1. + Class 17: Lomborg P. Brian Fisher CofC: POLS 405 Spring 2010

2. + Vid Lomborg, “Our Priorities For Saving the World” (17m)Our Priorities For Saving the World

3. + Lomborg’s Arguments on Temperature Increase Global Mean Temp is projected to increase 4.7°C by 2100; however, no one lives at this temperature. Lomborg: True, there will be more heat deaths from GCC, but there will also be fewer cold deaths (more people die from cold than heat). Many deaths are from heat-island effects in cities, and we can alleviate them, by planting more trees (to create more moisture) and by creating more reflective surfaces

4. + Lomborg on Kyoto Temperature decrease from Kyoto measures would be 0.1°F by 2050 and 0.3°F by 2100—this is insignificant Without a Post-Kyoto agreement, the effects from the 2008- 2012 would only be reduce temp for 7 days. Costs: could be as high as $180b/yr (based on 2008 data) or 0.5% global GDP Lomborg: World will get more efficient as technology increases (e.g. In US, avg car has “improved its mileage by 67% since 1973.”

5. + CAFE Standards 1978-2006

6. + Lomborg’s Costs of GCC Cutting carbon dioxide costs about $20 per ton and it only does $2 worth of good. McKinnsey Cost Abatement: They concluded that we could stabilize at 450ppm at zero net cost. At 450ppm, peaking now, would likely result in temp increase of less than 3°C, and most likely about 2.5°C Lomborg est that to stabilize at 2.7°C would require $84t. Benefits wouldn’t outpace costs until 2250.

7. + Lomborg’s Proposal 1. Massive investments in R&D Commit 0.05% of GDP Should be enough to keep temp from increasing beyond 5°F (from today). 2. Avoid emission cuts—waste of $$ b/c “global warming damages run about 1% GDP, while cost is at 2% GDP Stern: Cost is 1% GDP while benefits are 20% (giving increasing costs of inaction)

9. + Evidence suggests… 1. Understanding of GCC is shaped by exaggerated accounts by media 2. we are overly obsessed with regulating CO2—we should consider the positive effects from increased warming 3. GCC is not the only issue we need to tackle. There are other more important priorities.

10. + Other Issues and Facts Every year… 4m die from malnutrition $12b could halve the deaths 3m from HIV/AIDS 2.5m from air pollution 2m from lack of clean drinking water 1m from malaria $13b would halve the # of deaths.

11. + Global Priority List from Lomborg’s Copenhagen Consesus

12. + Millennium Development Goals Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Goal 5: Improve maternal health Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development