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Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources in the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood Alan Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental.

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Presentation on theme: "Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources in the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood Alan Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental."— Presentation transcript:

1 Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources in the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood Alan Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering for Climate and Water Resource Forecasts for the 2006 Water Year UW Climate Impacts Group October 26, 2005, Seattle

2 Presentation Outline 1. Introduction: UW Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting System 2. Water Year 2005 Assessment 3. Water Year 2006 Outlook

3 Average annual water cycle Introduction: A review of the PNW hydrologic cycle PNW Where we are now on average  soil moisture near annual low  runoff near low  nearly all water year precipitation yet to come  snow season not really underway  evaporation not a factor

4 Oct 1 ESP fcst: Summer Volumes

5 Introduction Forecast System Website

6 Experimental W. US Hydrologic Forecast System Soil Moisture Initial Condition Snowpack Initial Condition

7 Experimental W. US Hydrologic Forecast System ESP ENSO/PDO ENSO CPC Official Outlooks Coupled Forecast System CAS OCN SMLR CCA CA NSIPP/GMAO dynamical model VIC Hydrolog y Model NOAA NASA UW Multiple Seasonal Climate Forecast Data Sources

8 Hydrologic prediction using ESP NWS River Forecast Center (RFC) approach: rainfall-runoff modeling (i.e., NWS River Forecast System, Anderson, 1973 offspring of Stanford Watershed Model, Crawford & Linsley, 1966) Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) used for shorter lead predictions; increasingly used for longer lead predictions ICs Spin-upForecast obs recently observed meteorological data ensemble of met. data to generate forecast ESP forecast hydrologic state

9 targeted statistics e.g., runoff volumes monthly hydrographs spatial forecast maps

10 Presentation Outline 1. Introduction: UW Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting System 2. Water Year 2005 Assessment 3. Water Year 2006 Outlook

11 Recap WY2005, Dec. 1 hydrologic conditions

12 Recap WY2005, Jan. 1 hydrologic conditions

13 Recap WY2005, Feb. 1 hydrologic conditions

14 Recap WY2005, Mar. 1 hydrologic conditions

15 Recap WY2005, Apr. 1 hydrologic conditions

16 Recap WY2005, May. 1 hydrologic conditions

17 Recap WY2005, Jun. 1 hydrologic conditions

18 Current WY2005, Oct. 1 hydrologic conditions

19 Oct. 1 Soil Moisture Comparison THIS YEAR LAST YEAR

20 Streamflow volume forecasts UPPER HUMBOLDT RIVER BASIN Streamflow Forecasts - May 1, 2003 Forecast Pt============ Chance of Exceeding * =========== Forecast90%70%50% (Most Prob)30%10%30 Yr Avg Period(1000AF) (% AVG.)(1000AF) MARY'S R nr Deeth, Nv APR-JUL12.3 18.7 23 59 27 34 39 MAY-JUL4.5 11.3 16.0 55 21 28 29 LAMOILLE CK nr Lamoille, Nv APR-JUL13.7 17.4 20 67 23 26 30 MAY-JUL11.6 15.4 18.0 64 21 24 28 N F HUMBOLDT R at Devils Gate APR-JUL5.1 11.0 15.0 44 19.0 25 34 MAY-JUL1.7 7.2 11.0 50 14.8 20 22

21 Winter 2004-05: seasonal volume forecast for APR-SEP flow ESP median, 10 th & 90 th %-iles ESP-ENSO (warm) median OBS Forecasts made on 1 st of Month

22 Winter 2004-05: seasonal volume forecast for APR-SEP flow ESP median, 10 th & 90 th %-iles ESP-ENSO (warm) median OBS Forecasts made on 1 st of Month

23 Winter 2004-05: seasonal volume forecast for APR-SEP flow ESP median, 10 th & 90 th %-iles ESP-ENSO (warm) median OBS Forecasts made on 1 st of Month

24 Winter 2004-05: seasonal volume forecast for APR-SEP flow ESP median, 10 th & 90 th %-iles ESP-ENSO (warm) median OBS Forecasts made on 1 st of Month

25 Winter 2004-05: seasonal volume forecast for APR-SEP flow ESP median, 10 th & 90 th %-iles ESP-ENSO (warm) median OBS Forecasts made on 1 st of Month

26 Presentation Outline 1. Introduction: UW Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting System 2. Water Year 2005 Assessment 3. Water Year 2006 Outlook

27 Basin Average Water Balance Perspective Averaging water balance variables over a region can help characterize the evolution of the water year forecast distribution max 0.75 median 0.25 min spinup

28 Oct 1 ESP fcst: WY2006 Precip, Temp Columbia R. basin upstream of The Dalles, OR Precip Temp 2005 2006

29 Oct 1 ESP fcst: WY2006 SM, SWE, RO Runoff hangover from last year’s soil moisture deficit Apr-Sep % of avg ESP: 98% ENSO: 95% Soil Moist SWE 2005 2006

30 Oct 1 ESP fcst: WY2006 Precip, Temp Precip Temp 2005 2006 Puget Sound Drainage Basin 2005 2006

31 Oct 1 ESP fcst: WY2006 SM, SWE, RO Apr-Sep % of avg ESP: 98% ENSO: 96% Runoff Soil Moist SWE 2005 2006

32 Oct 1 ESP fcst: WY2006 Precip, Temp PrecipTemp 2005 2006 Yakima R. Basin near Parker, WA 2005 2006

33 Oct 1 ESP fcst: WY2006 SM, SWE, RO Apr-Sep % of avg ESP: 93% ENSO: 90% Runoff Soil Moist SWE 2005 2006

34 Oct 1 ESP fcst: WY2006 Precip, Temp Precip Temp 2005 2006 BC portion of Columbia R. Basin

35 Oct 1 ESP fcst: WY2006 SM, SWE, RO Apr-Sep % of avg ESP: 101% ENSO: 99% Runoff Soil Moist SWE 2005 2006

36 Conclusions  It’s still early in year for hydrologic forecasts, especially in an ENSO neutral year  Most PNW basins have land surface tendency for being on dry side by 3-10 percent:  exceptions: south edge of Snake R. basin, also BC  The parts of the region that receive higher rainfall (west of the Cascades) are more likely to recover from moisture deficits from last year.

37 Questions? website: www.hydro.washington.edu / forecast / westwide /

38 Seasonal Climate Prediction e.g., precipitation

39 CPC Temperature Outlook

40 CPC Precipitation Outlook

41 3/15 ESP fcst: WY2006 vs. WY1977 Precip, Temp Snake River basin

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