1. QMDA Review Session

2. Things you should remember

3. 1. Probability & Statistics

4. the Gaussian or normal distribution p(x) = exp{ - (x-x) 2 / 2  2 ) 1  (2  )  expected value variance

5. x p(x) x x+2  x-2  95% Expectation = Median = Mode = x 95% of probability within 2  of the expected value Properties of the normal distribution

6. Multivariate Distributions The Covariance Matrix, C, is very important C ij the diagonal elements give the variance of each x i  x i 2 = C ii

7. The off-diagonal elemements of C indicate whether pairs of x’s are correlated. E.g. C 12 x2x2 x1x1 x1x1 x2x2 C 12 <0 negative correlation x2x2 x1x1 x1x1 x2x2 C 12 >0 positive correlation

8. the multivariate normal distribution p(x) = (2  ) -N/2 |C x | -1/2 exp{ -1/2 (x-x) T C x -1 (x-x) } has expectation x covariance C x And is normalized to unit area

9. if y is linearly related to x, y=Mx then y=Mx (rule for means) C y = M C x M T (rule for propagating error) T hese rules work regardless of the distribution of x

10. 2. Least Squares

11. Simple Least Squares Linear relationship between data, d, and model, m d = Gm Minimize prediction error E=e T e with e=d obs -Gm m est = [G T G] -1 G T d If data are uncorrelated with variance,  d 2, then C m =  d 2 [G T G] -1

12. Least Squares with prior constraints Given uncorrelated with variance,  d 2, that satisfy a linear relationship d = Gm And prior information with variance,  m 2, that satisfy a linear relationship h = Dm The best estimate for the model parameters, m est, solves G  D d  h m = Previously, we discussed only the special case h=0 With  =  m /  d.

13. Newton’s Method for Non-Linear Least- Squares Problems Given data that satisfies a non-linear relationship d = g(m) Guess a solution m (k) with k=0 and linearize around it:  m = m-m (k) and  d = d-g(m (k) ) and  d=G  m With G ij =  g i /  m j evaluated at m (k) Then iterate, m (k+1) = m (k) +  m with  m=[G T G] -1 G T  d hoping for convergence

14. 3. Boot-straps

15. Investigate the statistics of y by creating many datasets y’ and examining their statistics each y’ is created through random sampling with replacement of the original dataset y

16. y1y2y3y4y5y6y7…yNy1y2y3y4y5y6y7…yN y’ 1 y ’ 2 y ’ 3 y ’ 4 y ’ 5 y ’ 6 y ’ 7 … y ’ N 4 3 7 11 4 1 9 … 6 N original data Random integers in the range 1-N N resampled data N 1  i y’ i Compute estimate Now repeat a gazillion times and examine the resulting distribution of estimates Example: statistics of the mean of y, given N data

17. 4. Interpolation and Splines

18. linear splines x xixi x i+1 yiyi y i+1 y in this interval y(x) = y i + (y i+1 -y i )  (x-x i )/(x i+1 -x i ) 1 st derivative discontinuous here

19. cubic splines x xixi x i+1 yiyi y i+1 y cubic a+bx+cx 2 +dx 3 in this interval a different cubic in this interval 1 st and 2 nd derivative continuous here

20. 5. Hypothesis Testing

21. The Null Hypothesis always a variant of this theme: the results of an experiment differs from the expected value only because of random variation

22. Test of Significance of Results say to 95% significance The Null Hypothesis would generate the observed result less than 5% of the time

23. Four important distributions Normal distribution Chi-squared distribution Student’s t-distribution F-distribution Distribution of  2 =  i=1 N x i 2 Distribution of x i Distribution of t = x 0 /  { N -1  i=1 N x i 2 } Distribution of F = { N -1  i=1 N x i 2 } / { M -1  i=1 M x N+i 2 }

24. 5 tests m obs = m prior when m prior and  prior are known normal distribution  obs =  prior when m prior and  prior are known chi-squared distribution m obs = m prior when m prior is known but  prior is unknown t distribution  1 obs =   obs when m 1 prior and m 2 prior are known F distribution m 1 obs = m  obs when  1 prior and   prior are unknown modified t distribution

25. 6. filters

26. g(t) =  -  t f(t-  ) h(  ) d  g k =  t  p=-  k f k-p h p g(t) =  0  f(  ) h(t-  ) d  g k =  t  p=0  f p h k-p or alternatively Filtering operation g(t)=f(t)*h(t) “convolution”

