1. The IPCC 4 th assessment: Influence of Future Changes in Emissions on Atmospheric Chemistry by 2030. Jérôme Drevet - Isabelle Bey Frank Dentener - David Stevenson – Twan Van Noije And all modelers: J.F. Müller, Arlene Fiore, Tim Butler, Michael Gauss, Didier Hauglustaine, Kengo Sudo, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Oliver Wild, Veronica Montanaro, Jose M. Rodriguez, Martin G. Schultz, Jean-François Lamarque GEOS-CHEM meeting 04-05-2004

2. IPCC – AR 4 The IPCC 4 th Assessment Report (AR4) will be completed in 2006. Chapter 7 will focus on Coupling between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry. 2 experiments are performed: Experiment I (delta O 3 - RF): Examines past changes in ozone (1850- 2000) and for the future (by 2100) Experiment II (AQ - climate): Examines changes in atmospheric composition by 2030 using a variety of models (CTMs and CCMs). - tropospheric ozone - N-deposition - NO 2 columns

3. 24 Models IASB KNMI TM4 TM5 MATCH-MPIC-NCEP MATCH-MPIC-ECNWF UIO2 LMDz STOCHEM-HadGEM STOCHEM-HadAM3 GEOS-CHEM GISS MOCAGE FRSGC_UCI ULAQ GMIDAO GMICCM MOZECH LLNL MOZART4 STOCED UM_CAM CHASER CTM CHASER GCM GEOS v7.01.02 GEOS3 - 30 vertical levels 4°x5° horizontal grid resolution

4. IPCC4 Scenarios SimID emissions MeteoDescriptionCH 4 concentration S1 CLE-20002000Baseline : Current Legislation of Emissions (CLE) for 2000 1760 ppbv S2 CLE-20302000CLE for 20302088 ppbv S3 MFR-20302000MFR (Maximum Feasible Reduction) for 2030 : optimistic technology scenario. 1760 ppbv S4 A2-20302000A2 (the most ‘pessimistic’ IPCC SRES scenario), harmonized with IIASA emissions for 2000 2163 ppbv S4s A2-20302000A2 with ‘high’ ship emissions2163 ppbv S5 CLE-20302030Climate Change Simulation. Prescribed SST data for 2030 2088 ppbv

5. Anthropogenic Emissions AgricultureIndustryDomestic Emissions TrafficTOTAL CO (Tg CO) -38-41 34-74 238-185 139-387 195-171 50-300 471-397 223-761 NMVOC (Tg NMVOC) -39-46 40-71 29-24 18-40 48-44 15-65 116-114 73-176 NO x (Tg NO 2 ) -34-36 11-57 5-6 4-15 53-65 28-107 92-107 43-179 SO 2 (Tg SO 2 ) -88-90 15-148 10-8 4-20 11-16 14-32 109-114 33-200 NH 3 (Tg NH 3 ) 53-71 71-74 0.5-0.8 0.8-0.8 6-7 7-8 -60-79 79-83 CLE-2000CLE-2030MFR-2030A2-2030

6. O 3 annual zonal mean (CLE-2000) Annual Zonal Mean O 3 S1 Mask O 3 >150ppbv Courtesy: David Stevenson

7. O 3 Budget (CLE-2000) Values in Tg O 3

8. Ozone zonal mean - ΔO3 (S2-S1) -10 -5 0 5 10 ppbv Courtesy: David Stevenson

9. Ozone zonal mean - ΔO3 (S3-S1) -10 -5 0 5 10 ppbv Courtesy: David Stevenson

10. Ozone zonal mean - ΔO3 (S4-S1) -20 -10 0 10 20 ppbv Courtesy: David Stevenson

11. Annual NO y Deposition (Tg N) Courtesy: Frank Dentener

12. NO y Deposition (CLE-2000) Courtesy: Frank Dentener CHASER (FRCGC) TM4 (JRC)MOZART4 (NCAR) GEOS-CHEM mg N/m 2 /year

13. NO y Deposition (S1) – zoom over Europe CHASER (FRCGC) TM4 (JRC)MOZART4 (NCAR) GEOS-CHEM Courtesy: Frank Dentener mg N/m 2 /year

14. Wet Deposition / Total deposition Courtesy: Frank Dentener

15. NO y Wet deposition Evaluation Courtesy: Frank Dentener CHASER (FRCGC) TM4 (JRC)MOZART4 (NCAR) GEOS-CHEM 0 100 200 300 400 500 ( mgN / m2 / year)0 100 200 300 400 500 0 100 200 300 400 500 ( mgN / m2 / year) 0 100 200 300 400 500 Observations - EMEF ModelModel ModelModel ModelModel ModelModel R=0.78 R=0.81 R=0.70 R=0.84

16. Annual NH x Deposition (Tg N) Courtesy: Frank Dentener

17. NH x Deposition (S1) Courtesy: Frank Dentener CHASER (FRCGC) TM4 (JRC)MOZART4 (NCAR) GEOS-CHEM mg N/m 2 /year

18. Wet deposition/Total Deposition Courtesy: Frank Dentener

19. N-Deposition in GEOS-CHEM: Comparisons between different runs

20. NO 2 column Courtesy: Twan Van Noije

21. O 3 simulation : - GEOS-CHEM is in the middle range in general - Production and loss rates in the low range - Decrease in concentration for the MFR-2030 scenario in the very high range. Problem ? - In general it seems that the differences between all models are smaller than for the previous IPCC. Deposition : - NO y and NH X Global values and patterns in the middle range - Ratio wet deposition/total deposition in the low range. - Ratio wet deposition/total deposition varies a lot with the version of GEOS meteorological fields. - Sulfur deposition in the middle range Conclusion

22. The End

23. Ozone Surface Concentrations S1-SrefS2-S1 S3-S1S4-S1 -20 -10 -5 -2 0 2 5 10 20 ppb

24. Ozone Column S1-SrefS2-S1 S3-S1S4-S1 -15 -7 4 2 0 2 4 7 15 DU

25. N Emissions 0 0.001 0.002 0.005 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.5 1 2 5 gN/year NO x NH 3 IIASA-CLE-2000

26. S1-SrefS2-S1 S3-S1S4-S1 -5 -0.5 -0.05 -0.005 0 0.005 0.05 0.5 5 gN/m 2 /year NO x emissions

27. S1-SrefS2-S1 S3-S1S4-S1 -5 -0.5 -0.05 -0.005 0 0.005 0.05 0.5 5 gN/m 2 /year NO y deposition

28. S1-SrefS2-S1 S3-S1S4-S1 -5 -0.5 -0.05 -0.005 0 0.005 0.05 0.5 5 gN/m 2 /year NH 3 emissions

29. S1-SrefS2-S1 S3-S1S4-S1 -5 -0.5 -0.05 -0.005 0 0.005 0.05 0.5 5 gN/m 2 /year NH x deposition