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Down Under to Down Wonder – an Open Australia weathers the Global storm
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Over the past few years the global economy has been a fascinating place….
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Not so long ago things were looking pretty grim….
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Trading partner growth had been hammered right across the board
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The world witnessed one of the most drastic collapses in trade in economic history
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From an Australian point of view we’ve gone from down under to down wonder…….
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The great escape - Australia’s economic performance was a stand out
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Especially in the labour market
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Australia has performed well by OECD standards
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The old labour market story in the north atlantic economies is not reflected in the evidence
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The great trade reforms of the past 25 years gave us a good base to withstand the GFC
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At times like these, there’s a lot of anxiety about trade issues and globalisation…..
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Trade has been associated with higher living standards
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Australia’s attitude towards Asia: ‘Once were worriers’ because of the ‘The Tyranny of Distance’
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We are now in the right place at the right time: ‘The Tyranny of distance’ has been replaced by ‘The Power of Proximity’
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Japan’s economic development has partially driven Australia’s export growth in the past
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Now it will be China, India and ASEAN who will drive much of our export growth in the 21 st century
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China’s demand has helped to promote Australia’s prosperity……
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Shanghai of the tiger: China is leading the charge in North Asia
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With a little bit of help from my assigned translator
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Sent airborne by Australia’s first female Prime Minister….
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Doing it tough…with Kate Fischer and Pru Goward
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To stimulate or not to stimulate: some fiscal packages have been effective - ‘bamboo shoots’ as much as ‘green shoots’
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Looking west, there’s room to grow income-wise
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Exporter confidence in China remained high during the GFC
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Even in terms of SMEs China is a chart buster
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Where the bolly hell are you?
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India has shot up like a 2020 game 0 2 4 6 0 2 4 6 Australian Exports to India Share of total, current prices Source: ABS Share of merchandise exports % Share of services exports 04/0508/0900/0196/9792/93
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Gilly is going into bat for the ‘Gong
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Australia’s financial institutions have remained robust
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Given the GFC and the ‘recession porn’ faced our exporters have been a global surprise package
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A quiet revolution - Australia has built a strong ‘heartland’ of true blue exporters Non-Exporters ‘Domestic Businesses’ Exporters/ Non-Exporters ‘Opportunistic/ Irregular’ Exporters ‘Heartland’
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33 Short-term prospects: (3 months) Negative export growth but increasing Medium-term prospects: (12 months) Positive export growth and accelerating Australian exporters kept their nerve NB: Don’t know responses have been excluded from the analysis Change in export orders Net Change 15% (actual) - 10% (actual) + 10% (expected) + 40% (expected)
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34 Australian exporters were positive about employment More than half of the exporters (59%) are optimistic regarding their profitability over the next 12 months expecting it to increase. Almost half of the exporters (47%) are planning to keep the staff numbers the same while 45% of exporters are likely to increase their staff head count. Wage increases are likely in over two thirds of the exporters (69%). More than half of the exporters (59%) are optimistic regarding their profitability over the next 12 months expecting it to increase. Almost half of the exporters (47%) are planning to keep the staff numbers the same while 45% of exporters are likely to increase their staff head count. Wage increases are likely in over two thirds of the exporters (69%).
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Australian exporters and workers were flexible in terms of hours 33.6 33.8 34.0 34.2 34.4 34.6 34.8 33.6 33.8 34.0 34.2 34.4 34.6 34.8 Average Hours Worked Mid-month of quarter Source: ABS 2009 Hrs 200820072006200520042003 Hrs
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Now our trading partner growth has bounced back
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East Asia has been an important part of that story
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The emerging economies are really geeing up the G7
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There’s plenty of action for Australian exporters in the emerging world (source: UBS)
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Easy rider: Steppe-ing out in Mongolia
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Australia’s strength in Asia is a good story for northern hemisphere investors
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A good airport economist knows that Australian exports are well diversified
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Taking a walk on the supply side
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There are now new challenges that require skillful economic management
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Demography is destiny?
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Japan: Land of the greying sun?
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China: getting old before they get rich?
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India: Poppadom preach?
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Many experienced exporters have survived crises before SOURCE: Sensis ® Business Index
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Despite some Gen X and Gen Y growth, global SMEs are mainly run by baby- boomers
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The GFC shook most of the world….
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In Australia we’ve been successful as we’ve married an open economy to successful social reform
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One big happy free trade agreement……
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Down Under to Down Wonder – an Open Australia weathers the Global storm
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