1. Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Complex Systems for Systems Engineering Sarah Sheard

2. 2 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Agenda  Systems of systems  Characteristics of complex systems  Three examples of systems that are complex systems  Principles for systems engineers

3. 3 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems 4. Enterprises: Bigger than SOS (Note: Many other definitions of enterprise!) 3b. DOD FOS Family of Systems (e.g., set of systems to help track moving targets) 3a. DOD SOS (CJCSI 3170.01E) (e.g., combat aircraft: SOS cannot operate with loss of major subsystems) *Also called Maier/Sage/Cuppan 1. Typical SE SOS: (Maier* SOS) 1. Operational Independence 2. Managerial Independence 3. Evolving 4. Emergent Behavior 5. Geographic Dispersion 5. Complex adaptive systems (nonlinear, multi- agent, evolving, emergent...) 2. Typical Computer Science SOS Inter-networked Computers Systems of Systems Definitions DOD= Department of Defense SOS=System of Systems

4. 4 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Characteristics of Complex Systems  Many autonomous components cooperating because it benefits each  Emergent macro-level behavior Non-deterministic  Self-organizing (decrease in entropy)  Structure and behavior not deducible from characteristics of the parts nonlinear dynamics, chaos, far from equilibrium  Adapt to environment as evolve

5. 5 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Three Examples of Complex Systems (1 of 2) National Airspace System  Components: Airports, navigation aids, air traffic control  Emergent behavior: Approach queues, holding patterns, weather backups  Self-organization: Business/coach fare structures; back-to-back ticketing  Structure (VFR/IFR routes, hubs, financial arrangements) not deducible from airplanes and companies  Adaptation: Security, purchase of airplanes, environmental airports

6. 6 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Three Examples of Complex Systems (2 of 2)  Members (individual and company)  Handbook, certification  Boards, committees, WGs  Structure not tied to human structure  Change member fees, add member types, add regional conferences Company SE Process  Activities, artifacts  Managing to metrics  Policies, processes, procedures  Approval structures and inter-action of processes not tied to process specifics  Add various types of tailoring; reduce less effective processes

7. 7 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Principles for Systems Engineers  Learn complex systems  Mental models: Biological analogs, Operations same as development, Test in actual operations, local action/global consequences, Build on success  Consciously design environment  Encourage redundancy and competition: Improve innovation rate, Allow rice bowls  4 approaches: Top-down design, Bottom-up simulation, Analogy and mimicry, Interactive evolution

8. 8 Balance ● Growth ● Connections Third Millennium Systems Contact Information Sarah Sheard, Principal Third Millennium Systems LLC sheard@3MilSys.com (703) 757-7644 cell: (703) 994-7284 location: Northern Virginia