2. Modelling Campaign Effects in the 2005 British Election Study Harold Clarke, David Sanders, Marianne Stewart and Paul Whiteley The 2005 British Election Study www.essex.ac.uk/bes BES 2005

3. The Official Campaign Study  The official campaign started on April 6 th 2005 after the election date was announced  It continued until polling day on May 5 th 2005  The BES conducted daily internet surveys averaging approximately 210 respondents per day during this period.  These surveys represented the second wave of a panel (overall N=7794) – the first wave was conducted before the election was announced

4. The Probability of Voting Scale (Please think of a scale that runs from 0 to 10, where 0 means very unlikely and 10 means very likely, how likely is it that you will vote in the general election?)

5. Trends in the Probability of Voting in the Official Campaign

6. Campaign Exchanges, 21 st April  ‘Crime has gone down by 30 per cent since 1997 and concern about loutish behaviour has begun to fall’ (Tony Blair, Labour’s Press conference, 21 st April)  ‘Violent crime has almost doubled, and there are now a million violent crimes committed every year. I know: my wife Sandra and my daughter Larissa have both been mugged’ (Conservative Leader, Michael Howard’s speech, 21 st April)  ‘Mother Stabbed on walk with Young Son’ (Guardian Headline, April 22 nd)

7. Campaign Exchanges, 22nd April  ‘I said at the manifesto launch that I would deal with the issue of asylum and immigration during this campaign… It is precisely because we have been working hard at it that over the past few years asylum claims have fallen in Britain faster than anywhere else in Europe’ (Tony Blair’s speech April 22 nd )  ‘If you’re unhappy about high taxes, uncontrolled immigration, rising crime and dirty hospitals, then why reward Mr Blair’s Labour party with your vote? Quite frankly, Tony Blair’s lost the plot. He’s talked a lot and failed to deliver. He’s told lies to win elections. And he’s only taken a stand on one thing in the last eight years – taking Britain to war. And he couldn’t even tell the truth about that’ (Michael Howard’s speech April 23 rd )

8. Voter Reactions to the Leaders TV Debate on April 28 th (seen by 28 per cent of respondents)

9. The voting turnout model  Vi = pi (B) - Ci + Di  Where:  Vi is the probability of respondent i voting  pi is respondent i’s perceptions of their own pivotality  B are the collective benefits obtained from voting  Ci are the costs of voting  Di is i’s sense of civic duty to vote  (see Riker and Ordeshook, 1968)

10. Perceptions of Pivotality On a scale from 0 to 10, where 10 means very unlikely and 0 means very likely, how likely is it that Labour will win the election in your local constituency?

11. Collective Benefits On a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means strongly dislike and 10 means strongly like, how do you feel about the Labour party?

12. Collective Benefits On a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means strongly dislike and 10 means strongly like, how do you feel about the Conservative party?

13. Collective Benefits On a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means strongly dislike and 10 means strongly like, how do you feel about the Liberal Democrats?

14. Collective Benefits Scale – difference between parties

15. Duty Indicator I ‘I feel a sense of satisfaction when I vote’

16. Duty Indicator II ‘I would be seriously neglecting my duty as a citizen if I didn’t vote’

17. Turnout Model – pooled data Predictor Variables Pivotality * Collective Benefits 0.005*** (8.5) Perceptions of Duty 0.82*** (39.6) Male 0.35*** (5.3) Age 0.02*** (10.9) Ethnic minority status -1.26*** (4.5) Educational Attainment 0.07*** (3.5) Household Income 0.07*** (6.7) R square 0.42

18. Multi-level Model of Campaigning Setup  Individual Level Model  Yij = β0j + β1j X1ij + β2j X2ij + …. + βkj Xkij + r ij  Where:  Yij is the dependent variable  βij are the individual level model coefficients  X1ij are the individual level predictor variables  r ij is an individual level error term  Aggregate Level Model  βij = γq0 + γq1 W1j + γq2 W2j + γq3 W3j …. + γq4 Wsj + uqj  Where:  β0j is the intercept from the individual level model  β1j is the slope coefficient of variable X1 in the individual level model  γqj are the coefficients of the aggregate level covariates  Wij are the aggregate level covariates  uqj is an aggregate level error term

19. Trends in the Attention to Politics Variable

20. Trends in the Perceptions of Duty Variable

21. Multi-Level Random Intercept Turnout Model with Aggregate Covariates Multi-level Model Mean Pivotality * Collective Benefits -0.01 (0.7) --- Mean Perceptions of Duty -0.46* (1.8) -0.57** (2.0) Mean Attention to Politics 0.38* (1.7) 0.39* (1.8) Time Trend 0.002 (1.0) --- Pivotality * Collective Benefits 0.005*** (8.5) 0.005** (8.4) Perceptions of Duty 0.82*** (39.4) 0.82*** (39.5) Male 0.35*** (5.3) 0.35*** (5.4) Age 0.02*** (10.9) 0.02*** (10.9) Ethnic minority status -1.26*** (4.5) -1.30*** (4.5) Educational Attainment 0.07*** (3.5) 0.07** (3.6) Household Income 0.07*** (6.6) 0.07*** (6.7) R square 0.42

22. Conclusions  The individual’s sense of duty to vote dominates a rational choice model of turnout  Contextual variables relating to the campaign influence individual turnout in this model  An increase in people’s attention to politics arising from the election campaign stimulates their turnout  But a contextual increase in the duty to vote variable tends to inhibit individual turnout