27. How to do convolution by hand x=[x 0, x 1, x 2, x 3, x 4, …] T and y=[y 0, y 1, y 2, y 3, y 4, …] T x 0, x 1, x 2, x 3, x 4, … … y 4, y 3, y 2, y 1, y 0  x0y0x0y0 Reverse on time-series, line them up as shown, and multiply rows. This is first element of x * y [x*y]2=[x*y]2= x 0, x 1, x 2, x 3, x 4, … … y 4, y 3, y 2, y 1, y 0  x 0 y 1 +x 1 y 0 Then slide, multiply rows and add to get the second element of x * y  And etc … [x*y]1=[x*y]1=

28. g0g1…gNg0g1…gN h0h1…hNh0h1…hN f 0 0 0 0 0 0 f 1 f 0 0 0 0 0 … f N … f 3 f 2 f 1 f 0 =  t  g = F h Matrix formulations of g(t)=f(t)*h(t) g0g1…gNg0g1…gN f0f1…fNf0f1…fN h 0 0 0 0 0 0 h 1 h 0 0 0 0 0 … h N … h 3 h 2 h 1 h 0 =  t  g = H f and

29. X(0) X(1) X(2) … X(N) f0f1…fNf0f1…fN A(0) A(1) A(2) … A(1) A(0) A(1) … A(2) A(1) A(0) … … A(N) A(N-1) A(N-2) … = Least-squares equation [H T H] f = H T g g = H f g0g1…gNg0g1…gN f0f1…fNf0f1…fN h 0 0 0 0 0 0 h 1 h 0 0 0 0 0 … h N … h 3 h 2 h 1 h 0 =  t  Autocorrelation of hCross-correlation of h and g

30. A i and X i Auto-correlation of a time-series, T(t) A(  ) =  -  +  T(t) T(t-  ) dt A i =  j T j T j-i Cross-correlation of two time-series T (1) (t) and T (2) (t) X(  ) =  -  +  T (1) (t) T (2) (t-  ) dt X i =  j T (1) j T (2) j-i

31. 7. fourier transforms and spectra

32. Integral transforms: C(  ) =  -  +  T(t) exp(-i  t) dt T(t) = (1/2  )  -  +  C(  ) exp(i  t) d  Discrete transforms (DFT) C k =  n=0 N-1 T n exp(-2  ikn/N ) with k=0, …, N-1 T n = N -1  k=0 N-1 C k exp(+2  ikn/N ) with n=0, …, N-1 Frequency step:  t = 2  /N Maximum (Nyquist) Frequency  max = 1/ (2  t)

33. Aliasing and cyclicity in a digital world  n+N =  n and since time and frequency play symmetrical roles in exp(-i  t) t k+N = t k

34. One FFT that you should know: FFT of a spike at t=0 is a constant C(  ) =  -  +   (t) exp(-i  t) dt = exp(0) = 1

35. Error Estimates for the DFT Assume uncorrelated, normally-distributed data, d n =T n, with variance  d 2 The matrix G in Gm=d is G nk = N -1 exp(+2  ikn/N ) The problem Gm=d is linear, so the unknowns, m k =C k, (the coefficients of the complex exponentials) are also normally-distributed. Since exponentials are orthogonal, G H G=N -1 I is diagonal and C m =  d 2 [G H G] -1 = N -1  d 2 I is diagonal, too Apportioning variance equally between real and imaginary parts of C m, each has variance  2 = N -1  d 2 /2. The spectrum s m 2 = C r m 2 + C i m 2 is the sum of two uncorrelated, normally distributed random variables and is thus   2 -distributed. The 95% value of   2 is about 5.9, so that to be significant, a peak must exceed 5.9N -1  d 2 /2

36. Convolution Theorem transform[ f(t)*g(t) ] = transform[g(t)]  transform[f(t)]

37. Power spectrum of a stationary time-series T(t) = stationary time series C(  ) =  -T/2 +T/2 T(t) exp(-i  t) dt S(  ) = lim T  T -1 |C(  )| 2 S(  ) is called the power spectral density, the spectrum normalized by the length of the time series.

38. Relationship of power spectral density to DFT To compute the Fourier transform, C(  ), you multiply the DFT coefficients, C k, by  t. So to get power spectal density T -1 |C(  )| 2 = (N  t) -1 |  t C k | 2 = (  t/N) |C k | 2 You multiply the DFT spectrum, |C k | 2, by  t/N.

