1. 1 Agricultural Science Association Conference 2000 Irish Agriculture - Painting the Economic Framework Alan Matthews Trinity College Dublin

2. 2 The issue zThe Irish nonfarm economy is booming zWhat is the appropriate agricultural policy response? zShould policy continue to subsidise farming activity at current levels… zOr should the opportunity be taken to pursue a more vigorous structural adjustment policy?

3. 3 Agriculture’s contribution to the Irish economy

4. 4 EU: Agriculture as % GDP, 1999

5. 5 Farm Numbers Declining

6. 6 Direct payments increasing AgriFood 2010

7. 7 Subsidy element of agricultural gross value added, 1999 4% of GNP

8. 8 Subsidy element of agricultural gross value added, 1999

9. 9

10. 10 Subsidy element of agricultural gross value added, 1999

11. 11 Direct payment share in farm incomes, 1998, NFS data

12. 12 EU support to farmers (bn euros)

13. 13 EU and US support per farmer (thousand euros)

14. 14 Nominal assistance coefficients

15. 15 Composition of EU farm support

16. 16 Can support be sustained? zWTO Millenium Round negotiations ynegotiations started but uncertain outcome zEU enlargement ynecessary to revisit Agenda 2000 zThe future of direct payments ymodulation ydegressivity ydecoupling

17. 17 Agricultural competitiveness at world market prices zDairying likely to expand zBeef - the big uncertainty zPigs, poultry, horticulture to continue as at present zCereals and sugar beet to contract zForestry may expand depending on level of competing subsidies

18. 18 Land sales, 1990-1998

19. 19 Farmers’ managerial experience

20. 20 Ensuring future agricultural competitiveness zStructural adjustment to favour fewer and larger farms zTechnical innovation and research zImproved managerial skills zTighter links to consumer markets z… is it time to change the terms of the debate?