1. The Reality of Livestock Movement Patterns Rhonda Skaggs, Ph.D. Professor, Ag Economics & Ag Business Las Cruces, NM

2. Outline 1.Livestock in the United States 2.Movement of livestock in the United States 3.NMSU research on U.S. imports of Mexican cattle 4.General trade situation & outlook 5.Beef & cattle trade in North America

3. Livestock in the United States Cattle Sheep Hogs Interstate Livestock Movements –Shields & Mathews USDA-ERS 2003 –http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldp/jun0 3/ldpm10801/http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldp/jun0 3/ldpm10801/

15. Cattle Imports from Mexico

16. Distribution of Imported Mexican Calves 2003

18. Mexican Calves Exported to the U.S. By Month (1972-2004) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 Jan 1972 Jan 1977 Jan 1982 Jan 1987 Jan 1992 Jan 1997 Jan 2002 Head

19. NM Research on Identification of Origins & Destinations of Imported Calves Research began 2001 Interest in livestock traceability –Europe, Canada –Foot & Mouth, BSE –Terrorism –Tuberculosis Data for imported calves –Sta. Teresa / San Jerónimo

20. Sources of Data … –Origins of the calves in Mexico Certificado Zoosanitario; Unión Ganadera, J. Flores 900 observations – The “Ins” –Destinations of calves in the U.S. Unión Ganadera, bills of lading; Wm. Wallace III 4,025 observations – The “Outs” New Mexico Livestock Board; Dr. S. England 2,278 observations – New Mexico Inspection Certificates –Assistance in obtaining the data R. Tellez, NMDA

26. Research Publications “Live Cattle Exports from Mexico Into the United States: Where Do They Come From & Where Do They Go?” –Skaggs, Acuña, Torell & Southard –http://www.choicesmagazine.org/current/2004 -1-05.htmhttp://www.choicesmagazine.org/current/2004 -1-05.htm

27. Research Publications “Mexican Cattle Exports to the US: Current Perspectives” –Mitchell, Skaggs, Gorman, Crawford & Southard http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/AgOutlook/ june2001/AO282d.pdfhttp://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/AgOutlook/ june2001/AO282d.pdf

28. Trade & U.S. Agriculture Food demand in the U.S. will not grow significantly in the future –U.S. population is affluent & well fed –U.S. food market is saturated –Food demand is income & price inelastic U.S. Ag needs international markets –Earnings from exports are 20-30% of total U.S. farm income –Trade is a two-way street

29. Value of Agricultural Trade Japan, EU, Canada & Mexico are leading export markets Canada, EU & Mexico are top sources of U.S. ag imports U.S. ag exports > ag imports since 1950s U.S. is world’s largest ag importer & exporter

31. Livestock (& Beef) Trade Live animals, meats, meat products, hides, by- products, genetics are widely traded U.S. imports & exports all types of livestock products and live animals U.S. beef exports = 10% of U.S. beef production Parts of 90% of all U.S. cattle end up exported 2003 export market losses = 60,000 head/week

32. Top Markets for U.S. Beef Japan 32% Mexico 26% South Korea 24% Canada 10%

33. Total Value of U.S. Beef & Cattle Trade with Canada & Mexico $4.1 Billion (2002)

34. Total Value of U.S. – Canada Beef & Cattle Trade $2.8 Billion (2002)

35. Total Value of U.S. – Mexico Beef & Cattle Trade $1.4 Billion (2002)

36. Rhonda Skaggs, Ph.D. Professor, Agricultural Experiment Station Dept. of Ag Economics & Ag Business Box 30003 MSC 3169 New Mexico State University Las Cruces, NM 88003 Tel: 505-646-1344 or 505-646-2401 Fax: 505-646-3808 Email: rskaggs@nmsu.edu Contact Information

37. Acknowledgements New Mexico Department of Agriculture –Marketing & Development Division New Mexico Livestock Board –State Veterinarian Unión Ganadera Regional de Chihuahua Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua USDA – Economic Research Service USDA – Animal & Plant Health Inspection Service

38. My Current Research… 1.Movement of cattle and meat between the U.S. and Mexico. 2.Description of the cattle export process in Chihuahua. 3.Econometric models including Mexican cattle imports.

39. My Current Research… 4.Survey of calf exporters in Chihuahua. 5.Electronic identification systems – analysis and feasibility. 6.Development of improved bill of lading (proposed for use on U.S. side of cattle crossings).