1. Evidence and Liberty: The Promise of Experimental Criminology Lawrence W. Sherman Wolfson Professor of Criminology Director Jerry Lee Centre for Experimental Criminology Institute of Criminology Cambridge University

2. OUR PURPOSE: Jerry Lee Centre of Experimental Criminology Advancement of human liberty on the basis of Experimental Evidence

3. Evidence and Liberty “You will know the truth, and the truth will set you free” John 8:32.

4. 1781: “Property” Overboard?

5. The 1785 Latin Prize Anne Liceat Invitos in Servitutem Dare? (“Is it lawful to make slaves of others against their will?“)

6. Evidence Giant Thomas Clarkson

7. Wade’s Mill, Herts.

8. Sugar Boycott 1791

11. Abu Ghraib Prison

12. 7 RCT Tests of A Drug on Infant Mortality

13. From Joanna Shapland, et al, 2008, p. 27 Effects of Restorative Justice on Re-Conviction

14. Did Program Cause Crime Drop?

15. Randomized Controlled Trial RCT: COMPARISON or NET difference

16. From Joanna Shapland, et al, 2008, p. 27 Effects of Restorative Justice on Re-Conviction

17. Early Release From Prison

18. Fortune-Tellers

19. “Not Experimentally Proven”

20. Crown Court Sentences “Not Experimentally Proven”

21. Three Hardest Words I Don’t Know….

22. Evidence Into action Bottom-up Discretion Top-Down Guidance

23. Bottom-Up Discretion

24. Top-Down Guidance

25. From Joanna Shapland, et al, 2008, p. 27 Effects of Restorative Justice on Re-Conviction

26. List of Studies Included Offender N 1. Australia RISE Canberra <30 years violence 100 2. Australia RISE Canberra juvenile personal property249 3. Australia RISE Canberra juvenile shoplifting142 4. Australia RISE Canberra Driving Under Influence 897 5. US Indianapolis juvenile property/violence 782 6. US Bethlehem PA juvenile property143 7. US Bethlehem PA juvenile violence 79 8. UK Northumbria juvenile property/violence 208 9. UK Northumbria adult property 63 10. UK Northumbria adult assault 44 11. UK London robbery 88 12. UK London burglary167 13. UK Thames Valley violence – probation 64 14. UK Thames Valley violence – prison 94 Total offender N = 3,120

27. Conventional Wisdom RJ is best for less serious crime “Inappropriate” for violence RJ is best for children (under 18) “Inappropriate” for Adults

28. RESULTS 2-Year Reconvictions (Standard UK criterion for success) Frequency Prevalence Cost

29. First Question In general, what effect does Face-to-face RJ meetings have on frequency of reconvictions, across different points of criminal justice process with personal victims intended to be there? ANSWER: 9 out of 10 tests show less crime

30. Personal Victims: % Change* in Reconviction Frequency *per person, RJ Group compared with Control Group

31. Question 2 What Effect Does RJ have on Frequency of Reconviction All tests 10 with victims present 2 not victims present Answer: 10 out of 12 show less frequency Not one increase in UK (Australia only)

32. Percent Change* in the Frequency of Reconviction *per person, RJ Group compared with Control Group

33. Question 3 What effect does Face-to-face RJ have on Frequency of Reconviction In Violent Crime Experiments Youth and Adult Combined Answer: 5 out of 5 violence tests show less crime

34. Percent Change* in the Frequency of Reconviction – Violence Exps *per person, RJ Group compared with Control Group

35. Question 4 What Effect Does RJ have on Frequency of Reconviction on Property Crime Offenders Youth and Adult Combined Answer: 3 out 4 tests show less crime Effects not as big, or as prevalent, as for violence RJ WORKS BETTER FOR MORE SERIOUS CRIME

36. Percent Change* in the Frequency of Reconviction – Property Exps *per person, RJ Group compared with Control Group

37. Question 5 What Effect Does Face-to-Face RJ Have on Youth Crime Property and Violent US, UK, Australia? Answer: 3 out of 4 tests show less crime

38. Percent Change* in the Frequency of Reconviction – Youth Exps *per person, RJ Group compared with Control Group

39. Question 6 What Effect Does Face-to-Face RJ Have on Adult Crime Property and Violent US, UK, Australia? Answer: 6 out of 6 tests on adults = less crime Effects bigger than for juveniles

40. Percent Change* in the Frequency of Reconviction – Adult Exps *per person, RJ Group compared with Control Group

41. Question 7 Does Face-to-Face RJ Reduce frequency of reconviction more when developers do their own evaluation, or when someone else evaluates the RJ conferences in a randomized trial? ANSWER: Bigger effects with independent evaluators!

42. Percent Change* Reconviction Frequency—Our Own Tests *per person, RJ Group compared with Control Group

43. Change* Reconviction Frequency— Independent Evaluators *per person, RJ Group compared with Control Group

44. Yes, Minister --All policies decided at Highest levels --More politics --Less evidence?

45. A NICE Approach National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence

46. NICE Hypertension Guidance

47. Hot Spots of Crime (Density Distribution of Violent Offenses in Tokyo)

48. A NICE, NPIA (?) Approach National Policing Improvement Agency

49. Koper Curve

50. Algorithm for Hot Spot Patrol 1.Define Hot Spots 2.Identify Locations 3.Add Extra Police Patrols 4.Make All Patrols Unpredictable 5.Stay 11-14 minutes Only 6.Add extra patrol if crime persists

51. Evidence-Based Policing

52. From Evidence to Liberty 1.Identify key questions

53. From Evidence to Liberty 1.Identify key questions 2. Formulate testable hypotheses

54. From Evidence to Liberty 1.Identify key questions 2. Formulate testable hypotheses 3. Conduct randomized experiments

55. From Evidence to Liberty 1.Identify key questions 2. Formulate testable hypotheses 3. Conduct randomized experiments 4. Conduct quasi-experiments

56. From Evidence to Liberty 1.Identify key questions 2. Formulate testable hypotheses 3. Conduct randomized experiments 4. Conduct quasi-experiments 5. Identify all good evidence

57. From Evidence to Liberty 6. Synthesize in META-ANALYSIS

58. From Evidence to Liberty 6. Synthesize in META-ANALYSIS 7. Present to small expert groups

59. From Evidence to Liberty 6. Synthesize in META-ANALYSIS 7. Present research to small expert groups 8. Develop succinct guidance

60. From Evidence to Liberty 6. Synthesize in META-ANALYSIS 7. Present research to small expert groups 8. Develop succinct guidance 9. Communicate or promulgate the guidance

61. From Evidence to Liberty 6. Synthesize in META-ANALYSIS 7. Present research to small expert groups 8. Develop succinct guidance 9. Communicate or promulgate the guidance 10. Test Methods for compliance

62. Prospective Meta-Analysis By A “REX-Net”: Randomized Experiments Network

63. The Promise of Experimental Criminology The advancement of human liberty on the basis of experimental evidence

64. Evidence and Liberty: The Promise of Experimental Criminology Lawrence W. Sherman Wolfson Professor of Criminology Director Jerry Lee Centre for Experimental Criminology Institute of Criminology Cambridge University