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Balkans ’ Integration Process at the Crossroads Rethinking Southeastern Europe through a pan-European perspective Transcending Europe’s Borders: The EU and its Neighbours — ICCEES Regional European Congress — Berlin, 2 August 2007 Center for European Integration Strategies (CEIS) Geneva — Vienna — Sarajevo Christophe Solioz
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2 Welcome
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3 Focus Assess the current situation in Southeastern Europe Review the EU Integration process Outline a pan-European perspective
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4 [ 1. Economy is doing fine - take GDP ] 20022003200420052006 2007 2008 1st quarter Forecast Croatia5.65.34.3 4.86.07.055 The fYR Macedonia0.92.84.13.83.12.27.044 Turkey7.95.88.97.46.16.7.5.56.5 Candidate countries7.55.78.37.05.96.5.5.46.3 Albania4.35.86.25.64.9..55.5 Bosnia and Herzegovina5.53.06.05.56.2..66 Montenegro1.72.44.24.06.56.86.655 Serbia4.22.58.46.25.77.08.755 Potential candidate countries4.53.17.35.8..5.25.3
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5 [ 1. An overall positive picture ] ò Continued growth can be assessed to be sustainable ò Business climate has improved ò Rapid growth of exports ò Increased foreign investments ò Recovered labour market ò Macroeconomic stability and low inflation ò Employment tends to recover more slowly 4Southeast European countries clearly show signs of the catching-up economies
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6 [ 1.a. Transition indicators for 2006 ] large scale privatization small scale privatization restructuringprice liberaliz- ation foreign trade and exchange rate regimes compe- tition policy Banking reform and interest rate liberalization Albania3.004.002.334.33 2.002.67 Bosnia and Herzegovina 2.673.002.004.003.671.672.67 Croatia3.334.333.004.004.332.334.00 The f YR Macedonia3.334.002.674.33 2.002.67 Montenegro3.333.002.004.003.331.002.67 Serbia2.673.672.334.003.331.672.67
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7 [ 1.b. Transition indicators for 2006 ] Stock- exchange and other non- banking financial services Other infrastructure reforms Telecommu- nications railroadselectricityroadswater and waste-water Albania1.672.003.002.002.672.001.67 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.672.33 3.00 2.00 Croatia3.00 3.672.673.00 3.33 The f YR Macedonia2.33 3.002.003.002.33 Montenegro1.672.003.001.002.332.00 Serbia2.00 2.33 2.671.67
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8 [ 1. Consequences of the ‘pause’ ] ‘ Enlargement fatigue ’ has had negative consequences ‘ Reform fatigue ’ characterizes the public governance ‘ Soft powers ’ show some limits in Bosnia and Kosovo 4EU needs to rethink the European project in the region and, above all, embrace politics in order to make Southeastern Europe work
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9 [ 2. Towards a EU ‘Reform Treaty’ ] ò Aimed to replace the defunct proposed constitution Improve the EU international presence with a High Rep ’ ò Provide the institutional framework to resume the enlargement ò Would-be EU members will face monitoring regime ò Planning for 2007-09 Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA) 4The institutional and financial capacities to proceed with the EU integration process are now available
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10 [ 2. SEE EU Accession Forecast ] SAANegotiationsEUEuro Bulgaria1995199920072009 Romania1995199920072012 Croatia2005 20102012 The fYR Macedonia200520082012-20132015 Albania20062009by 2015by 2017 Bosnia and Herzegovina20072009by 2015by 2017 Serbia20072009by 2015by 2017 Montenegro20072010by 20152002
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11 Outlook no 1 4EU membership perspective: not as a false hope, but as a realistic development prospect 4The EU integration process remains essentially a country-by- country approach that partly undermines regional co-operation in spite of the rhetoric 4The fostering of effective neighbourhood relations, regional co-operation should be seen not as a conditionality, but as strategic setting
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12 [ 3.1. Necessity of a broader Approach ] Individual strategies and good-neighbourly relations cannot tackle all the challenges that the countries in the region face National and bilateral solutions are not enough when it comes to economic development, climate change, migration pressure, energy policy strategies and international terrorism etc. 4Only a pan-European vision sets the bilateral issues and the regional dimension in a coherent and significant framework
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13 [ 3.2. A pan-European approach ] òLinks national and regional, local and global perspectives in a multilateral cooperation framework òEncompasses political and socio-economic aspects, the security dimension and the development challenges òCovers Eastern and Southeastern Europe, the Black Sea Region, the Caucasus region, Russia, reaching out towards Eurasia
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14 [ 3.3. A pan-European approach ] Fosters these countries ’ European identity Contributes to the development of a common EU-U.S.- Russia approach to the open questions Promotes a pan-European economic integration and co- operation process, beyond too narrowly conceived regional frameworks. 4Complementing the EU integration process, pan-European institutions should give life to a renewed pan-European dynamic.
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15 Outlook no 2 Taking into account that Europe has to face new divisions A newly assertive Russia The necessity to enhance co-operation in a new environment. 4Pan-European organizations have an obvious role to play in restoring confidence and building new bridges
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16 Thank you for your attention
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