1. PAGE # 1 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 SELECTION OF WATER QUALITY MONITORING SITES and CSU’s STARMAP by N. Scott Urquhart Department of Statistics Colorado State University Director of STARMAP

2. PAGE # 2 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 EPA’s CURRENT GUIDANCE for 305b l States and territories are encouraged to use probabilistic designs for water quality assessments and to include reports of these assessments with their Integrated Reports. t SOURCE: The Total Maximun Load (TMDL) Program, Office of Water, November 19, 2001. Memorandum concerning “2002 Integrated Water Quality Monitoring and Assessment Report Guidance”

3. PAGE # 3 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 STARMAP FUNDING u EPA l OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT l NOT FUNDED BY OFFICE OF WATER l ROUTINE (REQUIRED) DISCLAIMER: t The work reported here today was developed under the STAR Research Assistance Agreement CR-829095 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to Colorado State University. This presentation has not been formally reviewed by EPA. The views expressed here are solely those of presenter and the STARMAP, the Program he represents. EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in this presentation.

4. PAGE # 4 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 HOW SHOULD WATER QUALITY MONITORING SITES BE SELECTED? u Depends on OBJECTIVES l Evaluating the effect of a known point source t Evaluate quality above and below point source l Trying to find unidentified point source t Start from known presence of “pollutant” t Work upstream checking concentration of “pollutant” in each branch. l Characterizing all waters in some domain t Like for Clean Water Act 305b reporting t Select sites randomly n Increasingly being done by states n Endorsed by EPA’s Office of water n More generally, variable probability is possible

5. PAGE # 5 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 STATES ARE BEGINNING TO USE PROBABILITY-BASED SITE SELECTION States adopting EMAP designs States evaluating EMAP designs States considering EMAP designs Courtesy of Steve Paulsen, EPA

6. PAGE # 6 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 QUICK ILLUSTRATION u To investigate flow status of stream traces identified as intermittent: l Sampling frame: USGS/EPA National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) l 100 sites in each state the 12 states in EPA Regions 8, 9, & 10.

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8. PAGE # 8 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 Not Supporting 13% Fully Supporting 87% Traditional Targeted Monitoring Fully Supporting 13% Not Supporting 87% Probability Survey Fully Supporting 75% Not Supporting 25% Traditional Targeted Monitoring Fully Supporting 95% Not Supporting 5% Probability Survey IMPORTANCE OF EMAP-TYPE DESIGNS Condition of a State’s streams using different designs STATE B STATE A

9. PAGE # 9 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 NORTH EAST LAKES STUDIES u EMAP NORTHEAST LAKES PILOT l PROBABILITY SAMPLE OF ALL LAKES IN THE NORTHEASTERN US l SECCHI TRANSPARENCY EVALUATED (AMONG MANY RESPONSES) u GREAT AMERICAN “DIP-IN” LAKES l 5,000 PARTICIPANTS IN VARIOUS LAKE MONITORING PROGRAMS (US-WIDE) l VOLUNTEERS WERE ASKED TO EVALUATE SECCHI TRANSPARENCY IN “THEIR” LAKES BETWEEN 7/1/95 AND 7/9/95 (AND AGAIN IN 1996)

10. PAGE # 10 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 NORTH EAST LAKES STUDIES - II u ONE INFORMATION SOURCE l SAMPLE REPRESENTATIVENESS: A MUST FOR RELIABLE REGIONAL LAKE CONDITION ESTIMATES OF LAKE CONDITION t by S.A. Peterson, N. S. Urquhart, and E. B. Welsh Environmental Science and Technology 33: 1559 - 1565. (1999)

11. PAGE # 11 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 SIZE OF NORTH EAST LAKES STUDIES u EMAP NORTHEAST LAKES PILOT l 312 LAKES SAMPLED u GREAT AMERICAN “DIP-IN” LAKES l 422 LAKES REPORTED FOR NORTHEAST u POINT: THESE TWO DATA SETS ARE OF FAIRLY SIMILAR SIZE

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15. PAGE # 15 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 SECCHI DEPTH IN LAKES EVALUATED BY BOTH EMAP and “DIP-IN”

16. PAGE # 16 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 ESTIMATED CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION OF SECCHI DEPTH, EMAP AND “DIP-IN”

