1. Larval Connectivity Talk Goals 1.) INTRODUCE A NEW FLOW DATASET 2.) COMPARE WITH OLD 3.) STATISTICS... SOME WAYS OF VISUALIZING THE DATA

2. What is it again? Probabilities... Connectivity...... The fraction of larvae transported to x x y

3. Larval Connectivity... What do I want to do with this? 1.) MAKE continuous CONNECTIVITY PATTERNS (CHRIS...) 2.) MAKE point CONNECTIVITY FOR EMPIRICAL COMPARISONS (JENN...) 3.) LOOK AT behavior (THIS MODEL IS 3D) - (CROW, SARA, SATOSHI, DANIELLE) 4.) MATCH UP WITH SATELLITE SSC IMAGERY AND UNDERSTAND LARVAL survivability (ME...) 5.) FIND physical features THAT RELATE TO LARVAL SUPPLY/PRODUCTION (TIM...) 6.) SIMULATE gene flow (ME, CROW, KIM)

4. FIRST - Get a Model 1, thanks Charles Dong, UCLA m m

5. CHARLES’ 1km grid resolution SOCAL Bight nested domain 3 hourly temporal resolution 3D - 40 vertical layers LEO’S 5km grid resolution Santa B. Channel nested domain 6 hourly 2D

6. depth (m) km depth (m) km 0 Charles’, Fully 3D Leo’s, Fully 2D

7. Wind Forcing Captures actual events but unlike the old dataset this not an assimilation model

8. Source/Destination Patches 87 of them

9. Lagrangian particle tracking 2002 only so far, getting 1998 Particle time step is 1hr There is no boundary reflectance, if they hit the land they stick Longitude Lat SSH

10. Point Release, Release Timing Released on Jan. 1 Release location Released on Jan. 21 Release location 30 days later

11. Point Release, Release Timing Released on Jan. 1 Release location Released on Jan. 1 Release location 30 days later Vertical position: stay near surfaceVertical position: passive transport

12. Time (in time steps, 800 = 90 days) Temp (deg C) Depth (m)

13. Boundary Crossing 2.2% of particles sticked on masked regions Reducing the time stepping from 1 hour to 30 min does not help (2.2%) How can we avoid this? Does this change connectivity?

14. Definition of Settlement & Connectivity Settlement is defined as...... after a pre- competency time window (e.g. 10days) 1st Discrete Habitat Patch

15. Potential Source Power Connectivity (1) - JANUARY Patches No. Settlers Day 10 competent

16. Connectivity Matrixes JANUARYJUNE PLD - 30 days Competent after 10 days SOURCE DESTINATION

17. Potential Export Power Summing over the Connectivity Matrix JANUARY Potential Import Power

18. Summing over the Connectivity Matrix JUNE Potential Export Power Potential Import Power

19. Satoshi’s Results Lagrangian particle tracking

20. Identify habitat BETWEEN 20 - 60M DEPTH

25. IMPORT PROBABILITY DENSITY

26. EXPORT PROBABILITY DENSITY

27. Conclusions 1.) NEW FLOW IS BETTER THAN OLD