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Modeling Institutional Constraints on Housing Behavior in China: Zhilin Liu School of Public Policy & Management Tsinghua University, Beijing, China 13-15 December 2007 Conceptual and Methodological Challenges International Conference on China’s Urban Land and Housing in the 21st Century, Hong Kong
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The Conceptual Challenge Actors – Institutions Giddens, The agency-structure problem The Institutional Turn in Social Sciences Institutions as “ the rules of the game in a society. ” (North,1990) Defining the opportunity sets of market players Preferences endogenously determined How to incorporate the institutional dimension into the study of housing behavior? The context of an emerging market economy
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An New Institutional Framework Understanding individual behavior from an institutional perspective Individuals Preference and utility Institutions Rules of the game Figure 1 A simplified framework of new institutional economics on interactions of actors and institutions
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Context: Housing Marketization Declining influence of public sector investment in residential development Figure 2 Completed investment in residential development and the share of investment by SOEs by year, Beijing, 1995-2004 Source: Beijing Statistical Bureau, various years
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Context: Housing Marketization Rising Homeownership 72%, 2000 National Census Improved housing condition SQ.M (National Statistical Bureau of China, 2006)
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Macro VS Micro Approaches Housing Policy Policy review and evaluation Policy implementation process Housing Inequality: Low-income housing Housing Behavior Growing visibility of individual preferences Persistent influence of the welfare system Government role in affecting housing behavior
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Current Debates State vs Market Housing Behavior Individual Preferences Purchasing Power Political Order (Political Capital) Work Units Welfare System Growing Individual Choices Persistent Welfare System Figure 3 A Market Transition Framework for Modeling Housing Behavior HUKOU
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Institutional Transformation Market Transition Dismantling of the state socialist system Dismantling of the welfare system Market Emergence / Institutional Building Property rights; rules of market transaction; regulations and governance structure Normative shift State Role in Market Building Government actions in low-income housing Regulation
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An Institutional Framework Institutional Constraints in an Emerging Housing Market: A Conceptual Framework Housing Behavior Individual Preferences (Socio-demographic) Political Capital Economic Capital Imperfect Market o Transaction costs o Information asymmetry o Limited supply Government Actions o Public housing programs o Planning o Land policy Regulatory Framework o Property Rights o Housing finance o Tax and fiscal policy
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Proposals Housing Decisions and Transaction Costs Unclear property rights Information disadvantage of residents High uncertainty of transaction Continuous policy modifications Housing Affordability and Public Finance Government Housing Programs Low-income residents ’ mobility and residential satisfaction
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Hidden Costs in Public Housing Programs Constraints on Low-income Residents Limited Supply Government dominating the decision of public housing programs
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谢谢!
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