1. The transition from juvenile to adult criminal careers Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research

2. Background In 1994 Coumarelos followed up 33,900 juveniles until the age of 18 and found that 70 per cent only have one court appearance This finding has underpinned a policy of minimal intervention with first offenders –However….. Her study did not follow young offenders into adulthood It also suffered from sample bias (i.e.it had few offenders whose first court appearance occurred when they were young)

3. The present study Identified all (5,476) juvenile offenders making their first court appearance in the NSW Children’s Court in 1995 (n.b.this is before the Young Offenders Act 1997) Followed them up for eight years (from first appearance in 1995 until 31 st December 2003) Follow up was done using the NSW Reoffending Database which enables individual person’s court appearances to be linked

4. Research questions 1.How many times do juvenile offenders re-offend? 2.What proportion re-offend as adults? 3.What proportion go on to receive a prison sentence from an adult court? 4.How long does it take them to re-offend 5.How do the answers to (1) to (4) vary by age at first court appearance, gender, ATSI status and offence?

5. How often do juveniles reoffend?

6. Recidivism among young offenders Of young people who appeared in the children’s court in 1995, within 8 years: –68 % had had a subsequent court appearance –43% had reappeared in a Children’s Court –57% had appeared in an adult court

7. Persons with first Children’s Court appearance in 1995, average number of reappearances in eight years Av.reappearances Age at first court appearance10-145.2 15-163.4 17-182.4 p<0.0001 Indigenous statusNon-Indigenous2.8 Indigenous8.3 p<0.0001 GenderFemale2.0 Male3.8 p<0.0001 Principal offence at firstViolent3.5 appearanceProperty3.6 Other3.2 p<0.0001 Total3.5

8. Figure 1: Number of reappearances predicted by negative binomial regression: by Indigenous status, age at first CA and gender 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 10-14 years15-16 years17-18 years Age at the first court appearance Non-ATSI male Non-ATSI female ATSI female ATSI male Offence at first court appearance had no effect

9. What percentage reoffend as adults and end up in prison?

10. % adult court% adult prison Age at first court app10-1458.117.8 15-1657.213.1 17-1857.1 p= 0.84 9.8 p<0.001 Indigenous statusNon-Indigenous52.69.7 Indigenous90.5 p<0.001 36.1 p<0.001 GenderFemale38.44.9 Male62.0 p<0.001 15.0 p<0.001 Offence at 1 st appViolent59.614.4 Property56.613.7 Other57.6 p=0.31 11.5 p=0.044 Total57.413.0 Persons with first Children’s Court appearance in 1995, % in adult court and adult prison within eight years

11. 0 20 40 60 80 100 Non-ATSIATSI Female Male Age at first court appearance and offence had no effect % Figure 2: Risk of juvenile offenders appearing in adult court within 8 years as predicted by logistic regression: by Indigenous status, age and gender

12. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 10-14 years15-16 years17-18 years Age at the first court appearance Non-ATSI Female Non-ATSI male ATSI female ATSI male % Figure 3: Risk of juvenile offenders being sent to adult prison within 8 years as predicted by logistic regression: by Indigenous status, age and gender

13. Do juvenile offending patterns influence adult reoffending and imprisonment? To examine the impact of juvenile offending on adult offending we need to give every offender an equal chance to acquire an adult conviction This means we can’t look at prior record and age at first court appearance in the same analysis So to examine the effect of prior record we restrict our attention to the 1,311 juveniles who were 16 at their first court appearance

14. % adult court% adult prison Indigenous statusNon-Indigenous53.19.5 Indigenous93.2 p<0.001 33.3 p<0.001 GenderFemale36.14.9 Male62.5 p<0.001 13.7 p<0.001 Reappearances inNone44.24.8 in Children’s CourtOne63.612.5 Two or more84.5 p<0.001 30.2 p<0.001 Custodial sentencesNone55.910.3 in Children’s CourtOne or more76.9 p<0.001 37.2 p<0.001 Total57.111.9 16 year olds with first Children’s Court appearance in 1995, % in adult court and adult prison within eight years

15. 0 20 40 60 80 100 1 time2 times3+ times No of children’s court appearances Non-ATSI female Non-ATSI male ATSI female ATSI male % Figure 4: Probability of 16 year old juvenile offenders appearing in adult court within 8 years: by children’s court appearances, Indigenous status, age and gender

16. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1 time2 times3+ times Number of Children’s Court appearances Non-ATSI female Non-ATSI male ATSI female ATSI male % Figure 5: Probability of 16 year old juvenile offenders being sent to adult prison within 8 years: by children’s court appearances, Indigenous status, age and gender

17. How long do juvenile offenders take to re-offend?

18. Survival time by offence type

19. Survival time by gender

20. Survival time by age at first court appearance

21. Survival time by ATSI status

22. Summary of main findings Within 8 years of their first court appearance (CA)… –68% of juvenile offenders reappear in court –43% reappear in the Children’s Court –57% reappear in an adult court –13% have been imprisoned by an adult court Amongst these offenders… –The average rate of reappearance is 3.5 over 8 yrs –The average time to the second court appearance is 21 months

23. Summary of main findings (cont) However, within 8 years of their first CA… –58% aged 10-14 and 90% of Indigenous offenders will have re-appeared in an adult court –18% aged 10-14 and 36% of Indigenous offenders will have received a prison sentence (from an adult court) During this period… –Indigenous offenders will average 8 re-appearances –Offenders aged 10-14 will average 5 reappearances –Indigenous offenders aged 10-14 will average 12 re- appearances

24. Policy implications We need programs to reduce the risk of re- offending amongst young people making their first appearance in court We need to focus these programs on Indigenous offenders and males who are aged 10-14 at their first court appearance It is hard to mount effective community-based interventions with young offenders, however, without involving their families and schools Whatever we do to reduce juvenile offending therefore requires a multi-agency approach