1. Adaptation of Scots pine provenances to changing temperatures Volker Schneck & Mirko Liesebach Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Fisheries and Forest, Institute of Forest Genetics, Waldsieversdorf

2. Scots pine provenance trials 1. IUFRO-Provenance trial 1982/84 –20 provenances from Europe, 7 sites in Germany 2. Provenance trial with eastern provenances 1990/91 –23 provenances (mainly Russia), 2 sites in Germany

3. IUFRO-Provenance trial 1982/84 - Origin of provenances

4. IUFRO-Provenance trial 1982/84 characteristics of trial sites WaldsieversdorfBensheim longitude52° 33’N49° 39’ N latitude14° 05’ E08° 31’ E altitude [m]5095 annual temperature [°C]8.210.2 annual precipitation530662 vegetation period [d]163183 precipitation veget. per. [mm]291382 aridity index29.132.8 soil typesand-brown-soilbrown-soil-gley plants/plot121 replications4 (3)4 spacing [m]1.5 x 1.5 aridity index = annual precipitation / (annual temperature+10)

5. IUFRO-Provenance trial 1982/84 characteristics of trial sites WaldsieversdorfBensheim longitude52°49° 39’ N latitude14°08° 31’ E altitude [m]5095 annual temperature [°C]8.210.2 annual precipitation530662 vegetation period [d]163183 precipitation veget. per. [mm]291382 aridity index29.132.8 soil typesand-brown-soilbrown-soil plants/plot121 replications44 spacing [m]1.5 x 1.5

6. IUFRO-Provenance trial 1982/84 mean annual temperature of provenances

7. IUFRO-Provenance trial 1982/84 aridity index of provenances aridity index = annual precipitation / (annual temperature+10)

8. IUFRO-Provenance trial 1982/84 Waldsieversdorf height at age 22

9. IUFRO-Provenance trial 1982/84 Waldsieversdorf stem volume/ha at age 22

10. IUFRO-Provenance trial 1982/84 Waldsieversdorf relationship of provenance temperature with height (age 22)

11. IUFRO-Provenance trial 1982/84 Waldsieversdorf relationship of provenance aridity index with height (age 22)

12. IUFRO-Provenance trial 1982/84 Waldsieversdorf and Bensheim dbh at age 17

13. IUFRO-Provenance trial 1982/84 – both sites relationship of provenance temperature with dbh (age 17) Waldsieversdorf Bensheim

14. IUFRO-Provenance trial 1982/86 Bensheim

15. Provenance trial 1990/91 – origin of provenances 60° 55° 50° 15°20°25° 30°35°40°50°45°55° MV BB

16. Provenance trial 1990/91 mean annual temperature of provenances BB = 8.8°C MV = 8.2 °C

17. Provenance trial 1990/91 aridity index of provenances aridity index = annual precipitation / (annual temperature+10) BB = 29.6 MV = 35.2

18. Provenance trial 1990/91 height at age 11 BB MVP

19. Provenance trial 1990/91 – Brandenburg relationship of difference between trial site and provenance temperature with height (age 11)

20. Provenance trial 1990/91 – Brandenburg relationship of difference between trial site and provenance aridity index with height (age 11)

21. Results Significant differences in height growth and volume production between the provenances. The local provenance is within the group of the well growing provenances but is not the best. Growth at the trial sites is correlated with parameters of provenance climate. Provenances from regions with temperatures up to 2.0 resp. 3.5 °C lower perform well under the warmer conditions at the trial sites. There are other reasons like differences in mean temperature and annual precipitation for growth of provenances at the trial sites (soil, distribution of precipitation, vegetation period).

22. Discussion Warming up to 2.5 degrees don‘t decrease growth of Scots pine significantly (for provenances between 47° and 58° northern latitude). For sites with lower mean temperatures than the trial site a transfer of provenances from west to east seems possible if global warming occurs. Besides temperature and precipitation other factors have an strong influence on growth of Scots pine at least in central Europe. Open questions: –appearance of new insects and pests –how does Scots pine react to extreme weather conditions (heat, drought) –What will happen with Scots pine at sites with high temperatures already today?

23. IUFRO-Provenance trial 1982/84 Waldsieversdorf Lampertheim (SW-Germany)Suprasl (NE-Poland) Thank you