Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Hydrologic Predictability and Water Year 2009 Predictions in the Columbia River Basin Andy Wood Matt Wiley Bart Nijssen Climate and Water Resource Forecasts.

Published by Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Hydrologic Predictability and Water Year 2009 Predictions in the Columbia River Basin Andy Wood Matt Wiley Bart Nijssen Climate and Water Resource Forecasts."— Presentation transcript:

1 Hydrologic Predictability and Water Year 2009 Predictions in the Columbia River Basin Andy Wood Matt Wiley Bart Nijssen Climate and Water Resource Forecasts for the 2009 Water Year UW Climate Impacts Group October 2, 2008, Vancouver, WA

2 Presentation Outline 1. Introduction 2. Current Conditions 3. Predictability in the Columbia R. Basin 4. Climate Predictions 5. Water Year 2009 Streamflow Outlook

3 Average annual water cycle The PNW hydrologic cycle PNW * Where we are now on average  soil moisture near annual low  runoff near low  nearly all water year precipitation yet to come  snow season not really underway  evaporation waning

4 Hydrologic Model-based Forecasting ICs* Spin-upForecast obs recently observed meteorological data ensemble of met. data to generate forecast hydrologic state IC = initial conditions ENSO subset 1960 1961 1962 … 1999 ESP Can adjust IC by assimilating snow or other observations a forecast has two key elements - initial conditions - climate forecast Werner et al. (2003) weighting scheme for traces rather than a subset

5 Initial Conditions – Soil Moisture

6 Soil Moisture Projections

7

8 Current Soil Moisture Conditions

9 Is it dry in the Columbia R. Basin? Last year’s snowpack was good to great, but was based on normal or below precipitation in places USDA/NRCS

10 Then, late summer was fairly dry… Is it dry in the Columbia R. Basin?

11 What do the streamflows say? ID

12 What do the streamflows say? BC

13

14

15

16

17

18 But how much do ICs matter in Fall?  3TIER was recently funded by NOAA (SBIR) to run a massive set of ensemble hindcasts.  56 years (1949-2005) of 56-member ESP forecasts for 72 locations in the PNW  archived streamflow, climate and water balance variables at a daily timestep  1-year lead time forecasts  6 start dates: 1 st day of Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr  Many applications:  measure model-based prediction skill  calculate forecast corrections

19 Nov. 1 Forecast For every combination of historical IC with met. forecast… what fraction of normal runoff was produced? driest obs IC + driest met year wettest obs IC + wettest met year

20 Nov. 1 Forecast Early in the water year, wet IC adds < 10% dry IC removes < 10% from April-July flow forecast

21 Dec. 1 Forecast As water year progresses, ICs become more important precip forecasts less important

22 Jan. 1 Forecast By January 1, knowing ICs is becoming as important as knowing future climate, for Apr-July flow prediction

23 Feb. 1 Forecast In February – April, the shift to the dominance of ICs (snow and soil moisture) progresses.

24 Mar. 1 Forecast In February – April, the shift to the dominance of ICs (snow and soil moisture) progresses.

25 Apr. 1 Forecast On April 1, the difference between the wettest & driest Spring met for forecast Apr-Jul flow is minor.

26 Given average precipitation in October, where will The Dalles forecast be on Nov. 1 this year?

27 Climate Prediction THIS YEAR

28 2008 La Nina versus Normal conditions: Oct-Dec oct nov dec precip temperature SWEsoil moistrunoff

29 2008 La Nina versus Normal conditions: Jan-Mar jan feb mar precip temperature SWEsoil moistrunoff

30 2008 La Nina versus Normal conditions: Apr-Jun apr may jun precip temperature SWEsoil moistrunoff

31 http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/figure3.html Current ENSO Forecasts… ….mostly point toward a neutral winter:

32 http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/ Yet a few are turning toward La Nina…

33 US and Europe agree on something? NCEP ECMWF A number of forecasts update within the next week – worth checking at: http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENS O/currentinfo/modelviews.html

34 Where NOAA fears to tread… http://www.almanac.com/weather/index.php

35 Water Year 2009 Forecasts

36 2009 Natural Runoff Volume Forecasts Columbia River at Mica Dam percent of normal (‘71-’00) for period Jan-JulApr-JulApr-Sep 97 97 98

