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Ambac Financial Group, Inc. Adding diversity to our financial sector holdings
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Current Finance Sector Holdings Washington Mutual Citigroup Bank of America Alliance Capital Fannie Mae
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Investment Thesis Low interest rates Flat yield curve Infrastructure deficit Continued stress on State and Local Budgets Lead to continued strength in debt markets
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Strategy for the Sector Trade Fannie Mae for Ambac
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Why Buy Ambac Financial Group? A history of solid performance Double digit ROE and EPS growth Good valuations International growth opportunities
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Historical Performance
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Risk Return Comparison ABKACBACCFNMWM Historical Beta0.481.290.591.310.220.03 Return / STD Dev0.210.100.250.080.050.19 Annualized Return19%10%20%7%5%27%
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Ambac Financials Business Financial Guaranty Public finance Structured finance International finance Financial Services Interest rate swaps Total return swaps Funding conduits
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Financial Guaranty Business Net par in billions of dollars 12/2004
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Financial Guaranty Revenue Billions of dollars 2004
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Total Revenue Millions of dollars
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Competition for Ambac Only three players globally High barriers to entry Ambac is a strong competitor 28% market share in 2003 Highest gross par written for 2004 History of consolidation if market crowds
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Indicators of Success Industry leading 15% ROE average over the last 10 years Double digit earnings growth for 12 years running Effective underwriting Efficient operations
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Combined Expense Ratio
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Loss Ratio
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Income Projections by Business Historic CAGR = 19%
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Valuation Methods Used Price to book value Price to earnings value Excess return dividend model Current Price $72.39
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Recommendations Purchase Ambac Financial Group Sell Fannie Mae
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What’s Wrong With Fannie No audited financial statements Effect of regulatory changes on future revenues is unknowable Currently running without CEO and CFO Too difficult to understand given high manager turnover And… FNM does not meet our investment policy requirements.
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Investment Objective 1 “Security selection is to be made on the basis of a supportive fundamental analysis of a stock.” Impossible to be thorough without financial statements
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Investment Objective 2 “Maintain a risk level comparable to the S&P 500” Company specific risks are significantly greater than other members of the S&P 500.
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Investment Objective 3 “The investment guidelines are based on an investment horizon generally greater than 1 year and consistent with a normal market cycle of approximately 5 to 7 years.” Market cycle has shifted
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Suggested Trade TickerQuantityPriceTotal SellFNM57 $ 59 $ 3,372 BuyABK50 $ 72 $ 3,620
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