1. 2011/2012 Winter and Spring Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Southern Plains Drought Assessment and Outlook Forum Fort Worth, TX November 29, 2011 Victor Murphy

2. Year to Year Precipitation Variability a Given in Texas Data Courtesy of SCIPP

3. Oklahoma has Seen an Entire Generation of Green! Data Courtesy of SCIPP

4. New Mexico has also seen a Generation of Green! Data Courtesy of SCIPP

5. But, Against this Backdrop of Wetness Lurks La Nina Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling

6. Scatter Plots also Show Strong ENSO Correlation for Southern Plains Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling

7. La Nina Composites Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling

8. But, 2010-2011 an Outlier for Drought Severity Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling

9. La Nina: Déjà vu all Over Again

10. Moderate Strength La Nina Expected to Peak in a Month or Two.

11. NOAA/NCEP Coupled Forecast Series Model Output for Precipitation AMJ MJJ JJA FMA JFM

12. DJF Precipitation Forecast from NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Odds 3 to 1 in favor of drier than normal vs. wetter than normal.

13. MAM Precipitation Forecast from NWS Climate Prediction Center Odds 2 to 1 in favor of drier than normal vs. wetter than normal.

14. November-March are Individually Among the 5 Driest Months of the Year in Texas. Significant Drought Relief this Time of Year Very Unlikely during La Nina. Data Courtesy of SCIPP

15. Little Hope for Relief During the Winter in OK also. Data Courtesy of SCIPP

16. Recharge Window Even Smaller in NM. Data Courtesy of SCIPP

17. 12 month Percent of Average Precipitation through the end of October 2011.

18. Through April, Drought Most Likely to Persist in southern NM and western TX.

19. Probability of Precipitation Required to end Current Drought Conditions in 6 Months.

20. New Mexico Spring Precipitation by Tercile 1.85” 2.55”

21. Texas Spring Rainfall by Tercile 6.5” 8.25”

22. Oklahoma Spring Precipitation by Tercile 9.5” 11.5”

23. Louisiana Spring Rainfall by Tercile

24. Temperature Trends During JJA During the past 100 Years Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling, ESRL

25. Does October-June Precipitation Foretell Expected Summer Rainfall? No. Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling

26. Summer 2011 Forecast from CPC.

27. Takeaway Messages La Nina is returning for the 2011-2012 cold season. Thus, through May, odds of below normal precipitation are 2 to 3 times greater than above normal. Any significant drought improvement not likely until April at earliest, when spring rainfall begins. Summer temperatures likely warmer than normal, but not likely to emulate the historic heat of last summer.

28. Questions?? Victor Murphy NWS Southern Region Climate Service Program Manager 817-966-4216 x 130 Victor.Murphy@noaa.gov

30. In General, Precipitation has been Increasing in the Southern Plains Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling, ESRL