1. INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT Lecture – 4

2. Miscellaneous definitions/concepts  Goals:  Objectives:  Strategies:  Criteria:  Indicators:  Scenarios:  Constraints: Measures performance of formulated strategies in terms of stated objectives Broad, qualitative statements about what to be achieved or what problem is to be solved What should be achieved to reach a goal Individual or combination of measures identified to accomplish objectives (infrastructural, management instrument, institutional arrangements) Criteria translated into indicators; represent the behavior or performance of the systems under consideration in more general terms Changes beyond the control of managers Pose limitations to possible measures and solutions

3.  With and Without Project  Triggers - not same as ‘now’ and ‘future’ or ‘before’ and ‘after’ - ‘Problem’ or an ‘undesirable event’ - meeting unsatisfied demands - developing under-utilized resources - achieving national development objectives -other planning efforts (landuse, energy or agricultural development)

4. Conceptual Framework for Analysis: Planning Steps Step-1: Analysis of problems and identification of possible measures Step-2: Specification of objectives and criteria Step-3: Delineation of analysis conditions Step-4: Analysis of possible measures and promising strategies Step-5: Implementation assessment of selected strategies Step-6: Evaluation of selected strategies Step-7: Presentation of results

6. Step-1: Analysis of problems and identification of possible measures Problem analysis should cover all possible problems not only in the present situation as well as in the future. e.g. demand and supply balances should be made if relevant; costs and effects of remedial measures should be quantified These enable analysts and decision makers to rank problems and issues and to specify priority questions for the analysis. All possible measures need to be identified. Stakeholders involved in and affected by ‘plan’ to be identified An institutional analysis should be incorporated; poor governance is one of the main reasons for the rapid deterioration of WRS all over the world.

7. Step-1: Analysis of problems and identification of possible measures Operationally, two steps can be distinguished:  Identification and classification of all possible present and future problems  Quantification of the problems, including first screening of possible measures with respect to their costs and effectiveness.

8. Step-2: Specification of objectives and criteria  Overall objective for WRM generally is formulated as: “ to optimize the benefits of water resources utilization for the society as a whole ”  General objectives have to be made more specific (related to special user or interest groups) for the formulation and evaluation of the plan. “ protect and preserve the ecosystem of wetlands “ “ improve social and economic conditions of subsistence farmers ” “ provide all people with potable water, provide water for industrial development, use water efficiently and sustainably “

9. Step-2: Specification of objectives and criteria  For the purpose of analysis, these objectives may be translated in even more specific analysis objectives, leading to formulation of specific criteria and indicators. Efficiency of water use ----reduce system loss reduce per capita demand increase irrigation efficiency Economic efficiency --------raise income per m3 or raise income from industries Maintain wetland ecosystem--maintain the identified species diversity which existed in 20xx. Improve water quality -----achieve at least the following conc. 5 mg/l DO; pH greater than 6 and less than 8, etc.

10. Characteristics of criteria Should be:  substantial – reflect an essential part of objective  factual - facts rather than subjective impression  plausible- changes in indicators attributed to project  obtainable- data can be collected  independent - same indicator normally not used for more than one objective Can be of following two broad types: qualitative:good/bad, high/low, positive/negative quantitative: physical or economic quantities (changes in gwl, conc.; tonnes of agr.output) Valued: monetary terms (NPV, IRR) non-valued: not in monetary terms (no of people affected by malnutrition, people displaced) Step-2: Specification of objectives and criteria

11. Characteristics of criteria (& indicators) Accuracy of estimates may affect the choice of a strategy Different criteria may be used during different phases of the analysis Structuring criteria in the beginning of a planning study is useful Step-2: Specification of objectives and criteria

12. Important notes on criteria (& indicators) A management strategy can result in changes in physical, chemical, and biological indicators, in turn can have impacts on various aspects in different sub-regions, as wells as outside the given region Costs to produce outputs plus any damages from such production represent the direct costs of the strategy. Indirect benefits are monetary benefits resulting from changes in activities elsewhere, associated indirectly with activities of the region Step-2: Specification of objectives and criteria A very important consideration with respect to economic effects is their distribution. Who benefits? Who pays? In what form? Over what periods?

13. Important notes on criteria (& indicators) Often important is to determine distribution of benefits and costs Consideration of equity – not only distribution of economic and financial benefits and costs, but as well to the access of water and public health conditions for specific groups of the society Strategy needs to be administratively flexible so that it can respond to changing conditions Step-2: Specification of objectives and criteria

14. Scenarios economic, demographic, political, technological developments uncertainty – low, middle or high dev. expectation? formulate scenarios during preparatory phase Step-3: Delineation of analysis conditions (complete set of conditions and assumptions under which an analysis is undertaken)

15. Step-3: Delineation of analysis conditions (complete set of conditions and assumptions under which an analysis is undertaken) Time horizons  Kinds of measures considered (major dams vs small irrigation works)  Is planning a continuing exercise?  Rate of expected developments?  Making the effort to look ahead more than (say) 15 to 20 years (one generation) is often not the effort  Discounting of future costs and benefits in present values hardly influence the outcome of economic and financial analysis… so plan should be as flexible as possible.  Certain actions may have short-term benefits, but long term negative impacts. When expressed in monetary terms but accounted to present values, they carry little weight in the evaluation of strategies.

16. Step-3: Delineation of analysis conditions (complete set of conditions and assumptions under which an analysis is undertaken) Areal boundaries  Natural system boundaries within which the natural system phenomena, such as water circulation, rainfall- runoff relations and erosion are considered (e.g. river basins, coastal area)  Activity boundaries within which human activities are considered and analyzed with respect to their resource utilization (e.g. supply area of water supply system, which may extend beyond the river basin or groundwater aquifer area from which the water is drawn)  Juridical boundaries confine the area where certain institutions and legal arrangements are effective (e.g. municipalities, regional authorities)

17. Discount rate and base year Hydrologic and meteorologic conditions  Important for both demand and supply characteristics Step-3: Delineation of analysis conditions (complete set of conditions and assumptions under which an analysis is undertaken)

18. (i) Analyzing human and economic activities (activity analysis) – demand-oriented measures (ii) Analyzing natural systems – supply-oriented measures (iii) Formulating strategies (combination of individual measures from (i) and (ii)) (iv) Specifying cases for analysis (combination of strategies and scenarios) Step-4: Analysis of possible measures and promising strategies Demand projections (for each specified scenario) demographic forecasting for population and migration patterns projection of economic activities projections and analysis of demands for goods and services