Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
1
July 2010 From “V” to “U” Benjamin Tal
2
|2|2 Impact of US Stimulus Package and Inventory Changes on US GDP Growth
3
|3|3 US Core CPI Slowest in Half Century
4
|4|4 US Double Dip Recession in Google
5
|5|5 Probability of Recession
6
|6|6 Canadian Stimulus Withdrawal a Major Drag
7
|7|7 OIS Implied BoC Expectations
8
|8|8 Hikes Will Still Leave Rates Low by Historical Standards
9
|9|9 Stability Fund Covers Refinancing
10
| 10 Size of Fiscal Cuts Needed to Stabilize Net Debt-to-GDP Ratio
11
| 11 China’s Purchasing Index Points to 10% Growth Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
12
| 12 Chinese Stocks Don’t Always Reflect Economy Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
13
| 13 Incomes Have Kept Pace With Housing Costs Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
14
| 14 Little Inflation Outside of Food Source: Bloomberg, CIBC
15
| 15 Canadian Dollar Rich Relative to Commodities
16
| 16 Fixed Income Inflows Driving C$ Appreciation: C$ to Average Near Parity Through 2011
17
| 17 Global Economy to Slow in the Second Half Source: CIBC
18
| 18 Analysts’ Track Record in Predicting S&P 500 Earnings Source: Thomson Reuters, CIBC
19
| 19 US Earnings Growth Expectations Have Been Ratcheted Up More Aggressively Than in Canada Source: Thomson Reuters, CIBC
20
| 20 Capital Intensive Industries Behind Manufacturing Rebound Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, CIBC * Thousand US$ per worker (2004)
21
| 21 Rising Canadian Equity Market Correlation with Non-US Stocks Source: MSCI/Barra Total Return Index, CIBC
22
| 22 Canadian Equities More Correlated with Global Stocks in Bad Times Source: MSCI/Barra Total Return Index, CIBC
23
| 23 Correlation of TSX Sector Returns to World Equities During Periods of Global Underperformance* Source: MSCI/Barra Total Return Index, CIBC
24
| 24 Correlation of Various Asset Classes with World Equities During Periods of Underperformance* Source: MSCI/Barra Total Return Index, CIBC
25
| 25 Exposure of Exporting Nations to the Eurozone Source: EuroStat, CIBC
26
| 26 Canada’s Government Debt Burden the Least Onerous Note: Based on IMF projections
27
| 27 Government Debt and Per Capita GDP Growth Source: IMF, “Navigating the Fiscal Challenges Ahead”, May 2010 0 50 100150200 250 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 Per capita GDP growth, (%/annum), average for subsequent 5 years Initial Gross Debt Level (in % of GDP)
28
| 28 Canada’s Banks Well Capitalized by International Standards Source: CIBC, IMF
29
| 29 Projected Growth in Economically Active Population, 2010-2015 Source: International Labour Organization
30
| 30 Canadian Companies Less Leveraged Than US Ones Source: Statistics Canada, Federal Reserve
31
| 31 Thank You This material was prepared for investment professionals only and is not for public distribution. It is for informational purposes only and is not intended to convey investment, legal, or tax advice. The material and/or its contents may not be reproduced without the express written consent of Renaissance Investments.
32
| 32 Questions & Answers
Similar presentations
© 2025 SlidePlayer.com. Inc.
All rights reserved.