2. INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF TRADE RELATED POLICIES IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF TRADE RELATED POLICIES IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR Strategy for developing an integrated assessment framework. Experience from East Africa By Cornelius Kazoora Director Sustainable Development Centre Makerere University Campus e-mail: sdc@imul.com

3. Structure of Presentation Structure of Presentation List of some case studies List of some case studies Lessons and issues from case studies Lessons and issues from case studies Implications for developing and /or improving integrated assessments Implications for developing and /or improving integrated assessments Specific strategies for integrated assessment Specific strategies for integrated assessment Emerging opportunities in support of integrated assessments Emerging opportunities in support of integrated assessments

4. Approach used(1) Reviewed some assessments and related studies that have been made, specifically in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania Identified the strategies that were used in the assessment

5. Approach used (2) Based on recommendations and emerging issues from those assessments, drew implications for improvement of strategies for integrated assessmentsBased on recommendations and emerging issues from those assessments, drew implications for improvement of strategies for integrated assessments

6. Some case studies(1) - Cost - benefit analysis - Economic valuation - Qualitative approaches ForestryIntegrated assessment of trade liberalization and trade related policies Impact of agricultural trade and related policy reforms on food security 1. Tanzania ToolsSectorStudyCountry -- - - - Cross - sectional household survey data, 1982, 1992, 1997 Agriculture (KIPPRA) 2. Kenya

7. Some case studies(2) -Environmental audits -Pollution measurement in fish & leather, factories, and flower farms FisheriesEnvironmental impacts of trade liberalization and policies for sustainable management of natural resources (EPRC ) ) 3. Uganda ToolsSectorStudyCountry -Environmental audits -Pollution measurement in fish & leather, factories, and flower farms FisheriesEnvironmental impacts of trade liberalization and policies for sustainable management of natural resources ) ) 3. Uganda ToolsSectorStudyCountry

8. Some case studies(3) -Modeling -Field based analysis &interviews -GIS analysis Agriculture Wildlife A system for integrated management and assessment of East African pastoral lands ILRI, Nairobi University, Colorado State university, National Resource Ecology Laboratory 4. Kenya Tanzania ToolsSectorStudyCountry -Modeling -Field based analysis &interviews -GIS analysis Agriculture Wildlife A system for integrated management and assessment of East African pastoral lands 4. Kenya Tanzania ToolsSectorStudyCountry

9. Some case studies(4) -CGE model AgricultureThe impact on Uganda of Agricultural trade liberalization, Adam Blake, AndrewMckay and Oliver Morrissey 2001 5. Uganda ToolsSectorStudyCountry -CGE model AgricultureThe impact on Uganda of Agricultural trade liberalization, 5. Uganda ToolsSectorStudyCountry

10. Some case studies(5) - Trend Analysis IMPACT model Agriculture Food security &Nutrition Ugandan trade policy and export performance Morrissey & Nichodemas Rudaheramua International model for Policy Analysis of agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model Description Mark W, Rosegrant, SietMeijer &Sarah.Acline(2002) IFPRI 6. Uganda 7. Kenya, Tanzania Uganda ToolsSectorStudyCountry - in the 1990s.,

11. Some case studies(6) Review of Literature AgriculturePoverty Reduction and Agricultural Trade in Sub- Saharan Africa USAID, 2004 8. SSA, including Uganda, Kenya& Tanzania ToolsSectorStudyCountry Review of Literature AgriculturePoverty Reduction and Agricultural Trade in Sub- Saharan Africa 8. SSA, including Uganda, Kenya& Tanzania ToolsSectorStudyCountry

12. Emerging challenges& needs (1) How to choose data and methodologies that help establish causal links between trade-related policies and impacts on biodiversity (Policy Briefs-Trade&Biodiversity, IUCN 2004) How to discern the impact from other economic factors that would affect agricultural markets. For example, Oliver Morrissey and Nichodemus Rudaheramua established that beyond trade liberalisation, there is need to consider infrastructure and institutional support

13. Emerging challenges& needs (2) How to move beyond site specific evidence and from conceptual to empirical analysis (IUCN 2004). In fact, USAID (2004) also proposed: “Help SSA develop an empirical basis to support trade policy decisions regarding regional and global markets ” How to capture distributional gains in agriculture (i.e urban vs rural, and by region. Adam Blake, Andrew Mackay and Olives Morrissey 2001)

14. Emerging challenges& needs (3) How to place the recommendations from assessment into an institutional home for their implementation. For example, the assessment team in Tanzania recommended a Task Force for the purpose. In Uganda, the Ministry of Tourism, Trade and Industry has formed an Inter- institutional Trade Committee( IITC) of 22 government ministries and statutory bodies, 5 private sector umbrella organisations, 5 NGOs&CSOs &2 Academia to oversee policy formulation

15. Emerging challenges& needs (4) Any assessment of the impact of a policy reform requires a benchmark against which to compare the current values ( ex post) or the simulated values ( ex-ante).[FAO] Where statistics are not available for two distinct periods in time, a “with and without” approach may be appropriate

16. Emerging challenges& needs (5) Issues and impacts in trade are cross- sectoral, not necessarily agriculture- specific, hence creating the need to be cautious when recommending policy revisions. Bernard Hoekman&Kym Arderson, 1999[ Developing Country Agriculture &the New Trade Agenda] World Bank

17. Implication from the proceeding evidence Strategies for integrated assessments have to adopt a phased, but linked approach broken down as follows: - Preparation &planning phase -Assessment phase -Implementation phase -Monitoring phase

18. Phases at which to develop strategies Preparation and Planning phase Assessment phase Monitoring phase Implementation phase

19. Strategies- Planning Phase(1) Create awareness of the issues to be assessed Source relevant multi-disciplinary personnel or skills to carry out assessment Formulate the appropriate conceptual& analytical framework

20. Strategies- Careful Planning for the assessment(2) Train the team members in the use of the tools Identify relevant data to feed into the analytical framework Make a list of stakeholder institutions to be consulted Make a plan for cost-effective consultative process Select the organizational arrangement or structure to coordinate the assessment team, and to review the results

21. Strategies - Careful planning assessment (3) Plan for dissemination, and “housing”of likely recommendations for implementation Identify the audience to impact upon when assessment is complete Plan the advocacy tools that will be used for advocacy Develop communication strategy

22. Explore the use of the media and the press to create awareness, and generate interest around the ‘subject’ of assessment Budget for implementation of above strategies Strategies - Careful planning assessment (3)

23. Strategies – Assessment phase Maintain and support communication and dialogue among assessment team members Provide technical assistance, if need be, to bring best practices and experiences from elsewhere e.g in quantifying &valuing impacts Identify data and capacity gaps Build consensus on major impacts and their indicators

24. Strategies – Implantation phase Form relevant structure to take recommendations forward Provide funds for implementation, if need be Build capacity Arrange to update and or collect relevant data Implement the communication &advocacy strategies

25. Strategies – Monitoring phase Identify new policies to formulate or old ones to fine-tune Identify new problem areas for integrated assessment