1. Building A Weather-Ready Nation Ken Graham Meteorologist-in-Charge WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge Kenneth.Graham@noaa.gov 985-649-0429 x4

2. Our First Building: U.S. Custom’s House on Canal St. November 1871 through March 1915 2

3. 3 Happy 141 th Birthday National Weather Service New Orleans

4. 4 Our Second Building: 600 Camp St. U.S. Post Office March 1915 through December 1961

5. National Weather Service Doppler Radar An Eye On The Storms!

6. Aviation Forecasts – Safety in the Sky!

7. Upper Air Observations - Our balloons can reach 100,000 feet!

8. 8 Critical Forecasts

9. Fire Weather Forecasts

10. 10 River Forecasts and Warnings

11. Space Weather 11

12. Tsunami Damage 12 Photo by Ken Graham (National Weather Service)

13. Hurricane Hurricane Katrina – August 2005

14. Storm Surge 14

15. NWSChat

16. Outreach and Education 16

17. What is a Weather-Ready Nation? A society that is prepared for and can respond to high impact, weather-dependent events

18. …Incident Support Weather Impacts What You Do!

19. Decision Support

20. Why A Weather-Ready Nation? Ike River Flooding Wildfires 2008 Wildfires Tornadoes Drought 2009 2010 DWH

21. 2011 – Groundhog Day Blizzard Impacted several central, northern, northeastern states Brought Chicago to a standstill $1.8 billion in damages 36 deaths

22. 2011 – Tornado Outbreaks 5 outbreaks across central/southern/southeast states Caused $24 billion in total damage and 545 deaths Impacted several large, metropolitan areas EF-5s in MO, MS, AL, and TN

23. 2011 – Drought and Wildfires Major impacts across TX, OK, NM, AZ, KS, AR, and LA 2,000 homes and 4,000 other structures lost Over $9 billion in total losses so far Losses expected to rise as the event continues

24. 2011 – River Flooding Record river flooding on the Mississippi River Additional flooding in the upper midwest Up to $6 billion in damage At least 7 deaths

25. 2011 – Hurricane Irene Landfall over NC and moved northward along the coast Major flooding in the Northeast due to heavy rains Over $7 billion in damages At least 45 deaths

27. Weather-Ready Nation Vision Set forward 6 goals seeking to improve services within the various earth and atmospheric sciences Implement the Weather-Ready Nation Plan by utilizing pilot projects Build new partnerships and strengthen existing partnerships with the media, private sector weather and climate vendors, researchers and academia, other NOAA agencies, and “decision makers” on the federal, state, and local levels

28. Pilot Projects WFO Washington/Baltimore Decision support in an urban region WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA Decision Support in a coastal region Fort Worth, TX Regional Operations Center Decision Support at the regional level Silver Spring NWS Operations Center Decision support at the national level WFO Tampa, FL Integrated Environmental Services WFO Charleston, WV Mesoscale Science State College, PA WFO/River Forecast Center Enhanced Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Boulder, CO Environmental Information Systems and Aviation Research Monterey, CA Emerging and Collaborative Service Sector: Golden Triangle Expansion

29. 29 We Continue to Focus on the Mission! Mission: To Protect Lives and Property Where Science Impacts Decisions and Decisions Save Lives! Photo by Ken Graham (National Weather Service)

30. Deploying to Incident Command 30

31. Deploying to Incident Command (Command Staff Briefings) 31

32. Deploying to Incident Command (All-Hands Briefings) 32

33. Emergency Response Desk 33

34. Mission Decision Support Services (Warnings and Forecasts) 34

35. Aviation Weather Briefings Operations were heavily dependent on weather decision support Weather was the GO/NO GO factor on a daily basis beginning at the 0600 briefing 35

36. Aviation Decision Support –Low level dispersion flights (100 to 1000 foot winds) –2 nd level spotter flights (500 to 1500 feet) –Mid-level reconnaissance flights (1500 to 5000 feet) –High-level intelligence flights (5000 – 45000 feet/satellite) –Emergency Terminal Forecasts for non-routine locations NASA Stennis Airport (Staging Area) and Terrebonne-Houma Regional Airport (Incident Command) –Presidential Flight Support 36

37. Intelligence Gathering 37 WFO New Orleans prepared a Daily Over-Flight Forecast to aid in satellite imaging data quality and high altitude flights

38. In-Situ Burns - Fire Weather/Marine Not your typical wildfire or prescribed burn Critical operating levels based on wind direction, wind speed, seas, wave steepness, swells, mixing height, and thunderstorms Main motivation for the hourly spot forecasts 38

