2. Monthly Mean Carbon Flux Estimates: Some Network Considerations Lori Bruhwiler, Anna Michalak, Wouter Peters, Pieter Tans NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory Boulder, CO USA David Baker National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO USA

3. 2004 TransCom III Meeting Fixed-Lag Kalman Smoother Balances Prior Flux Estimates Against New Information From Observations Using Prior Flux and “Measurement” Errors

4. 2004 TransCom III Meeting Fixed-Lag Kalman Smoother Balances Prior Flux Estimates Against New Information From Observations Using Prior Flux and “Measurement” Errors Limits {

5. 2004 TransCom III Meeting Basis Functions

6. 2004 TransCom III Meeting Time-Stepping Batch

7. 2004 TransCom III Meeting Time-Stepping Batch Smoother

8. 2004 TransCom III Meeting Propagation of Flux and Covariance Estimates Flux estimates incorporated by using basis functions to incorporate into background state Analytic technique used to propagate covariance forward in time

9. 2004 TransCom III Meeting Boreal North America No Covariance Propagation Covariance Propagation

10. 2004 TransCom III Meeting Advantages of the Fixed-Lag Kalman Smoother Basis Functions Transported For a Limited Period of Time (6-9 Months seems about right) Computationally Efficient For Multi-Decadal Inversions since the sizes of the matrices are much smaller Possible to do Many Inversions Quickly with Lots of Sites

11. 2004 TransCom III Meeting Comparison of Kalman Smoother and Batch Estimates

12. 2004 TransCom III Meeting Prior Uncertainties Model-Data Mismatch Error Select Sites

13. 2004 TransCom III Meeting What is the Model/Data Mismatch Error?

14. 2004 TransCom III Meeting

16. Which Sites Should We Use? Courtesy of T. Conway

17. 2004 TransCom III Meeting

24. Partitioning of Carbon Fluxes

25. 2004 TransCom III Meeting

31. Summary Fixed-Lag Kalman Smoother Offers a Computationally- Efficient Method for Decadal Inversions Computational Cost of Keeping More Months of Transport Must be Balanced with Reductions in Uncertainty (Balance is Definitely Tipped Towards Fewer Months!) Changes in Network Configuration are Another Source of Uncertainty for Flux Estimates The NOAA Goal of +/- 0.3 GtC/yr for Temperate North America seems Achievable

32. 2004 TransCom III Meeting

33. Planned Cooperative Observing Network (2010)