1. Hard Choices ahead For a Secure Low Carbon Future Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences CPRE - 28th July 2005 CRed Meeting our Future Energy Needs

2. Electricity Statistics: South Norfolk Each house in South Norfolk consumes, on average 5797 kWh per year 50% more than a house in Norwich South Norfolk consumes a total of 524 million kWh per year (291 million domestic). A wind farm the size of Scroby Sands would supply 54% of domestic needs for whole of South Norfolk (or 30% of total demand) Would save ~ 80 000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year or 45 000 hot air balloons each year. The alternative: Persuade 32 000 motorists never to drive the car again Or 320 000 motorists to drive 1000 miles less each year.

3. Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikely If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?

4. Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

5. The Gas Scenario Assumes all new non-renewable generation is from gas. Replacements for ageing plant Additions to deal with demand changes Assumes Renewables Targets are met 10.4% by 2010 20% by 2020 High Growth – Business as Usual Low Growth capped at 420 TWH by 2010 Rise in emissions 2005 – 2010 loss of nuclear generating capacity Fall in emissions 2010 – 2020 loss of nuclear and coal capacity Little new generating capacity available before 2010 except Wind and small scale Electricity Options for the Future

6. Low Growth Scenario Capped at 420 TWh Represents a cumulative 1.5% per annum per household reduction below historic trend 33% CO 2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990 62% CO 2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990 68 % increase in gas consumption ( Gas Scenario) cf 2002 High Growth Scenario Business as Usual 0.3 % CO 2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990 54% CO 2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990 257% increase in gas consumption ( Gas Scenario) cf 2002

7. Electricity Options for the Future Targets for renewables are achieved Diverse Mix of Non-Renewables 40% gas: 20% Nuclear: 40% Coal Low Growth: Capped at 420 TWh Represents a cumulative 1.5% per annum per household reduction below historic trend. 28% reduction in CO 2 (cf 1990) 10% increase in gas (cf 2002) High Growth: Business as Usual Represents 2.3% growth 10% increase in CO 2 (cf 1990) 51% increase in gas (cf 2002) Some New Build Nuclear may be necessary even in most optimistic scenario. No More Renewables up to 20 new nuclear stations may be needed.

8. Our Choices: They are difficult A diverse renewable supply will be local, and will be less prone to cascade power cuts such as those recently in US, London, Italy, Denmark. Conventional generation is based on large units: 500 – 660 MW enough to supply over 1 million homes. These do fail from time to time, and require much greater backup than required for the failure of a few wind turbines. Renewable generation is less prone to major interruption We must not get drawn into a single issue debate – a rational debate covering all the alternatives is needed. Available Renewables: Nuclear: Conservation Local Generation of Electricity - Saves 8 – 9% on transmission losses - Communities should make decision Local wind generators, biomass Individual microgeneration, photovoltaic, individual wind turbines

9. Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine. On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity Involve the local Community

10. The Future If we continue on the business as usual approach our electricity consumption will be 35% higher than now and whether we have remote renewables, nuclear or fossil fuel additional transmission lines will be needed. Local generation will help significantly. Individual household generation – DC. Communities should decide on the approach that is best for them – but a decision is needed soon - leaving things as they are will have attendant security issues. Myths need to be dispelled. Nuclear/Wind/Energy Use Less radioactivity is emitted from nuclear power stations (including Sellafield) per unit of electricity generated than from equivalent coal fired power stations.

11. Myths on Wind Power NETA has to cope with the loss of Sizewell B through a reactor trip. This loss amounts to around 1.2 times the total installed capacity of wind at present. NETA also has to cope with sudden changes in demand (up to 2.5 times Sizewell B) in a matter of minutes e.g. from TV scheduling. Experience from Denmark shows that the normal maximum change in any one hour from Wind Output is no more than 18% on one occasion in a year. With a larger country area the figures for diverse wind generation will be less in UK. One will not save Carbon Dioxide because power stations are running in case they are needed. There is very little truth in this. The amount of carbon dioxide emitted is dependant on the output of a fossil fuel power station. If it is running under low load it will emit only a very small amount of extra CO 2. Allowing for this, the effect of standby reserve will amount to a maximum of 15 – 20 gms per kWh of Wind Energy compared to 430 for gas or 1000 for coal. A substantial saving is made. Renewable Energy: The Issues Isn’t Energy from Renewables unreliable? – we need secure supply

12. Whilst the wind turbine is considered 'ugly' by some residents of Swaffham, most consider it a unique landmark and see it as an asset to the town. Most of the local population are proud of the turbine and it seems to have had a positive impact on the town in a number of ways. I do believe that were it not for the number of visitors to Swaffham, coming to see the turbine for whatever reason, we would not have such a high influx of buyers from out of the area. This has increased house prices, and the prosperity of the area. Our Choices: They are difficult Affect House Prices Evidence from Estate Agents in the Swaffham Area say they have a positive effect on house prices.

13. Our Choices: They are difficult - Myths Latest some evidence to suggest that a few birds are killed typically 3 per installed MW per year except in a few locations. the oldest wind farm in UK on Burgar Hill has an RSPB reserve right next to it. in Orkney a party from UEA came across new fewer than 3 dead birds on roads in 2 days in an area remote turbines. Currently UK has around 850 MW installed perhaps 2500 killed a year Estimates of 1 million killed each year by vehicles British Trust for Ornithology estimate 100 million birds collide with fixed objects of whom one third are killed Wind Energy: The Issues Wind Turbines kill birds

14. Our Choices: They are difficult Wind Turbines are beautiful! » Wind Turbines are Ugly! What is the consequence of not using wind alongside conservation, biomass and nuclear etc?. Insecure supply of Electricity when we import fossil fuels from Russia The North Norfolk Coal Field Increased Famine in many part of the world Increased flooding 20 new nuclear power stations in the UK by 2025 Increased incidence of extreme weather events.

15. Some Media Articles might be counter productive Saturday 28 th May 2005 If this statement were true then a mini would do 16944 miles per litre or 77000 miles per gallon

16. Conclusions Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Security more likely in future. Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years. Otherwise Nuclear? Carbon Sequestration will not be available until at least 2020 to make coal an option. Security of Supply questions wisdom of relying on gas Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.

17. If we don’t make decisions soon: Dried up river beds in summer/droughts Increased flooding in winter How do we convince people to turn off items on standby? Not opting for local generation and individuals not facing up to their responsibilities will mean more centralised generation/more pylons. Should we adopt a mix of renewables and one further generation of nuclear – phasing out dependence on fossil fuels? Are we happy with wind turbines – the only real issue here is aesthetics? Are we happy with reduction of biodiversity and related issues that large scale biomass exploitation might bring? Are we prepared to pay much more for our energy (Photo-voltaics)? Do we want to return to nuclear? Even if Carbon Sequestration becomes a reality and we could use coal again are we happy with the prospect of a North Norfolk Coal Field? Are we comfortable with the Energy Security Issues implied by an over- reliance on gas? Which is the Least Worst Option? The decision is ours

18. WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/ This presentation is available at www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm The government has largely ducked the issue about Energy/Climate Change and Energy Security. Decisions are needed very soon to avoid the effects of climate change. Inaction or NO decision is NOT a viable option Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room Conclusions