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Lab 12 results
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1. Cars and trucks
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The number of cars and trucks increases by about 3.5 million vehicles per year, on average.
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1.b. Equation forecast using slope and intercept function estimates Slope = 3.485596; Intercept = -6757.9 Y = 3.485597 * 2020 -6757.9 Y = 283.00 The forecast is that there will be 283 million cars and trucks in the U.S. in 2020
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1.c. Trendline extension method
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1.d. Discuss confidence in forecast
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1.e. Predict with there were zero vehicles 0 = 3.485597 * X -6757.9
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1.e. Predict with there were zero vehicles 0 = 3.485597 * X -6757.9 6757.9 = 3.485597 * X
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1.e. Predict with there were zero vehicles 0 = 3.485597 * X -6757.9 6757.9 = 3.485597 * X 6757.9/ 3.485597 = X
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1.e. Predict with there were zero vehicles 0 = 3.485597 * X -6757.9 6757.9 = 3.485597 * X 6757.9/ 3.485597 = X 1938.8
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1.e. Trendline extension method
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1.f. Add historical information Ransom E. Olds began mass producing in 1902; Henry Ford started in 1914. The model predicted miserably. Apparently something fundamental changed between the early 1900s and 1970 to make automobile purchase easier.
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1.g. Forecast when 300 million vehicles 300 = 3.485597 * X -6757.9
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7057.9 = 3.485597 * X
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300 = 3.485597 * X -6757.9 7057.9 = 3.485597 * X 7057.9/ 3.485597 = X
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300 = 3.485597 * X -6757.9 7057.9 = 3.485597 * X 7057.9/ 3.485597 = X 2024.8
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1.h. Forecast number of cars and trucks in 2050 Y = 3.485597 * 2050 -6757.9 Y =387.57 The forecast is that there will be over 388 million cars and trucks in the U.S. in 2050
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2.b 2010 coal consumption, equation method Slope =.299633; intercept = -577.68 Y =.299633 * 2010 -577.68 Y = 24.582
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2.b 2010 coal consumption, trendline extension method
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2.c. Prediction when consumption equals 30 quads 30 = 0.299633 * X -577.68
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2.c. Prediction when consumption equals 30 quads 30 = 0.299633 * X -577.68 607.68 =.299633 * X
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2.c. Prediction when consumption equals 30 quads 30 = 0.299633 * X -577.68 607.68 =.328625 * X 607.68/.299633 = X 2028 = X
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2.e. Discussion of changes affecting validity of prediction
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