17. PAGE # 17 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 CONCLUSIONS u THE SHORTCOMINGS OF A CONVENIENCE COLLECTION OF SITES CANNOT BE OVERCOME BY EITHER l ABSENCE OF A PLAN TO “BIAS” THE SITUATIONS EXAMINED, or l LARGE DATA SETS t ==> SEVERELY LIMITS THE BREADTH OF ANY INFERENCES WHICH CAN BE DRAWN FROM RESAMPLING STUDIES n BOOTSTRAPPING n JACKKNIFING

18. PAGE # 18 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 A PROGRAM IN STATISTICAL SURVEY DESIGN AND ANALYSIS FOR AQUATIC RESOURCES STARMAP: THE PROGRAM AT COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY SPACE-TIME AQUATIC RESOURCES MODELING AND ANALYSIS PROGRAM

19. PAGE # 19 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND for STARMAP u Probability-based surveys of aquatic resources have a role and will be implemented u Important associated questions l How should we combine t Probability survey data with t Data from purposefully picked sites? l How can we incorporate remotely sensed information (satellite) with ground data? l Role of landscape data (GIS) is? l How can we make accurate predictions of water quality at unvisited sites, using all of above?

20. PAGE # 20 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 STARMAP’S MAJOR OBJECTIVES u TO ADVANCE THE SCIENCE OF STATISTICS TO ADDRESS SUCH QUESTIONS t t TECHNIQUES OF HIERARCHICAL SURVEY DESIGN AND ALLIED TECHNIQUES t t SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL MODELING t BAYESIAN METHODOLOGY u OP AND EXTEND THE EXPERTISE ON DESIGN AND ANALYSIS TO THE STATES AND TRIBES u TO DEVELOP AND EXTEND THE EXPERTISE ON DESIGN AND ANALYSIS TO THE STATES AND TRIBES

21. PAGE # 21 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 STARMAP’S VISION u u PERSPECTIVE: l A SEARCHING ANALYSIS OF A REAL, MODERATELY COMPLEX, DATA SET ALMOST ALWAYS GENERATES QUESTIONS WHOSE ANSWER CALLS FOR AN EXTENSION OF EXISTING STATISTICAL THEORY OR METHODOLOGY.

22. PAGE # 22 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 STARMAP PROJECTS u COMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATA SETS - JENNIFER HOETING u LOCAL ESTIMATION - JAY BREIDT u INDICATOR DEVELOPMENT - DAVE THEOBALD (CSU’S Natural Resources Ecology Lab) u OUTREACH - SCOTT URQUHART l This is why I am here

23. PAGE # 23 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 COORDINATION - EXTERNAL TO CSU/OSU CONTINUED u COLLABORATOR COMMUNITIES t SUB-STATE REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL AUTHORITIES t EPA PERSONNEL n REGIONS 8, 9 & 10 n HEADQUARTERS » OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT » OFFICE OF WATER » TRIBAL SCIENTIFIC COUNCIL n EPA LABS »…..

24. PAGE # 24 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 COORDINATION - EXTERNAL TO CSU/OSU CONTINUED 2 u COLLABORATOR COMMUNITIES t EPA PERSONNEL n … n EPA LABS » WESTERN ECOLOGY LAB - CORVALLIS » MIDWESTERN ECOLOGY LAB - DULUTH, MN » EASTERN ECOLOGY LAB » ECOSYSTEMS RESEARCH DIVISION » LAS VEGAS LAB - LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY n STATE PERSONNEL » MAINLY AT OSU, SO FAR

25. PAGE # 25 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 A CROSS-PROJECT THRUST u FLOW AND FLOW STATUS u EPA DIRECTIVES TO STATES AND TRIBES l PROBABILITY SAMPLING u OBSTACLES TO ACCURATE PROBABILITY-BASED SAMPLING

26. PAGE # 26 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 FLOW AND FLOW STATUS u FLOW - AN INDICATOR OF BASE FLOW QUANTITY u FLOW STATUS l PERENNIAL l NON-PERENNIAL u CLIENT: STATE AND TRIBAL WATER QUALITY AGENCIES l REPORTING UNDER 305b OF CLEAN WATER ACT

27. PAGE # 27 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 A MAJOR PROBLEM FOR PROBABILITY- BASED SAMPLING OF WATER BODIES l PROBABILITY-BASED SELECTION OF SITES RELIES ON A “FRAME” OR LIST OF POTENTIAL SITES l THE NATIONAL HYDROGRAPHY DATASET (NHD) - BASED ON “BLUE LINES” ON USGS MAPS IS THE ONLY PRACTICALLY AVAILABLE FRAME MATERIALS u MAJOR PROBLEM = FRAME ERRORS