37 2009 Natural Runoff Volume Forecasts Pend Oreille River at Albeni Falls Dam percent of normal (‘71-’00) for period Jan-JulApr-JulApr-Sep 99 99 99

38 2009 Natural Runoff Volume Forecasts Columbia River at Grand Coulee Dam percent of normal (‘71-’00) for period Jan-JulApr-JulApr-Sep 97 97 97

39 2009 Natural Runoff Volume Forecasts Snake River below Lower Granite Dam percent of normal (‘71-’00) for period Jan-JulApr-JulApr-Sep 89 89 90

40 2009 Natural Runoff Volume Forecasts Columbia River at The Dalles, OR percent of normal (‘71-’00) for period Jan-JulApr-JulApr-Sep 95 95 95

41 percent of normal (71-00) for period NameJan-JulApr-JulApr-Sep Columbia River at The Dalles, OR 95 95 95 Columbia River at Grand Coulee Dam 97 97 97 Snake River below Lower Granite Dam 89 89 90 Pend Oreille River at Albeni Falls Dam 99 99 99 Columbia River at Mica Dam 97 97 98 2009 Natural Runoff Volume Forecasts Summary

42 questions? awood @ 3tiergroup.com thank you!

Download ppt "Hydrologic Predictability and Water Year 2009 Predictions in the Columbia River Basin Andy Wood Matt Wiley Bart Nijssen Climate and Water Resource Forecasts."

Similar presentations

Water Year 2013: Current Conditions and Early Season Outlook in the Colorado River Basin CRFS November 14, 2012.

Water Year 2013: Current Conditions and Early Season Outlook in the Colorado River Basin CRFS November 14, 2012.
Andy Wood Univ. of Washington Dept. of Civil & Envir. Engr. Statistics related to the merging of short and long lead precipitation predictions in the continental.

Andy Wood Univ. of Washington Dept. of Civil & Envir. Engr. Statistics related to the merging of short and long lead precipitation predictions in the continental.
Northwest River Forecast Center Seasonal Volume Outlook Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2012 Water Year Steve King, Sr. Hydrologist Northwest.

Northwest River Forecast Center Seasonal Volume Outlook Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2012 Water Year Steve King, Sr. Hydrologist Northwest.
Northwest River Forecast Center Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2011 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist

Northwest River Forecast Center Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2011 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist
Hydrologic Outlook for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering for Washington Water.

Hydrologic Outlook for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering for Washington Water.
Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental.
Recap of WY 2006. ENSO is typically very stable from Oct-Jan.

Recap of WY ENSO is typically very stable from Oct-Jan.
Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental.
Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil Engineering University of Washington September,

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil Engineering University of Washington September,
Inland Northwest 2009-10 Climate Recap and 2010-11 Seasonal Outlook Dr. John Abatzoglou Department of Geography University of Idaho 10 th Annual Climate.

Inland Northwest Climate Recap and Seasonal Outlook Dr. John Abatzoglou Department of Geography University of Idaho 10 th Annual Climate.
Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2008 Water Year Ray Fukunaga, Senior Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.

Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2008 Water Year Ray Fukunaga, Senior Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.
Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet.

Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet.
Mid-Range Streamflow Forecasts for River Management in the Puget Sound Region Richard Palmer Matthew Wiley Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Mid-Range Streamflow Forecasts for River Management in the Puget Sound Region Richard Palmer Matthew Wiley Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.
Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2007 Water Year Kevin Berghoff, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.

Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2007 Water Year Kevin Berghoff, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.
Long Term Streamflow Forecast Validation Western Washington Watersheds Water Year 2004 If only we’d seen this one coming... Pascal Storck 3TIER Environmental.

Long Term Streamflow Forecast Validation Western Washington Watersheds Water Year 2004 If only we’d seen this one coming... Pascal Storck 3TIER Environmental.
Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2006 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.

Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2006 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.
Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources in the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood Alan Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental.

Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources in the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood Alan Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental.
Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and streamflow in the western U.S. Andy Wood, Alan Hamlet and Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental.

Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and streamflow in the western U.S. Andy Wood, Alan Hamlet and Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental.
Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2007 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.

Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2007 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.
Mid-Range Streamflow Forecasts for Water Supply Management in the Puget Sound Region Matthew Wiley Richard Palmer October 26, 2005.

Mid-Range Streamflow Forecasts for Water Supply Management in the Puget Sound Region Matthew Wiley Richard Palmer October 26, 2005.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google