1. Mgr. Jiri Preis The University of West Bohemia in Plzen, the Czech Republic jiri.preis@volny.cz

3. „Geographical Attributes of HIV/AIDS Pandemic: the Collapse in the Endangered Regions, Threats for Central and Eastern Europe“ To discuss economic, cultural, social factors influencing spread HIV To analyze spatial and structural features of pandemic (comparison rural-urban areas, border inland areas…) To generate possible scenarios in Central and Eastern Europe An analysis of prevention programs fighting HIV/AIDS

4. Why „The Geography of HIV/AIDS“? Nothing new „in the west“, but very new „in the east“ Czech herritage from the last century Central and Eastern Europe – 2nd most endangered region in the world

5. HIV prevalence in SE Asia and CE Europe after 2000 20022004 Number of infected (mil) Adults (15-49) prevalence (%) Number of infected (mil) Adults (15-49) prevalence (%) South-East Asia 7,2 0,4 (0,2-0,6) 8,2 0,4 (0,3-0,6) Central/Eastern Europe 1,0 0,6 (0,4-0,8) 1,4 0,8 (0,6-1,4) Preis according to Marais (2004)

6. Structure of this project Part 1 – „What is really happening in the world“ Discussion of following factors will be presented: 1.1. Economic factors 1.2. Political factors 1.3. Cultural and social factors 1.4. Spatial and structural factors

7. 1.1. Economic factors HIV/AIDS significantly influence economic development and GNP Some CE Europe countries with fragile economy could be influenced in future

8. 1.2. Political factors Civil war in Uganda helped to difuse HIV Should we be afraid of what will HIV prevalence look like in 3-5 years in for example Bosnia and Herzegovina and other the Balcan countries? „Desintegration of the Soviet state appears to have set the stage for the more rapid spread of the disease.“ (Moran 2005)

9. 1.3. Cultural and social factors Culture can influence the spread – typical examples from Africa (polygamy, „brother-in- law“ rule, FGM) is there anything culturally specific in CE Europe, what would support difusion of virus?

10. 1.4. Spatial and structural factors Comparison of rural and urban areas/communities Gender factor (men – women) Age and social groups Uganda of 1990s: infection is connected with wealthy/mobile/educated people Uganda of 1995s: spread is much more significant among rural/poor people Russia – it is largely urban phenomenon

11. Rural area of Iganga, Uganda; January 2005

12. Structure of this project Part 2 – „Central and Eastern Europe in danger: what can we expect?“ Following tasks will be processed in this part 2.1. meaningfull questionnaire and a net of respondents will be made 2.2.Target area (including case studies countries) will be defined 2.3. Fieldwork in target countries will be done and primary data will be gathered 2.4. Data will be analysed and processed 2.5.Possible scenarios for targeted group of countries will be suggested

13. Succesful/unsuccesful prevention programs Help to realize what is effective in fighting AIDS, especcialy in CE Europe „The Czech society has stopped being worried the disease and has lost the alert.“ Dr. Bruckova, National Program of HIV/AIDS prevention

14. „Whole world has been mobilized to help Asian countries that were terribly hit by tsunami in December 2004. AIDS annualy kills as many people as 12 these tsunamis… How do we respond?“ dr. Jesse Kagimba, member of Ugandan government