28. PAGE # 28 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 FRAME ERRORS TO BE DOCUMENTED SHORTLY u WATER BODY SIZE l IMPORTANCE OF SIZE WILL BE ADDRESSED SHORTLY u FLOW STATUS -- re PERENNIAL l IDENTIFIED AS PERENNIAL, BUT NOT t WASTES EFFORT OF FIELD CREWS l IDENTIFIED AS NON-PERENNIAL, BUT REALLY IS PERENNIAL t MISSED RESOURCE t INACCURATE ASSESSMENT

29. PAGE # 29 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 EMAP-West Stream/river Length (km ± 95% CI) from Peck, et al (2002) - EMAP symposium

30. PAGE # 30 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 EMAP-West Stream/river Length (km ± 95% CI) from Peck, et al (2002) - EMAP symposium

31. PAGE # 31 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 EMAP-West Stream/river Length (km ± 95% CI) from Peck, et al (2002) - EMAP symposium

32. PAGE # 32 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION QUESTIONS and/or COMMENTS ARE WELCOME

33. PAGE # 33 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002

34. PAGE # 34 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 FUNDING SOURCE  ALL OF THE WORK REPORTED HERE TODAY was developed under the STAR Research Assistance Agreement CR- 829095 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to Colorado State University, or CR-829096 awarded to Oregon State University. These presentations have not been formally reviewed by EPA. The views expressed here are solely those of authors and the respective Programs. EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in these presentations.

35. PAGE # 35 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 THIS TALK u STARMAP l OBJECTIVES AND VISION l PROJECTS l COORDINATION u A CROSS-PROJECT THRUST l DEVELOP MODELS & METHODS TO SUPPORT t STATE & TRIBAL USE OF PROBABILITY-BASED SITE SELECTION

36. PAGE # 36 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 STARMAP’S VISION CONTINUED u u SUCH RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES WILL BECOME PROBLEMS ATTACKED BY l IN ORDER OF COMPLEXITY t t MASTERS STUDENTS t t DOCTORAL STUDENTS t t POST-DOCTORAL FELLOWS t AF t AFFILIATED FACULTY SUPERVISORS

37. PAGE # 37 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 STARMAP’S VISION CONTINUED - 2 u u THE IDENTIFICATION OF THOSE QUESTIONS REQUIRES u u A STRONG WORKING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN l THE STATISTICIAN AND l THE (SUBJECT MATTER) SCIENTIST u u STARMAP WILL FOSTER SUCH RELATIONSHIPS

38. PAGE # 38 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 STARMAP’S FUNDING ALLOCATION (ALL 12-MONTH BASIS) u DIRECTOR - 0.60 FTE u FACULTY - 0.75 FTE u GRADUATE STUDENTS - 3 FTE u POST DOCTORAL FELLOWS - 2 FTE u STAFF 1.00 FTE - 2 YEARS, ONLY u AMPLE FUNDS FOR COLLABORATION & PROFESSIONAL TRAVEL u SUBCONTRACTORS ( $185K $120K)

39. PAGE # 39 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 COORDINATION u MAJOR RESPONSIBILITY OF BOTH PROGRAM DIRECTORS l CSU/OSU - EACH DIRECTOR IS FUNDED ON THE OTHERS’ ADMIN BUDGET t INTERCHANGE VISITS n EX: STEVENS & GITELMAN AT CSU IN JANUARY n THESE JOINT CONFERENCES t FREQUENT E-MAILS & PHONE TALKS l DIRECTORS HAVE VISITED SUBCONTRACTORS

40. PAGE # 40 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 COORDINATION - AT CSU u FREQUENT COMMUNICATION AMONG ALL PI’S l SEVERAL JOINT PLANNING MEETINGS LAST FALL l SEMINAR LAST SPRING l BACK AND FORTH WITH LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY l INTERACTION WITH AQUATIC BIOLOGISTS t POFF & BLEDSOE AT CSU t STAR MEETING IN DENVER NEXT WEEK

