1. Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre ETReC 2007 George C. Craig DLR-Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre

2. Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Folie 2 > Vortrag > Autor THORPEX-COPS Relevance Large scale influence on local high-impact weather Hovmöller (time-longitude) diagram of the 250-mb meridional wind component (ms -1 ) for the period 28 July - 14 August 2002 and the latitudinal belt 40-60º N. A Rossby wave train was excited by cyclogenesis off Japan, followed by rapid downstream development of high-amplitude Rossby waves, culminating in extreme flooding in central Europe. Figure reproduced from THORPEX International Science Plan

3. Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Folie 3 > Vortrag > Autor ETReC 2007 Goals 1. Predictability - quantify relative roles of synoptic environment and local scales (link COPS) 2. Sensitive Regions - summer season, where timescales are shorter, moist physics important 3. Observing Systems - test potential of cost effective targeted observations (link EURORISK PREVIEW) 4. Impact of observations through global and regional forecast chain (link D-PHASE)

4. Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Folie 4 > Vortrag > Autor ETReC 2007 Strategy and Timeline ATReC 2003 timeline T-5 days select target region (subjective) T-4 days compute sensitive regions (imprecisely defined) T-3 days targeted observations (limited sampling) T-2.5 days improved forecast (modestly) ETReC 2007 timeline All times fixed target regions T-3 days compute sensitive regions (focused by short lead time) T-2 days targeted observations (better coverage) T-1.5 days improved forecast (significantly?)

5. Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Folie 5 > Vortrag > Autor Proposed ETReC 2007 Target Regions COPS D-PHASE MEDEX CYPRIM

6. Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Folie 6 > Vortrag > Autor ETReC 2007 Observing Systems 1. Targeted additional Radiosonde, AMDAR, ASAP EUCOS proposed operational observing system

7. Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Folie 7 > Vortrag > Autor ETReC 2007 Observing Systems 2. Airborne wind and water vapor lidars (DLR Falcon) ECMWF analysis for 19 June 2002, 6 UTC, with contours of geopotential height and specific humidity (color coded) in 400 hPa, overlaid with a DLR Falcon flight route for mapping the stratospheric intrusion.

8. Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Folie 8 > Vortrag > Autor Sensitive Region Verification Area ETReC 2007 Sensitive Regions Methods MeteoFrance - Singular Vectors ECMWF - Moist Singular Vectors Met Office - Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter