1. Modeling and Validation Victor R. Basili University of Maryland 27 September 1999

2. The Software Development Problem Problem: Build and evolve “no surprise” software for ever- expanding set of customers and applications Need: Gain intellectual control over software development Standard Solution: build models to encapsulate knowledge validate and elaborate the models via systematic observation, experimentation, and analysis

3. The Nature of the Software Discipline The Software Discipline is a synthetic science Software not visible SE is basically first-article development, not manufacturing Expectation for rapid change

4. Models Needed to Answer Questions What is the appropriate process for developing a system with a specific set of properties in a specific environment? What kinds of architectures are appropriate for particular types of functional change? Requires Models of: Software property tradeoffs Requirements and design decision rationales Decision making under uncertainty Human-computer tasks and collaborations Architectures Domains and product lines

5. Types of Software Models Product models Descriptions: requirements, architecture, design Properties: performance, reliability, usability, portability Process models Descriptions: activity networks, simulations, strategies (waterfall, evolutionary, spiral, incremental) Properties: cost, schedule, staffing levels, defect introduction and elimination Interested in relationships such as the cause effect relationship between process and products

6. Have Built Many Models Processes spiral incremental development, test techniques Products libraries for applications, generic architectures Resources local cost models, resource allocation models Changes and Defects defect prediction models, application specific defect types Quality reliability, ease of change models Product Progress actual vs. expected product size over time

7. Using Many Formalisms Mathematics functions, state machines, algebras, abstract data types Empirical models regression analysis, neural networks, pattern recognition Dynamic Models Petri nets, event simulators, continuous simulators Executable and non-executable notations programming languages, specification languages (Z, VDM)

8. Allowing Us to Characterize Describe/differentiate software processes and products Understand Explain associations/dependencies between processes and products Discover causal relationships Evaluate Assess the achievement of quality goals Assess the impact of technology on products Predict Estimate expected product quality and process resource consumption Motivate Describe what’s needed to control and manage software

9. Laboratories Needed to Validate Models Models form the basis of the discipline But they are hypotheses embedded in the learning cycle of observation, model building, and experimentation Need laboratories for observation and experimentation Laboratories where practitioners build software systems - observe them working in their environment - identify the real problems

10. The Laboratory Environment Strengths Symbiotic relationship between research and practice Practitioner need to control/manipulate project solutions based on empirical evidence Researcher need to experiment/validate theories Difficulties short term needs (practice) vs. long term goals (research) accessing and collecting data comparative studies, repeatability Need to solve the problem of creating effective laboratories

11. Conclusion Question: How do we build “no surprise” software? Requires: a software discipline that builds models to encapsulate knowledge based upon observation learns by validating the models via analysis and experimentation Assumes: collaboration between researcher and practitioner effective laboratories the kind of support that will allow this to happen