TS Logit(H it )= 0 + 1 G it + g g ~N(0,m 2 ) i ~N(0, 2 ) IG(2,10) informative 22 TS=0 2 i = space index, t = time index Offshore Larval Pool Onshore Delivery Combine these to get Recruitment
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Chl, gate+errror, Gamma SST, gate+errror, Gamma SST, gate+errror, Poisson SST, gate+errror, Poisson, site effects
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