39. Marine Support 39 Many vessels in tight operations Burns Boom deployment Search and rescue Skimming Tides

40. Heat Stress Most event related injuries/illness heat stress related (International Response) –~ 40% of all reportable injuries. Critical factor on the beach –40-20 rule and 20-40 rule –No Tyvek covering 40 minutes each hour, 20 minutes of supervised rest in a tent. –Full Tyvek protection 20 minutes work each hour, 40 minutes of supervised rest in a tent. 40

41. Tropical Storm Bonnie –July 23-25, 2010 Tropical Depression Five –August 10-11, 2010 –Direct threats to the area of operations –Prompted 3 day shut-downs –Met 15% criteria 41 Tropical Threats

42. Severe Weather Surveillance From April 22 – Oct 09 – 22 Tornado Warnings – 112 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings – 358 Special Marine Warnings – 26 Flood/Flash Flood Warnings 42 518 critical warnings during event

43. Clear Weather Forecasting Operational need for calm seas, low winds, and few thunderstorms – Around July 8 th, we found a week long window “We think this weather presents a significant opportunity for us to accelerate the process of capping – shutting down the well from the top and increasing the prospects for being able to kill the well from below through the relief wells” – ADM Thad Allen (ret) “Weather Windows”

44. 44 Media Interview Coordination Media interviews for oil, hurricanes, and during real time tropical systems We coordinated messages through talking points and huddles through out each day

45. Simultaneous Incident Responses Mar 30 (pre-spill): Denham Springs Petroleum Warehouse Fire July 30: Mud Lake in Barataria Bay pipeline leak Sep 2: Another Rig explosion south of Cameron, LA Aug 12: Paincourtville, Assumption Parish, LA gas leak (108 spots issued) Aug 9: New Orleans East train derailment – 19 cars involved

46. WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: Decision Support in a Coastal Area 2,897,606 people living in the forecast area with most people living within 50 miles of the coast and around Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas Select Strategic Assets: LA Offshore Oil PortStennis-Space Center Federal CityKeesler Air Force Base Waterford III Nuclear PlantNorthrup-Grumman River Bend Nuclear PlantMississippi River

47. WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: Decision Support in a Coastal Area Challenges Over 7,500 miles of coastline subject to an annual threat of land-falling hurricanes Thousands of miles of navigable waterways subject to both high and low water threats Severe weather can occur year-round Early, late, or extreme freezes can adversely affect citrus and berry crops Above or below normal river flows can significantly impact the seafood industry - especially crawfish and oyster production

48. WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: Decision Support in a Coastal Area A few things we learned during DWH: Some agencies have not included the NWS in response plans Routine forecast elements and precision are not always sufficient Local expertise is invaluable when dealing with a large scale response and an intricate coastline

49. WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: Decision Support in a Coastal Area Goal 1: Ensure WFO LIX is the first call for all weather and water support for all environmental disasters in SE LA and coastal MS Partner Requirement Services Understanding Your Thresholds/Trigger Points

50. WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: Decision Support in a Coastal Area Goal 2: 2.5 km Grids Tablets/Smart Phones (Apps.) Decision Maker Tools

51. WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: Decision Support in a Coastal Area Goal 3: Training the way we fight, not just a book (exercises) Certification in more than just weather

52. WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: Decision Support in a Coastal Area Goal 4: Deployment Criteria/Warm Zone Briefings

53. Significant Weather Emergency Response Vehicle (SWERV) 53

54. WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: Decision Support in a Coastal Area Goal 5: Getting information out 5-Day Track Forecast cone and Watch/Warning 700Mhz

55. WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge: Decision Support in a Coastal Area Example: Mile Marker Forecasts on the Mississippi River Impact Based Forecast Spot Forecast at the Scene (wreck, spill, incident)

56. NWS Board June 2008NWS IM Services 56 Marine Forecasts – Winds, waves, weather, and tidal flooding issues from the coast out 60 nautical miles Photo by Ken Graham (National Weather Service)

58. An App for That?

59. 59 Total Snowfall (in) Clean up Costs (in $ Millions)

60. 60 Total Snowfall (in) Days of Cleanup

61. 61 Total Snowfall (in) Number Stranded Schoolchildren

62. 62 Timing of this storm was CRITICAL !!! Gary Occurred During a WEEKEND Chestnut Occurred on the FIRST DAY of the WORKWEEK at Rush Hour.

63. 63 Rush hour

64. National Weather Service Decision Support BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill April 20, 2010 through January 15, 2011 Knowing the Impacts Knowing Your Trigger Points ***Where Science Impacts Decisions and Decisions Save Lives***

65. Building Strong Relationships We can’t do it alone!

66. Contact Kenneth.Graham@noaa.gov 985-649-0429 x 4