39. Windowed Timeseries Fourier transform of long time-series convolved with the Fourier Transform of the windowing function is Fouier transform of windowed time-series

40. Window Functions Boxcar its Fourier transform is a sinc function which has a narrow central peak but large side lobes Hanning (Cosine) taper its Fourier transform has a somewhat wider central peak but now side lobes

41. 8. EOF’s and factor analysis

42. Samples N  M (f 1 in s 1 ) (f 2 in s 1 ) (f 3 in s 1 ) (f 1 in s 2 ) (f 2 in s 2 ) (f 3 in s 2 ) (f 1 in s 3 ) (f 2 in s 3 ) (f 3 in s 3 ) … (f 1 in s N ) (f 2 in s N ) (f 3 in s N ) (A in s 1 ) (B in s 1 ) (C in s 1 ) (A in s 2 ) (B in s 2 ) (C in s 2 ) (A in s 3 ) (B in s 3 ) (C in s 3 ) … (A in s N ) (B in s N ) (C in s N ) = (A in f 1 ) (B in f 1 ) (C in f 1 ) (A in f 2 ) (B in f 2 ) (C in f 2 ) (A in f 3 ) (B in f 3 ) (C in f 3 ) S = C F Coefficients N  M Factors M  M Representation of samples as a linear mixing of factors

43. Samples N  M (f 1 in s 1 ) (f 2 in s 1 ) (f 1 in s 2 ) (f 2 in s 2 ) (f 1 in s 3 ) (f 2 in s 3 ) … (f 1 in s N ) (f 2 in s N ) (A in s 1 ) (B in s 1 ) (C in s 1 ) (A in s 2 ) (B in s 2 ) (C in s 2 ) (A in s 3 ) (B in s 3 ) (C in s 3 ) … (A in s N ) (B in s N ) (C in s N ) = (A in f 1 ) (B in f 1 ) (C in f 1 ) (A in f 2 ) (B in f 2 ) (C in f 2 ) S  C’ F’ selected coefficients N  p selected factors p  M ignore f 3 data approximated with only most important factors p most important factors = those with the biggest coefficients

44. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) Any N  M matrix S and be written as the product of three matrices S = U  V T where U is N  N and satisfies U T U = UU T V is M  M and satisfies V T V = VV T and  is an N  M diagonal matrix of singular values, i

45. SVD decomposition of S S = U  V T write as S = U  V T = [U  ] [V T ] = C F So the coefficients are C = U  and the factors are F = V T The factors with the biggest i ’s are the most important

46. Transformations of Factors If you chose the p most important factors, they define both a subspace in which the samples must lie, and a set of coordinate axes of that subspace. The choice of axes is not unique, and could be changed through a transformation, T F new = T F old A requirement is that T -1 exists, else F new will not span the same subspace as F old S = C F = C I F = (C T -1 ) (T F)= C new F new So you could try to implement the desirable factors by designing an appropriate transformation matrix, T

47. 9. Metropolis Algorithm and Simulated Annealing

48. Metropolis Algorithm a method to generate a vector x of realizations of the distribution p(x)

49. The process is iterative start with an x, say x (i) then randomly generate another x in its neighborhood, say x (i+1), using a distribution Q(x (i+1) |x (i) ) then test whether you will accept the new x (i+1) if it passes, you append x (i+1) to the vector x that you are accumulating if it fails, then you append x (i)

50. a reasonable choice for Q(x (i+1) |x (i) ) normal distribution with mean=x (i) and  x 2 that quantifies the sense of neighborhood The acceptance test is as follows first compute the quantify: If a>1 always accept x (i+1) If a<1 accept x (i+1) with a probability of a and accept x (i) with a probability of 1-a p(x (i+1) ) Q(x (i) |x (i+1) ) p(x (i) ) Q(x (i+1) |x (i) ) a =

51. Simulated Annealing Application of Metropolis to Non- linear optimization find m that minimizes E(m)=e T e where e = d obs -g(m)

52. Based on using the Boltzman distribution for p(x) in the Metropolis Algorithm p(x) = exp{-E(m)/T} where temperature, T, is slowly decreased during the iterations

53. 10. Some final words

54. Start Simple ! Examine a small subset of your data and looking them over carefully Build processing scripts incrementally, checking intermediated results at each stage Make lots of plots and look them over carefully Do reality checks