1. PJ Haney POL 373 Spring 2005 The Public and Foreign Policy Public Opinion Trends Elections The Media

2. PJ Haney POL 373 Spring 2005 Public Opinion Trends Elites, Interested- & Disinterested-Public http://www.ccfr.org/globalviews2004/index.htm http://www.ccfr.org/globalviews2004/index.htmHoneymoon Rally ‘Round the Flag Halo Public Diplomacy (PsyOps)

3. PJ Haney POL 373 Spring 2005 Prudent Public? Bruce Jentleson: Public knows what it likes concerning the use of force Impose Foreign Policy Restrain (FPR) Force Internal Political Change (IPC)

4. PJ Haney POL 373 Spring 2005 Support Use of Force? Libya 1986: IPC & FPR Polls higher if “asked” FPR Polls higher if “asked” FPR Panama 1989: IPC Support after operation: Halo Support after operation: Halo Persian Gulf Reflagging 1987: FPR Support high, despite RR low credibility Support high, despite RR low credibility Nicaragua mid-1980s: IPC Support Low Support Low

5. PJ Haney POL 373 Spring 2005 One more good one-- Afghanistan late-1980s: IPC & FPR Mixed goals, mixed support Mixed goals, mixed support Support for US-supported Mujaheddin fell to all-time lows following Soviet withdrawal in October 1988 Support for US-supported Mujaheddin fell to all-time lows following Soviet withdrawal in October 1988

6. PJ Haney POL 373 Spring 2005 Elections and Foreign Policy Foreign Policy can affect elections: “Daisy” commercial in 1964 “Daisy” commercial in 1964 Nixon’s Secret Plan to end the Vietnam War Nixon’s Secret Plan to end the Vietnam War Dukakis’s tank in 1988 Dukakis’s tank in 1988 Re-Made Daisy in 2000 Re-Made Daisy in 2000 Iraq, OBL, in 2004?? Iraq, OBL, in 2004?? See http://www.ammi.org/livingroomcandidate/ See http://www.ammi.org/livingroomcandidate/ http://www.ammi.org/livingroomcandidate/

7. PJ Haney POL 373 Spring 2005 Other Electoral Trends Rallies, Haloes, and the Diversionary Theory of War? Wag the Dog Wag the Dog Carter and the Hostages in 1980 Carter and the Hostages in 1980 Bush and Saddam in summer 1992 Bush and Saddam in summer 1992 U.S.S. Cole in 2000? U.S.S. Cole in 2000? Keep it off the Agenda? Bosnia in 1995? Bosnia in 1995? Middle East in 2000? Middle East in 2000?

8. PJ Haney POL 373 Spring 2005 How Elections Affect Foreign Policy Elections pick winners Winners bring people into government with them Elected and appointed officials make policy decisions They (President and Congress) put people into the Judiciary Bush differences from Gore, e.g. Bush differences from Gore, e.g.

9. PJ Haney POL 373 Spring 2005 Media and Foreign Policy Media as a Medium Information deliverers and Opinion shapers? Information deliverers and Opinion shapers? Views also shaped President via persuasive communication and symbolic politics Views also shaped President via persuasive communication and symbolic politics “Indexing” “Indexing” “Priming” “Priming” Presidential Advantages Media not a Monolith

10. PJ Haney POL 373 Spring 2005 Media Bias? Liberal bias? Business bias? CNN Effect Uncritical acceptance and incomplete Stenographers? Stenographers?