41. PAGE # 41 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 COORDINATION - EXTERNAL TO CSU/OSU u COLLABORATOR COMMUNITIES l ESTUARINE & GREAT LAKES INDICATOR DEVELOPMENT (EaGLes) t ATTEND “ALL HANDS MEETINGS” n PRESENT INFORMATION ABOUT OUR PROGRAMS l EMAP - PERSONAL CONTACT t SOURCE OF NEW PROBLEMS n EX: ACID RAIN REPORT TO CONGRESS - TREND AT PROBABILITY & “HAND-PICKED” SITES » OPPORTUNITIES FOR PROJECTS 1 & 2

42. PAGE # 42 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 COMMENTS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF WATER BODY SIZES - SO WHAT u FOR “USE” AREA IS IMPORTANT l RECREATION l REARING HABITAT - SHRIMP TO GEESE l DOMESTIC & INDUSTRIAL WATER USERS - EVEN VOLUME u FOR PRESERVATION OF “BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY” NUMBERS ARE VERY IMPORTANT

43. PAGE # 43 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 COMMENTS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF WATER BODY SIZES - SO WHAT II u PROBABILITY-BASED SAMPLING HAS TO BALANCE NUMBER AGAINST SIZE l REGARDLESS OF WATER BODY TYPE l THIS PRECLUDES SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLING u CONSEQUENCE: VARIABLE PROBABILITY/VARIABLE DENSITY SAMPLING HAS TO BE USED

44. PAGE # 44 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 PREREQUISITE FOR ACCURATE SITE SELECTION l AN ACCURATE FRAME l SPATIALLY (REGIONAL) CONSISTENCY l CRITICAL FOR CREDIBILITY AMONG WATER RESOURCE MANAGERS u THE NEED:GOOD PREDICTORS OF l WATER BODY SIZE l PERENNIAL STATUS

45. PAGE # 45 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 PREDICTION OF WATERBODY SIZE u INITIAL EFFORT - STREAMS - MAHA l OVERCOMES LIMITATIONS OF t STRAHLER ORDER t REGIONAL INCONSISTENCIES DUE TO VARIABLE DENSITY OF “BLUE LINES” ON USGS MAPS (SEE MAP ON THE WALL) l INITIAL EFFORT: GET WATERSHED n AREA n PREDICTOR CHARACTERISTICS n GAUGED FLOW (PERHAPS ONLY “BASE FLOW”) l

46. PAGE # 46 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 PREDICTION OF PERENNIAL STATUS u IMMEDIATELY AVAILABLE DATA l EMAP WESTERN PILOT STUDY t SURVEY OF TRACES LABELED “NON-PERENNIAL” n 100 PER WESTERN STATE; DATA NOW AT CSU n STARMAP NOW COMPILING ASSOCIATED LANDSCAPE INFORMATION t SITE EVALUATION FROM SITES SELECTED ON TRACES LABELED “PERENNIAL” n ON GOING WORK IN EMAP-WEST

47. PAGE # 47 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 PREDICTION OF PERENNIAL STATUS: OTHER POTENTIAL DATA SOURCES u MAIA - ORIGINAL SAMPLING INCLUDED ALL TRACES l REGARDLESS OF PERENNIAL CLASS u OTHER SURVEYS l REGION 7 l VARIOUS STATES u OTHER SURVEYS POSSIBLE IF METHODOLOGY WORKS

48. PAGE # 48 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 EXPECTED OUTPUTS u MODELS TO INCORPORATE INTO SITE SELECTION PROGRAMS u MORE GENERALLY, STATISTICAL METHODS TO SUPPORT THOSE MODELS u A RANGE OF GIS TOOLS USEFUL FOR AQUATIC MONITORING u CONTINUED

49. PAGE # 49 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 EXPECTED OUTPUTS u... u AN EXPERIENCE BASE l FUTURE GENERATIONS OF ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICIANS t ORIENTED TOWARD AQUATIC SCIENCES

50. PAGE # 50 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 QUESTIONS ARE WELCOME

51. PAGE # 51 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 NEXT SPEAKER u JENNIFER HOETING l LEADER OF PROJECT 1 l COMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATA SETSCOMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATA SETS

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55. PAGE # 55 NWQMC NWQMC December 11, 2002 COMMENTS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF WATER BODY SIZES u INFORMATION PROVIDED APPLIES TO ALL LAKES IN THE “LOWER 48” l A SIMILAR DISTRIBUTION OCCURS IN ALL PARTS OF THE US u OTHER KINDS OF WATER BODIES l SAME KIND OF PATTERN t STREAMS & RIVERS t WETLANDS t ESTUARIES